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Bush Approval at 51%

Presidential contest remains tight

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup Poll shows a slight improvement in President George W. Bush's overall job approval rating, while the presidential contest remains essentially unchanged. In a two-way contest with Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, Bush enjoys a slight lead among likely voters, 50% to 47%, little changed from the 51% to 47% lead he enjoyed in a July 30-Aug. 1 poll.

Presidential Contest -- Kerry and Bush

 

Kerry/ Edwards

Bush/ Cheney

OTHER
(vol.)

NEITHER
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

Likely voters

2004 Aug 9-11

47

50

*

1

2

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

47

51

*

*

2

2004 Jul 19-21

49

47

*

2

2

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

50

46

*

2

2

2004 Jun 21-23

48

49

*

1

2

2003 Jun 3-6

50

44

1

2

3

2004 May 21-23

49

47

*

1

3

2004 May 7-9

47

48

1

2

2

2004 May 2-4

49

48

*

1

2

2004 Apr 16-18

46

51

*

2

1

2004 Apr 5-8

45

48

1

4

2

2004 Mar 26-28

47

51

--

1

1

2004 Mar 5-7

52

44

1

2

1

2004 Feb 16-17

55

43

*

1

1

2004 Feb 6-8

48

49

*

1

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

53

46

--

*

1

2004 Jan 9-11

43

55

*

1

1

Registered voters

2004 Aug 9-11

47

48

1

2

2

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

48

48

*

1

3

2004 Jul 19-21

49

45

*

3

3

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

51

44

*

2

3

2004 Jun 21-23

49

45

1

2

3

2004 Jun 3-6

49

44

*

3

4

2004 May 21-23

48

46

*

2

4

2004 May 7-9

50

44

*

3

3

2004 May 2-4

47

47

1

2

3

2004 Apr 16-18

46

50

*

2

2

2004 Apr 5-8

48

46

1

3

3

2004 Mar 26-28

46

49

*

2

3

2004 Mar 5-7

50

45

1

2

2

2004 Feb 16-17

51

46

*

2

1

2004 Feb 6-8

49

48

*

1

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

51

46

--

1

2

2004 Jan 9-11

40

57

--

2

1

2003 Nov 10-12

46

52

--

1

1

2003 Sep 19-21

48

47

1

2

2

(vol.) Volunteered response

^

Vice presidential candidates Edwards and Cheney added beginning with the July 8-11, 2004 survey.

Among all registered voters, the race is just a one-point difference, with Bush at 48% and Kerry at 47%. The late July/early August poll had each candidate at 48%.

If independent Ralph Nader is included in the ballot, Bush receives 48% among likely voters, Kerry 46%, and Nader 3%. Among registered voters, Bush still has a one-point lead over Kerry, 46% to 45%, and Nader gets 5%.

Presidential Contest -- Kerry, Bush, and Nader

 

Kerry/
Edwards

Bush/
Cheney

Nader/
Camejo

OTHER
(vol.)

NONE
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

%

Likely voters

2004 Aug 9-11

46

48

3

*

1

2

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

45

51

2

*

1

1

2004 Jul 19-21

47

46

4

*

1

2

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

50

45

2

*

1

2

2004 Jun 21-23

47

48

3

*

*

2

2004 Jun 3-6

49

43

5

1

*

2

2004 May 21-23

47

46

4

*

1

2

2004 May 7-9

45

47

5

--

2

1

2004 May 2-4

47

47

3

*

1

2

2004 Apr 16-18

44

50

4

*

*

2

2004 Apr 5-8

43

47

4

1

2

3

2004 Mar 26-28

45

49

4

--

1

1

2004 Mar 5-7

50

44

2

1

1

2

Registered voters

2004 Aug 9-11

45

46

5

*

1

3

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

47

48

2

*

1

2

2004 Jul 19-21

47

43

5

*

2

3

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

50

42

4

*

1

3

2004 Jun 21-23

46

45

6

1

*

2

2004 Jun 3-6

45

42

7

1

1

4

2004 May 21-23

46

44

6

*

1

3

2004 May 7-9

46

41

7

*

3

3

2004 May 2-4

44

45

6

1

1

3

2004 Apr 16-18

44

47

5

*

1

3

2004 Apr 5-8

46

45

5

*

2

2

2004 Mar 26-28

43

48

5

--

1

3

2004 Mar 5-7

47

45

5

*

1

2

(vol.) Volunteered response



The changes from the last poll are within the polls' margins of error, suggesting the contest has been essentially steady over the past several weeks. Indeed, the average levels of support for the candidates in the past three polls are identical to the current results.

