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Americans Pessimistic About Future in Iraq

Americans Pessimistic About Future in Iraq

Disapproval of Bush's handling of war in Iraq at 56%

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey shows that Americans continue to be pessimistic about the future in Iraq. Most people are skeptical that peace will be established there within a year, with a clear majority saying that things are going badly in Iraq and expressing disapproval of the way President George W. Bush is handling the situation there. Americans are about evenly divided both as to whether the coming year will see the establishment of a democratic form of government, and whether the decision to go to war in the first place was a mistake or not.

The poll, conducted Jan. 7-9, finds 56% of Americans say they disapprove of the way Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, up from 51% in November 2004. Just 42% approve, down from 47% in November 2004.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation in Iraq?

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

42

56

2

2004 Nov 7-10

47

51

2

2004 Oct 14-16

46

52

2

2004 Sep 24-26

48

49

3

2004 Aug 9-11

45

52

3

2004 Jun 21-23 ^

42

56

2

2004 Jun 3-6

41

57

2

2004 May 7-9 ^

41

58

1

2004 May 2-4

42

55

3

2004 Apr 16-18

48

49

3

2004 Mar 26-28

51

47

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

46

53

1

2004 Jan 2-5

61

36

3

2003 Dec 5-7

50

47

3

2003 Nov 3-5

45

54

1

2003 Oct 6-8

47

50

3

2003 Sep 8-10

51

47

2

2003 Aug 25-26

57

41

2

2003 Jul 25-27

60

38

2

2003 Jul 18-20

57

39

4

2003 Jul 7-9

58

39

3

2003 Jun 12-15

63

34

3

2003 Apr 14-16

76

21

3

2003 Mar 29-30

71

27

2

2003 Mar 24-25

71

26

3

2003 Mar 14-15

56

41

3

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

54

42

4

2003 Jan 3-5

55

40

5

2002 Dec 9-10

55

39

6

2002 Oct 21-22

52

40

8

^ Asked of a half sample.

The current level of disapproval is comparable to the public's views last May and June. During the presidential campaign, from August through November last year, disapproval dropped somewhat, averaging just 51%. But with intensified fighting in recent weeks, disapproval has increased.

Disapproval is related to the public's negative assessment of how things are going in Iraq. A clear majority of Americans (59%) believe the war there is going badly, while only 40% believe it is going well. These views are little changed from last month, but they are somewhat more pessimistic than the public's views last August and September.

In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq -- [ROTATED: very well, moderately well, moderately badly, (or) very badly]?

 

Very well

Moderately
well

Moderately
badly

Very badly

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

5

35

29

30

1

2004 Dec 5-8

6

34

26

33

1

2004 Sep 24-26

4

42

27

25

2

2004 Aug 9-11 †

5

40

28

25

2

2004 Jul 8-11

5

35

30

29

1

2004 Jun 3-6

6

34

35

25

*

2004 May 21-23

7

35

26

31

1

2004 May 2-4

4

33

32

30

1

2004 Apr 5-8

5

30

31

33

1

2004 Mar 5-7

9

46

28

15

2

2003 Nov 3-5 ^

4

34

34

27

1

2003 Oct 6-8 ^†

6

36

34

24

*

2003 Sep 8-10 ^

6

41

31

21

1

2003 Aug 25-26 ^

6

44

30

19

1

2003 Jul 25-27 ^

10

46

28

15

1

2003 Jul 18-20 ^

6

48

30

15

1

2003 Jun 27-29 ^

5

51

29

13

2

2003 May 30-Jun 1 ^

11

59

22

7

1

2003 May 5-7 ^†

30

56

10

3

1

2003 Apr 22-23 ^†

21

64

12

2

1

^ WORDING: How would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq now that the major fighting has ended -- [ROTATED: very well, moderately well, moderately badly, (or) very badly]?

† Asked of a half sample.

* Less than 0.5%.

