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Was U.S. Involvement in Iraq a Mistake?

Most Americans do not think Bush, Kerry have clear plans for handling situation there

by Joseph Carroll

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The war in Iraq was the dominant topic at last week's presidential debate between President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry. A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows some movement on key measures about Iraq following that debate. Nearly half of all Americans now say it was a mistake to send troops into Iraq, up six points since late September, and closer to the more negative perceptions of the summer. The public is also divided as to whether the war with Iraq has made the United States safer from terrorism. The majority of Americans do not believe former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, a perception that is sharply divided by partisanship. When asked if Bush or Kerry would do a better job on Iraq, Americans continue to choose Bush, although this measure is now slightly less in Bush's favor than it was prior to the debate. Americans also say they do not think either candidate has a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq.

Nearly Half of Americans Say Sending Troops to Iraq Was a Mistake

The poll, conducted Oct. 1-3, finds that just over half of Americans, 51%, say it was not a mistake to send troops to Iraq. Slightly fewer than half of all adults nationwide (48%) say it was a mistake.

Attitudes on Iraq as measured by this question have varied sharply over the last several months.

In late June and early July, a majority of Americans (54% in two consecutive surveys) believed it was a mistake to send troops to Iraq. Earlier in the year, most Americans -- between 54% and 58% -- said it was not a mistake to send troops, while roughly 4 in 10 said it was a mistake.

In early September, most likely in response to the emphasis at the Republican convention on positive aspects of Iraq involvement, Americans became less likely to view the war as a mistake. At that time, only 38% said it was a mistake to send troops and 57% said it was not.

Now, in the last two polls in which this question has been asked, Americans have become more negative in their views about the war, and at the moment, are essentially divided right down the middle.

Over the past two polls, certain demographic subgroups have become more likely to say it was a mistake to send troops to Iraq. These groups include: veterans (from 35% in the late September poll to 50% in the early October poll); adults with postgraduate educations (from 54% to 64%); adults aged 65 and older (from 43% to 53%); residents of the Midwest (from 42% to 52%) and West (from 36% to 46%); adults earning at least $75,000 per year (from 40% to 49%); Democrats (from 71% to 78%); those with a moderate political ideology (from 46% to 53%); women (from 42% to 49%); and those with high school diplomas or less (from 39% to 46%).

Public Divided on Whether Country Is Safer From Terrorism

The current poll shows that 47% of Americans say the Iraq war has made the United States safer from terrorism, while 45% say it is less safe. Over the past year, Gallup has found some fluctuation on this measure. In October and November 2003, Americans were also divided in their views, but in December, right after Hussein's capture, 56% said the United States had been made safer from terrorism as a result of the Iraq war, while 33% said less safe.

Positive sentiment decreased in March of this year, with 50% saying the country was safer and 37% saying less safe. By mid-June, a majority of respondents, 55%, chose the negative response -- that the country was less safe -- while fewer than 4 in 10 said the Iraq war had made the country safer.

Now, as is true for other opinions concerning Iraq, sentiment on this question is almost evenly divided.

Gallup asked Americans two questions about Hussein's role in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C., in the latest poll.

One-half of the survey respondents were asked more generally if they believed Hussein was personally involved in the attacks, while the other half were asked if they believed Hussein was personally involved in "the planning" of those attacks.

The results show that 53% of Americans say Hussein was not personally involved in 9/11, while 42% believe he was involved. The trend on this question shows little change since June, but after Hussein's capture last December, a majority of Americans (53%) said Hussein was involved in the attacks, and 42% said he was not. A larger percentage of Americans, 62%, say Hussein was not involved in the planning of the 9/11 attacks, while one in three say he was involved in the planning.

The public also is split as to whether the war in Iraq should be considered part of the overall war on terrorism, with 50% saying it is part of the war on terrorism and 47% saying it is a separate military action. Gallup has consistently found similar results for this question throughout the year.