The current poll also shows that 51% of Americans approve, and 46% disapprove, of the way Bush is handling his job as president. For the last three months, Bush has averaged 48% approval and 49% disapproval. The current figures are a slight improvement for Bush and represent the first time he has been above the symbolically important 50% level since mid-April.

Bush's approval ratings remain essentially unchanged on the economy (46% approval) and foreign affairs (44%), with 51% disapproving of his performance in each area.

The slight improvement in Bush's overall job rating could result from slightly more positive assessments of his handling of the terrorism and Iraq issues. While a majority of Americans continue to disapprove of Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq (45% approve, 52% disapprove), this rating has improved slightly from a 42% approval to 56% disapproval rating in a June 21-23 poll.

Bush continues to receive his highest marks on his handling of the terrorism issue, with 57% approving and 40% disapproving. This rating is slightly better than the 54% to 44% rating Bush received in mid-June.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,017 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 9-11, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 729 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 55% of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 897 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for – [ROTATED: John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats (or) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

 

Kerry/ Edwards

Bush/ Cheney

OTHER
(vol.)

NEITHER
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

Likely voters

2004 Aug 9-11

47

50

*

1

2

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

47

51

*

*

2

2004 Jul 19-21

49

47

*

2

2

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

50

46

*

2

2

2004 Jun 21-23

48

49

*

1

2

2003 Jun 3-6

50

44

1

2

3

2004 May 21-23

49

47

*

1

3

2004 May 7-9

47

48

1

2

2

2004 May 2-4

49

48

*

1

2

2004 Apr 16-18

46

51

*

2

1

2004 Apr 5-8

45

48

1

4

2

2004 Mar 26-28

47

51

--

1

1

2004 Mar 5-7

52

44

1

2

1

2004 Feb 16-17

55

43

*

1

1

2004 Feb 6-8

48

49

*

1

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

53

46

--

*

1

2004 Jan 9-11

43

55

*

1

1

Registered voters

2004 Aug 9-11

47

48

1

2

2

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

48

48

*

1

3

2004 Jul 19-21

49

45

*

3

3

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

51

44

*

2

3

2004 Jun 21-23

49

45

1

2

3

2004 Jun 3-6

49

44

*

3

4

2004 May 21-23

48

46

*

2

4

2004 May 7-9

50

44

*

3

3

2004 May 2-4

47

47

1

2

3

2004 Apr 16-18

46

50

*

2

2

2004 Apr 5-8

48

46

1

3

3

2004 Mar 26-28

46

49

*

2

3

2004 Mar 5-7

50

45

1

2

2

2004 Feb 16-17

51

46

*

2

1

2004 Feb 6-8

49

48

*

1

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

51

46

--

1

2

2004 Jan 9-11

40

57

--

2

1

2003 Nov 10-12

46

52

--

1

1

2003 Sep 19-21

48

47

1

2

2

(vol.) Volunteered response

^

Vice presidential candidates Edwards and Cheney added beginning with the July 8-11, 2004 survey.



Q.2/2A CONTINUED

 

Kerry/ Edwards

Bush/ Cheney

OTHER
(vol.)

NEITHER
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

National adults

2004 Aug 9-11

47

47

1

2

3

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

50

46

*

1

3

2004 Jul 19-21

48

46

*

3

3

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

51

43

*

3

3

2004 Jun 21-23

48

46

1

2

3

2004 Jun 3-6

48

44

*

4

4

2004 May 21-23

48

44

*

4

4

2004 May 7-9

51

43

*

3

3

2004 May 2-4

47

46

1

3

3

2004 Apr 16-18

46

49

1

2

2

2004 Apr 5-8

46

47

1

3

3

2004 Mar 26-28

46

48

*

3

3

2004 Mar 5-7

50

45

*

3

2

2004 Feb 16-17

51

44

*

3

2

2004 Feb 6-8

48

48

*

2

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

52

44

--

2

2

2004 Jan 9-11

40

57

--

2

1

2003 Nov 10-12

44

53

--

1

2

2003 Sep 19-21

47

48

1

2

2

(vol.) Volunteered response

^

Vice presidential candidates Edwards and Cheney added beginning with the July 8-11, 2004 survey.



3. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, (or) Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates]?

3A. As of today, do you lean more toward – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans (or) Nader and Camejo, the independents]?

 

Kerry/
Edwards

Bush/
Cheney

Nader/
Camejo

OTHER
(vol.)