The poll also finds that 50% of Americans believe the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, while 48% disagree. These views are roughly comparable to a Gallup survey Jan. 3-5 that found 52% of Americans saying it was not worth going to war in Iraq, and 46% saying it was.

In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?

 


Yes


No

No opinion

%

%

%

Iraq

2005 Jan 7-9

50

48

2

2004 Nov 19-21

47

51

2

2004 Oct 29-31 ^

44

52

4

2004 Oct 22-24

47

51

2

2004 Oct 14-16

47

52

1

2004 Oct 9-10 ^

46

53

1

2004 Oct 1-3

48

51

1

2004 Sep 24-26

42

55

3

2004 Sep 3-5 ^

38

57

5

2004 Aug 23-25 ^

48

50

2

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

47

51

2

2004 Jul 19-21

50

47

3

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

54

45

1

2004 Jun 21-23 ^

54

44

2

2004 Jun 3-6 ^

41

58

1

2004 May 7-9 ^

44

54

2

2004 Apr 16-18 ^

42

57

1

2004 Jan 12-15 ^

42

56

2

2003 Nov 3-5 ^

39

60

1

2003 Oct 6-8 ^

40

59

1

2003 Jul 7-9 ^

27

72

1

2003 Mar 24-25 ^

23

75

2

^ Asked of a half sample.

When looking to the immediate future in Iraq, most Americans believe it is unlikely that peace and internal security will be established within a year, including 48% of Americans who say it is "very unlikely," and 23% saying "somewhat unlikely." There has been very little change in these views over the last seven months.

Likelihood that peace and internal security will be established

 

Very
likely

Somewhat
likely

Somewhat
unlikely

Very
unlikely

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

6

22

23

48

1

2004 May 21-23 ^

7

22

25

44

2

^ Asked of a half sample.

Americans are somewhat more divided, however, over whether a democratic form of government will be established in Iraq. Despite the upcoming elections scheduled there for the end of this month, 52% of Americans say it is unlikely that a democratic government will be established in Iraq within a year, while 47% say it is likely. These perceptions too have changed little since Gallup's May 2004 survey.

Likelihood that a democratic form of government will be established

 

Very
likely

Somewhat
likely

Somewhat
unlikely

Very
unlikely

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

15

32

23

29

1

2004 May 21-23 ^

12

30

23

32

3

^ Asked of a half sample.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,008 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 7-9, 2005. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the 480 national adults in the Form A half-sample and 528 national adults in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

21. In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?

 