 

Bush Leads Kerry on Iraq; Neither Candidate Seen as Having Clear Plan

Bush (51%) maintains an advantage over Kerry (44%) when Americans are asked which candidate can better handle the situation in Iraq, but Bush's lead over Kerry on Iraq diminished slightly following last week's first presidential debate on foreign policy. Prior to that debate, in late September, Bush led Kerry by a 55% to 41% margin. Views on which candidate would better handle Iraq were more divided earlier this year, but after the Republican convention, Bush's standing on the Iraq issue improved substantially.

Although a slight majority of Americans think Bush would do a better job than Kerry in handling Iraq, the public is not convinced that either candidate has a clear plan for handling the situation in that country.

Americans are evenly divided on whether Bush has a clear plan for Iraq, with 49% saying he does, and 49% saying he does not. These results show a slight dip for Bush since the end of September, when 52% said the president had a clear plan and 44% said he did not.

Meanwhile, 41% of Americans say Kerry has a clear plan, but 53% disagree. Nevertheless, that represents a substantial improvement for the Democratic candidate -- in late September, only 30% of Americans said Kerry had a clear plan for Iraq, while 63% said he did not.

The poll also asked Americans for their assessment of how the presidential election outcome might affect U.S. victory prospects in Iraq. Thirty percent say the United States will win the war only if Bush is re-elected, and 11% say the United States will win only if Kerry is elected. An additional 28% say the United States will win regardless of which candidate wins the presidency this November, and 25% say the United States will not win the war if either Bush or Kerry is elected.

Partisanship Shapes Views on Iraq

An examination of the differences in perceptions of the war by the partisanship of respondents underscores the extraordinary degree to which Iraq has become an extremely political issue. Republicans and Democrats differ significantly in their views about the situation in Iraq:

  • More than three in four Democrats (78%) say it was a mistake to send troops to Iraq, compared with only 12% of Republicans.

  • Eight in 10 Republicans (81%) say the war in Iraq has made the United States safer from terrorism, compared with 19% of Democrats.

  • Republicans (62%) are much more likely than Democrats (33%) to believe Hussein was personally involved in the 9/11 attacks. When asked if Hussein was personally involved in planning the attacks, the pattern is similar, with 50% of Republicans and 26% of Democrats saying he was involved.

  • Republicans also are more inclined than Democrats to say the war in Iraq is part of the overall war on terrorism, by a margin of 82% to 30%.

  • Eighty-three percent of Democrats say Kerry would do a better job in Iraq, while 91% of Republicans say Bush would do a better job.

  • Eighty-seven percent of Republicans say Bush has a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq, while only 19% of Democrats say so. This compares with 9% of Republicans and 70% of Democrats who say Kerry has a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,016 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 1-3, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Next, we'd like to ask you some questions about Iraq. First,

19. In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?

 


Yes


No

No opinion

 

%

%

%

Iraq

 

 

 

2004 Oct 1-3

48

51

1

2004 Sep 24-26

42

55

3

2004 Sep 3-5 ^

38

57

5

2004 Aug 23-25 ^

48

50

2

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

47

51

2

2004 Jul 19-21

50

47

3

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

54

45

1

2004 Jun 21-23 ^

54

44

2

2004 Jun 3-6 ^

41

58

1

2004 May 7-9 ^

44

54

2

2004 Apr 16-18 ^

42

57

1

2004 Jan 12-15 ^

42

56

2

2003 Nov 3-5 ^

39

60

1

2003 Oct 6-8 ^

40

59

1

2003 Jul 7-9 ^

27

72

1

2003 Mar 24-25 ^

23

75

2

Afghanistan

 

 

 

2004 Jul 19-21

25

72

3

2002 Jan 7-9

6

93

1

2001 Nov 8-11

9

89

2

Yugoslavia

 

 

 

1999 Jun 4-5

43

53

4

1999 Apr 21

42

51

7

Persian Gulf War

 

 

 