NONE
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

%

Likely voters

2004 Aug 9-11

46

48

3

*

1

2

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

45

51

2

*

1

1

2004 Jul 19-21

47

46

4

*

1

2

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

50

45

2

*

1

2

2004 Jun 21-23

47

48

3

*

*

2

2004 Jun 3-6

49

43

5

1

*

2

2004 May 21-23

47

46

4

*

1

2

2004 May 7-9

45

47

5

--

2

1

2004 May 2-4

47

47

3

*

1

2

2004 Apr 16-18

44

50

4

*

*

2

2004 Apr 5-8

43

47

4

1

2

3

2004 Mar 26-28

45

49

4

--

1

1

2004 Mar 5-7

50

44

2

1

1

2

Registered voters

2004 Aug 9-11

45

46

5

*

1

3

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

47

48

2

*

1

2

2004 Jul 19-21

47

43

5

*

2

3

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

50

42

4

*

1

3

2004 Jun 21-23

46

45

6

1

*

2

2004 Jun 3-6

45

42

7

1

1

4

2004 May 21-23

46

44

6

*

1

3

2004 May 7-9

46

41

7

*

3

3

2004 May 2-4

44

45

6

1

1

3

2004 Apr 16-18

44

47

5

*

1

3

2004 Apr 5-8

46

45

5

*

2

2

2004 Mar 26-28

43

48

5

--

1

3

2004 Mar 5-7

47

45

5

*

1

2

National adults

2004 Aug 9-11

45

45

5

*

2

3

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

48

45

3

*

2

2

2004 Jul 19-21

47

43

5

*

2

3

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

49

41

5

*

2

3

2004 Jun 21-23

45

45

6

1

1

2

2004 Jun 3-6

44

42

8

1

2

3

2004 May 21-23

46

42

6

1

2

3

2004 May 7-9

46

41

8

*

3

2

2004 May 2-4

44

44

7

1

1

3

2004 Apr 16-18

43

46

7

*

1

3

2004 Apr 5-8

45

45

5

1

2

2

2004 Mar 26-28

44

46

7

--

1

2

2004 Mar 5-7

47

44

5

1

1

2

(vol.) Volunteered response

^

Vice presidential candidates Edwards, Cheney, and Camejo added beginning with the July 8-11, 2004 survey.



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

 


Approve

Dis-approve

No
opinion

%

%

%

2004

2004 Aug 9-11

51

46

3

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

48

49

3

2004 Jul 19-21

49

47

4

2004 Jul 8-11

47

49

4

2004 Jun 21-23

48

49

3

2004 Jun 3-6

49

49

2

2004 May 21-23

47

49

4

2004 May 7-9

46

51

3

2004 May 2-4

49

48

3

2004 Apr 16-18

52

45

3

2004 Apr 5-8

52

45

3

2004 Mar 26-28

53

44

3

2004 Mar 8-11

50

47

3

2004 Mar 5-7

49

48

3

2004 Feb 16-17

51

46

3

2004 Feb 9-12

51

46

3

2004 Feb 6-8

52

44

4

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

49

48

3

2004 Jan 12-15

53

44

3

2004 Jan 9-11

59

38

3

2004 Jan 2-5

60

35

5



13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

  1. The economy

 


Approve

Dis-approve

No
opinion

%

%

%

2004

2004 Aug 9-11

46

51

3

2004 Jun 21-23 ^

47

50

3

2004 Jun 3-6

41

58

1

2004 May 7-9 ^

41

56

3

2004 May 2-4

41

56

3

2004 Apr 16-18

46

52

2

2004 Mar 26-28

42

55

3

2004 Feb 9-12

45

52

3

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

43

54

3

2004 Jan 2-5

54

43

3

2003

2003 Dec 5-7

48

49

3

2003 Nov 3-5

47

50

3

2003 Oct 6-8

42

55

3

2003 Sep 8-10

45

53

2

2003 Aug 25-26

45

52

3

2003 Jul 25-27

46

51

3

2003 Jul 18-20

45

51

4

2003 Jul 7-9

48

50

2

2003 Jun 12-15

48

48

4

2003 May 5-7

53

44

3

2003 Apr 14-16

49

45

6

2003 Mar 29-30

49

47

4

2003 Mar 24-25

52

42

6

2003 Mar 14-15

44

52

4

^ Asked of half sample.



 


Approve

Dis-approve

No
opinion

%

%

%

2003

2003 Feb 3-6

44

52

4

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

47

48

5

2003 Jan 23-25

46

49

5

2003 Jan 10-12

48

47

5

2003 Jan 3-5

49

47

4

2002

2002 Dec 9-10

49

47

4

2002 Nov 8-10

55

39

6

2002 Oct 21-22

49

44

7

2002 Jul 26-28

52

43

5

2002 Jul 5-8

58

36

6

2002 Jun 28-30

63

33

4

2002 May 20-22

61

29

10

2002 Apr 5-7 ^

60

33

7

2002 Mar 22-24

65

29

6

2002 Mar 1-3

64

31

5

2002 Feb 4-6

66

30

4

2002 Jan 25-27

64

30

6

2001

2001 Nov 2-4 ^

71

24

5

2001 Oct 5-6

72

23

5

2001 Jul 10-11

54

36

10

2001 May 18-20

51

41

8

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

55

38

7

2001 Mar 9-11

55

32

13

2001 Feb 1-4

53

27

20

^ Asked of half sample.