Yes


No

No opinion

%

%

%

Iraq

2005 Jan 7-9

50

48

2

2004 Nov 19-21

47

51

2

2004 Oct 29-31 ^

44

52

4

2004 Oct 22-24

47

51

2

2004 Oct 14-16

47

52

1

2004 Oct 9-10 ^

46

53

1

2004 Oct 1-3

48

51

1

2004 Sep 24-26

42

55

3

2004 Sep 3-5 ^

38

57

5

2004 Aug 23-25 ^

48

50

2

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

47

51

2

2004 Jul 19-21

50

47

3

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

54

45

1

2004 Jun 21-23 ^

54

44

2

2004 Jun 3-6 ^

41

58

1

2004 May 7-9 ^

44

54

2

2004 Apr 16-18 ^

42

57

1

2004 Jan 12-15 ^

42

56

2

2003 Nov 3-5 ^

39

60

1

2003 Oct 6-8 ^

40

59

1

2003 Jul 7-9 ^

27

72

1

2003 Mar 24-25 ^

23

75

2

Afghanistan

2004 Jul 19-21

25

72

3

2002 Jan 7-9

6

93

1

2001 Nov 8-11

9

89

2

Yugoslavia

1999 Jun 4-5

43

53

4

1999 Apr 21

42

51

7

Persian Gulf War

1991 Jul 18-21

15

82

3

1991 Feb 28-Mar 3

10

87

3

1991 Feb 7-10

21

76

3

1991 Jan 30-Feb 2

18

80

2

1991 Jan 23-26

18

77

5

1991 Jan 17-20

16

80

4

1991 Jan 11-13

29

65

6

1991 Jan 3-6

30

61

9

1990 Dec 6-9

28

66

6

1990 Nov 29-Dec 2

29

66

5

1990 Nov 15-18

27

65

8

1990 Nov 8-11

27

68

5

1990 Nov 2-4

25

67

6

1990 Aug 30-Sep 2

16

76

8

1990 Aug 23-26

18

76

8

1990 Aug 16-19

17

75

6

1990 Aug 30-Sep 2

16

76

8

1990 Aug 23-26

18

76

5

1990 Aug 16-19

17

75

7

1990 Oct 25-28

24

71

5

1990 Oct 18-21

26

67

8

1990 Oct 11-14

27

68

7

1990 Oct 3-4

21

71

10

1990 Sep 27-30

20

73

5

1990 Sep 14-16

18

73

6

1990 Sep 10-11

19

76

8

Vietnam War

2000 Nov 13-15

69

24

7

1995 Apr 21-24

71

23

6

1990 Mar 15-18

74

22

4

1973 Jan 12-15

60

29

11

1971 May 14-17

61

28

11

1971 Jan 8-11

60

31

9

1970 May 21-26

56

36

8

1970 Apr 2-7

51

34

15

1970 Jan 15-20

57

32

11

1969 Sep 17-22

58

32

10

1969 Jan 23-28

52

39

9

1968 Sep 26-Oct 1

54

37

9

1968 Aug 7-12

53

35

12

1968 Apr 4-9

48

40

12

1968 Feb 22-27

49

42

9

1968 Feb 1-6

46

42

12

1967 Dec 7-12

45

46

9

1967 Oct 6-11

47

44

9

1967 Jul 13-18

41

48

11

1967 Apr 19-24

37

50

13

1967 Jan 26-31

32

52

16

1966 Nov 10-15

31

52

17

1966 Sep 8-13

35

48

17

1966 May 5-10

36

49

15

1966 Mar 3-8

26

59

15

1965 Aug 27-Sep 1

24

60

16

Korean War

2000 Jun 6-7

34

47

19

1953 Jan 11-16

36

50

14

1952 Oct 17-22

43

37

19

1952 Oct 9-14

43

37

20

1952 Feb 28-Mar 5

51

35

14

1951 Aug 3-8

42

48

11

1951 Jun 16-21

43

40

17

1951 Apr 16-21

37

45

18

1951 Mar 26-31

45

43

12

1951 Feb 4-9

49

41

9

1951 Jan 1-5

49

38

13

1950 Aug 20-25

20

65

15

 

AFGHANISTAN WORDING: Do you think the United States made a mistake in sending military forces to Afghanistan, or not?

YUGOSLAVIA WORDING: In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Yugoslavia, do you think the United States made a mistake sending military forces to fight in Yugoslavia?

PERSIAN GULF WAR WORDING (Feb. 28-Mar 3, 1991-Jul. 18-21, 1991): In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to the Persian Gulf region, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to the Persian Gulf region, or not?

PERSIAN GULF WAR WORDING (Aug. 16-19, 1990-Feb. 7-10, 1990): In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Saudi Arabia, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Saudi Arabia, or not?

VIETNAM WAR WORDING (1990-2000): Looking back, do you think the United States made a mistake sending troops to fight in Vietnam?

VIETNAM WAR WORDING (1965-1973): In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Vietnam, do you think the U.S. made a mistake sending troops to fight in Vietnam?

KOREAN WAR WORDING (2000): Based on what you have heard or read, do you think the United States made a mistake in going into the war in Korea, or not?

KOREAN WAR WORDING (Feb. 1951-Jan. 1953): Do you think the United States made a mistake in going into the war in Korea, or not?

KOREAN WAR WORDING (Aug. 1950-Jan. 1951): In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Korea, do you think the United States made a mistake in deciding to defend Korea, or not?


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/14566/Americans-Pessimistic-About-Future-Iraq.aspx
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