1991 Jul 18-21

15

82

3

1991 Feb 28-Mar 3

10

87

3

1991 Feb 7-10

21

76

3

1991 Jan 30-Feb 2

18

80

2

1991 Jan 23-26

18

77

5

1991 Jan 17-20

16

80

4

1991 Jan 11-13

29

65

6

1991 Jan 3-6

30

61

9

1990 Dec 6-9

28

66

6

1990 Nov 29-Dec 2

29

66

5

1990 Nov 15-18

27

65

8

1990 Nov 8-11

27

68

5

1990 Nov 2-4

25

67

8

1990 Oct 25-28

24

71

5

1990 Oct 18-21

26

67

7

1990 Oct 11-14

27

68

5

1990 Oct 3-4

21

71

8

1990 Sep 27-30

20

73

7

1990 Sep 14-16

18

73

10

1990 Sep 10-11

19

76

5

1990 Aug 30-Sep 2

16

76

8

1990 Aug 23-26

18

76

6

1990 Aug 16-19

17

75

8

 

 

 

 

 


Yes


No

No opinion

 

%

%

%

Vietnam War

 

 

 

2000 Nov 13-15

69

24

7

1995 Apr 21-24

71

23

6

1990 Mar 15-18

74

22

4

1973 Jan 12-15

60

29

11

1971 May 14-17

61

28

11

1971 Jan 8-11

60

31

9

1970 May 21-26

56

36

8

1970 Apr 2-7

51

34

15

1970 Jan 15-20

57

32

11

1969 Sep 17-22

58

32

10

1969 Jan 23-28

52

39

9

1968 Sep 26-Oct 1

54

37

9

1968 Aug 7-12

53

35

12

1968 Apr 4-9

48

40

12

1968 Feb 22-27

49

42

9

1968 Feb 1-6

46

42

12

1967 Dec 7-12

45

46

9

1967 Oct 6-11

47

44

9

1967 Jul 13-18

41

48

11

1967 Apr 19-24

37

50

13

1967 Jan 26-31

32

52

16

1966 Nov 10-15

31

52

17

1966 Sep 8-13

35

48

17

1966 May 5-10

36

49

15

1966 Mar 3-8

26

59

15

1965 Aug 27-Sep 1

24

60

16

Korean War

 

 

 

2000 Jun 6-7

34

47

19

1953 Jan 11-16

36

50

14

1952 Oct 17-22

43

37

19

1952 Oct 9-14

43

37

20

1952 Feb 28-Mar 5

51

35

14

1951 Aug 3-8

42

48

11

1951 Jun 16-21

43

40

17

1951 Apr 16-21

37

45

18

1951 Mar 26-31

45

43

12

1951 Feb 4-9

49

41

9

1951 Jan 1-5

49

38

13

1950 Aug 20-25

20

65

15

 

 

 

 

^ Asked of a half sample

            Q.19 (MISTAKE SENDING TROOPS TO IRAQ) CONTINUED

AFGHANISTAN WORDING: Do you think the United States made a mistake in sending military forces to Afghanistan, or not?

YUGOSLAVIA WORDING: In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Yugoslavia, do you think the United States made a mistake sending military forces to fight in Yugoslavia?

PERSIAN GULF WAR WORDING (Feb 28-Mar 3, 1991 to Jul 18-21, 1991): In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to the Persian Gulf region, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to the Persian Gulf region, or not?

PERSIAN GULF WAR WORDING (Aug 16-19, 1990 to Feb 7-10, 1991): In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Saudi Arabia, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Saudi Arabia, or not?

VIETNAM WAR WORDING (1990-2000): Looking back, do you think the United States made a mistake sending troops to fight in Vietnam?

VIETNAM WAR WORDING (1965-1973): In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Vietnam, do you think the U.S. made a mistake sending troops to fight in Vietnam?

KOREAN WAR WORDING (2000): Based on what you have heard or read, do you think the United States made a mistake in going into the war in Korea, or not?