Q.13 (BUSH ISSUES APPROVAL) CONTINUED

B. Foreign affairs

 


Approve

Dis-approve

No
opinion

%

%

%

2004

2004 Aug 9-11

44

51

5

2004 Jun 3-6

44

54

2

2004 May 2-4

42

53

5

2004 Feb 9-12

46

52

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

46

51

3

2004 Jan 2-5

58

39

3

2003

2003 Dec 5-7

53

43

4

2003 Nov 3-5

46

50

4

2003 Oct 6-8

49

49

2

2003 Sep 8-10

52

45

3

2003 Aug 25-26

55

42

3

2003 Jul 25-27

54

42

4

2003 Jul 18-20

54

41

5

2003 Jul 7-9

55

42

3

2003 Jun 12-15

58

39

3

2003 May 5-7

68

30

2

2003 Apr 14-16

65

31

4

2003 Mar 29-30

64

31

5

2003 Mar 24-25

65

30

5

2003 Mar 14-15

53

43

4

2003 Feb 3-6

49

46

5

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

57

39

4

^ Asked of half sample.



 


Approve

Dis-approve

No
opinion

%

%

%

2003

2003 Jan 23-25

50

45

5

2003 Jan 10-12

53

42

5

2003 Jan 3-5

60

35

5

2002

2002 Dec 9-10

59

35

6

2002 Nov 8-10

59

36

5

2002 Oct 21-22

58

35

7

2002 Jul 26-28

63

30

7

2002 Jul 5-8

71

25

4

2002 Jun 28-30

66

27

7

2002 May 20-22

70

23

7

2002 Apr 5-7 ^

70

24

6

2002 Mar 22-24

71

22

7

2002 Mar 1-3

78

17

5

2002 Feb 4-6

79

16

5

2002 Jan 25-27

83

14

3

2001

2001 Oct 5-6

81

14

5

2001 Jul 10-11

54

33

13

2001 May 18-20

55

35

10

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

56

31

13

2001 Mar 9-11

52

27

21

2001 Feb 1-4

46

21

33

^ Asked of half sample.



Q.13 (BUSH ISSUES APPROVAL) CONTINUED

C. The situation in Iraq

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2004 Aug 9-11

45

52

3

2004 Jun 21-23 ^

42

56

2

2004 Jun 3-6

41

57

2

2004 May 7-9 ^

41

58

1

2004 May 2-4

42

55

3

2004 Apr 16-18

48

49

3

2004 Mar 26-28

51

47

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

46

53

1

2004 Jan 2-5

61

36

3

2003 Dec 5-7

50

47

3

2003 Nov 3-5

45

54

1

2003 Oct 6-8

47

50

3

2003 Sep 8-10

51

47

2

2003 Aug 25-26

57

41

2

2003 Jul 25-27

60

38

2

2003 Jul 18-20

57

39

4

2003 Jul 7-9

58

39

3

2003 Jun 12-15

63

34

3

2003 Apr 14-16

76

21

3

2003 Mar 29-30

71

27

2

2003 Mar 24-25

71

26

3

2003 Mar 14-15

56

41

3

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

54

42

4

2003 Jan 3-5

55

40

5

2002 Dec 9-10

55

39

6

2002 Oct 21-22

52

40

8

^ Asked of half sample.



Q.13 (BUSH ISSUES APPROVAL) CONTINUED

D. Terrorism

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2004 Aug 9-11

57

40

3

2004 Jun 21-23 ^

54

44

2

2004 Jun 3-6

56

43

1

2004 May 7-9 ^

54

43

3

2004 May 2-4

52

45

3

2004 Apr 16-18

60

39

1

2004 Mar 26-28

58

39

3

2003 Dec 5-7

65

33

2

2003 Sep 8-10

64

34

2

2003 Aug 25-26

66

31

3

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

71

26

3

2002 May 20-22 ^

83

13

4

2002 Apr 5-7 ^

83

13

4

2002 Mar 20-22 †

86

12

2

2001 Nov 2-4 †

86

12

2

^

Asked of a half sample

WORDING: U.S. military action abroad to fight terrorism.

Alternate wording asked in Nov. 2-4 and March 20-22 poll produced similar results; data presented are the average of two wordings: "efforts to prevent future acts of terrorism in the U.S." and "U.S. military action abroad to fight terrorism."




Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/12694/Bush-Approval-51.aspx
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