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Americans Remain Divided Over Iraq War

Slightly less than half say it was a mistake to send U.S. troops

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The war in Iraq continues to dominate domestic and international news coverage, and remains at the forefront of public concern in the United States. Gallup's February update on Americans' perceptions of the most important problem facing the country found that 24% of Americans mentioned the situation in Iraq -- the largest specific problem response given in the survey.

There are two major questions that can be asked about public opinion on Iraq. First, what is the level of support for the decision to invade Iraq and depose Saddam Hussein? Second, what do Americans think about the situation in Iraq looking ahead?

Mistake to Get Involved in War?

The most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Feb. 25-27, shows that 47% of Americans think that it was a mistake for the United States to send troops to Iraq, while 51% say that it was not.  

Gallup first asked this "mistake" question in August 1950 -- shortly after America became immersed in the Korean War. Gallup asked Americans if they believed the United States "made a mistake in deciding to defend Korea, or not?" Gallup tracked responses to that question through January 1953, and then picked up the sequence in regards to the Vietnam War beginning in August 1965. More recently, Gallup asked the mistake question 26 separate times in relation to U.S. military involvement in the first Persian Gulf War in 1990 and 1991, and again asked the question about U.S. military involvement in Yugoslavia in 1999 and in Afghanistan following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Gallup began using the mistake question in regards to U.S. military involvement in Iraq in March 2003, and Gallup has tracked responses to that question 24 times in the two years since.

The pattern of responses to the mistake question has not been consistent or linear in direction. Only three times (mid-summer 2004 and twice in January 2005) has a majority of Americans agreed that sending U.S. troops to Iraq was a mistake. But most recent surveys show that opinion on the war remains quite divided, with the percent of Americans saying military action was a mistake hovering just under 50% in several recent surveys. It is perhaps most reasonable to conclude that the Iraq war still divides the country, with no strong consensus having developed that sending troops to Iraq either was or was not a mistake.

The public's perception of the situation in Iraq started out quite positively, reflecting the initial news coverage of the successful completion of the war effort's primary objective: the deposition of Hussein. Only a quarter of Americans in late March 2003 -- just a few weeks after the war began -- thought that the effort was a mistake. Similar perceptions persisted through the summer of 2003 (for example, only 27% of Americans said sending troops to Iraq was a mistake in July 2003). By the fall of 2003, however, the mistake percentage was up to 40%, and it crept above 50% by June and July 2004. This increase was fueled in part by the criticism about the war from Democrats during the presidential race, and in part by developments in Iraq itself, including the publicity surrounding the Abu Ghraib prison scandal.

These more negative assessments were short-lived, however. In late August and early September, the Republican National Convention provided a more positive interpretation of the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq, and in the first Gallup poll that asked about Iraq following that convention, the mistake percentage decreased to 38%.

Since that time there has been some fluctuation in the public's views of the war, with an uptick (to 52%) in the mistake percentage at the beginning of this year, a drop (to 45%) in early February (following the Iraqi elections at the end of January), and now a slight rise (to 47%) in Gallup's most recent survey.

The war in Iraq has been highly associated with George W. Bush and his personal convictions that the war be fought. It is therefore no surprise to find that vast differences continue in the way Americans look at the war based on their political orientations. 

Very few Republicans say that sending U.S. troops to Iraq was a mistake, while relatively few Democrats say that it was not a mistake.

One of the reasons why more Americans do not agree that sending troops to Iraq was the right thing to do is almost certainly because they don't think that U.S. efforts in Iraq have been successful.  

Only 43% of Americans say that the United States and its allies are winning the war in Iraq. And although very few say that the insurgents in Iraq are winning, about half say that neither side is winning the war.

Looking Ahead

What is the future of U.S. military involvement in Iraq? Most Americans are quite pessimistic when asked to estimate how long they think it will be necessary to keep a significant number of U.S. troops in Iraq.

Just your best guess, how much longer do you think the U.S. will have a significant number of troops in Iraq -- less than a year, one to two years, three to five years, six to 10 years, or longer than 10 years?

Less than a year

One to two years

Three to five years

Six to 10 years

Longer than that

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

%

2005 Feb 25-27

4

29

42

13

9

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Jun 21-23

8

28

40

14

9

1

Only one-third of Americans believe that it will be necessary to keep a significant number of U.S. troops in Iraq for only another year or two (or less). A majority of Americans say that troops will be in Iraq for three years or more, including one out of five Americans who say that troops will be in Iraq for six years or longer.

Despite the relatively successful Iraqi elections in late January, these sentiments have not changed significantly from when Gallup last asked this question in June 2004.

Americans who believe that the war in Iraq was a mistake are more likely than those who believe it wasn't a mistake to perceive that it will be necessary to keep troops in Iraq for a long time. But even a majority of those who say that the war was not a mistake believe that a significant number of troops will be in Iraq for three years or more.

Bush's Handling of the Situation in Iraq

Not surprisingly, given the public's mixed sentiments on Iraq, public opinion of President Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq also varies. 

Forty-five percent of Americans currently approve of the president's handling of Iraq, while a slight majority, 53%, disapprove. This is not the low point for Bush on this measure, but it is at the lower end of the range of his Iraq approval ratings over the last two years.

Bush received his lowest Iraq approval rating, 41%, in June 2004, roughly coinciding with an increase in the percentage of Americans who thought that sending troops to Iraq was a mistake. Bush's highest marks on Iraq came in the months after the war began in the spring of 2003, reaching a 76% approval rating in April of that year. Bush also scored relatively well on his handling of the situation in Iraq in early January of last year -- shortly after the capture of Hussein.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,008 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 25-27, 2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/15100/Americans-Remain-Divided-Over-Iraq-War.aspx
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