KOREAN WAR WORDING (Feb 1951-Jan 1953): Do you think the United States made a mistake in going into the war in Korea, or not?

KOREAN WAR WORDING (Aug 1950-Jan 1951): In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Korea, do you think the United States made a mistake in deciding to defend Korea, or not?

 

Q.20-21 ROTATED

20. Do you think George W. Bush does -- or does not -- have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq?

 

Yes, does

No, does not

No opinion

 

%

%

%

2004 Oct 1-3

49

49

2

 

 

 

 

2004 Sep 24-26

52

44

4

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

42

56

2

2004 Jul 19-21

45

54

1

2003 Dec 15-16 ^

51

45

4

2003 Sep 8-10 ^

40

59

1

2003 Aug 25-26 ^

44

54

2

 

 

 

 

^

WORDING: Do you think the Bush administration does -- or does not -- have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq?

21. Do you think John Kerry does -- or does not -- have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq?

 

Yes, does

No, does not

No opinion

 

%

%

%

2004 Oct 1-3

41

53

6

 

 

 

 

2004 Sep 24-26

30

63

7

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

38

52

10

2004 Jul 19-21

33

56

11

22. Which best describes your view of the war in Iraq -- [ROTATED: the U.S. will only win the war if John Kerry is elected president, (or) the U.S. will only win the war in George W. Bush is re-elected president], the U.S. will win the war if either Kerry or Bush is elected, the U.S. will NOT win the war if either Kerry or Bush is elected?

 

Only win if Kerry is elected

Only win if Bush is
re-elected

Win if either is elected

Will not win if either is elected


No
opinion

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Oct 1-3

11%

30

28

25

6

23. Do you think the war with Iraq has made the U.S. safer -- or less safe -- from terrorism?

 

Safer

Less safe

NO CHANGE
(vol.)

No opinion

 

%

%

%

%

2004 Oct 1-3

47

45

5

3

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Jun 21-23

37

55

6

2

2004 Mar 5-7

50

37

10

3

2003 Dec 15-16 ^

56

33

9

2

2003 Nov 14-16

48

43

7

2

2003 Oct 24-26

45

43

10

2

2003 Apr 22-23

58

33

8

1

2003 Apr 10 †

51

37

9

3

 

^ Based on a half sample

† Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

(vol.) Volunteered response

Q.24-25 SPLIT SAMPLED

24. Do you think Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the September 11th terrorist attacks, or not?

BASED ON 491 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

 

Yes, was involved

No, was not

No opinion

 

%

%

%

2004 Oct 1-3 ^

42

53

5

 

 

 

 

2004 Jun 21-23 ^

44

51

5

2003 Dec 15-16 ^

53

42

5

2003 Sep 19-21

43

50

7

2003 Mar 14-15 ^

51

41

8

2002 Aug 19-21 ^

53

34

13

 

^

Asked of a half sample

25. Do you think Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the planning of the September 11th terrorist attacks, or not?

BASED ON 525 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

 

 

Yes, was involved

No, was not

No opinion

 

 

 

 

2004 Oct 1-3

32%

62

6

26. Do you consider the war in Iraq to be part of the war on terrorism which began on September 11, 2001, or do you consider it to be an entirely separate military action?

 

Part of war
on terrorism

Separate military action

No
opinion

 

%

%

%

2004 Oct 1-3

50

47

3

 

 

 

 

2004 Jul 19-21 ^

51

47

2

2004 Mar 26-28

50

48

2

2003 Aug 25-26

57

41

2

 

 

 

 

^

Asked of a half sample

Trends for Comparison: If the United States goes to war with Iraq, would you consider that to be part of the war on terrorism which began on September 11th, or would you consider it to be an entirely separate military action?

 

Part of war
on terrorism

Separate military action

No
opinion

2003 Jan 23-25

50%

48

2

2002 Sep 20-22

55%

42

3


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/13519/US-Involvement-Iraq-Mistake.aspx
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