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Economic Indicators Continue Downward Slide

Economic Indicators Continue Downward Slide

Rising gas/oil prices appear major factor in recent decline

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup survey finds Americans to be the most pessimistic they have been in two years about where the economy is headed. Today, 61% say the economy is getting worse, while just 31% say better -- a net negative 30 percentage points. That is the worst rating since early March 2003 -- just prior to the beginning of the war in Iraq -- when Americans gave the economy a net negative rating of 44 points, with 67% saying the economy was getting worse and only 23% saying better.

On another economic measure, Americans are not quite so pessimistic, with 31% rating the current economy as excellent or good and 24% as poor -- a net positive of seven percentage points, a point less than last month's rating. Earlier this month, public sentiment appeared to improve slightly, as the net positive moved up to 14 points in the April 4-7 survey, only to fall back in the latest survey.

The current rating is the least optimistic since May of last year, when 29% of Americans said the economy was either excellent or good, and 27% said poor.

The lower ratings these past two months appear to be fueled principally by public concerns about higher gas prices. Again this month, the public identifies the top two economic problems facing the country as oil/gas prices and unemployment/jobs. The latter has been at the top of the list for the past several months, but the problem of higher fuel and oil prices jumped to the top last month and remains there now.

What is the most important economic problem facing the country today? [OPEN-ENDED]

 

 

Apr
18-21,
2005

Mar
21-23,
2005

Feb
21-24,
2005

Jan
17-19,
2005

 

%

%

%

%

Fuel/oil prices

19

17

5

3

Unemployment/Jobs/Wages

18

17

22

22

War in Iraq

8

11

9

14

Social Security

7

10

10

12

Healthcare/Health insurance costs

7

7

10

11

Lack of money

6

3

4

1

Outsourcing of jobs

5

7

6

5

Federal budget deficit

5

7

9

9

Inflation/Rising prices

4

3

2

3

Education reform

2

2

2

3

Illegal immigrants

2

2

1

1

Taxes

2

2

2

3

Credit cards/Overspending

1

2

1

2

Poverty/Hunger/Homelessness

1

1

2

2

Trade deficit

1

1

2

2

Retirement

1

1

1

*

Economy (non-specific)

1

1

1

1

Poorly run government/Politics

1

1

1

1

Gap between rich and poor

1

1

1

1

George W. Bush/His policies

1

1

1

3

Foreign aid/Focus on other countries

1

1

1

2

Welfare

1

1

1

2

Senior care/Medicare

1

1

1

1

Stock market

*

*

*

*

Interest rates

*

*

1

*

International relations

*

*

*

1

College tuition expenses

*

--

--

1

         

Other

4

4

5

8

None

1

1

1

1

No opinion

8

9

10

8

* Less than 0.5%

Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.

The war in Iraq, Social Security, and healthcare costs round out the top five most frequently mentioned national problems for the economy. When asked to name the most important economic problems facing their families (rather than the country as a whole), the public identifies lack of money/low wages, healthcare costs, and energy costs among the top three. Energy costs emerged among the top three items last month, paralleling responses about the most important problem facing the national economy.

What is the most important financial problem facing your family today? [OPEN-ENDED]

 

 

Apr
18-21,
2005

Mar
21-23,
2005

Feb
21-24,
2005

Jan
17-19,
2005

 

%

%

%

%

Lack of money/Low wages

15

10

13

12

Healthcare costs

14

14

14

15

Energy costs

11

10

3

3

Retirement savings

8

7

7

7

Too much debt/Not enough money to pay debts

8

8

7

14

Unemployment/Loss of job

7

7

8

8

College expenses

7

6

7

8

High cost of living/inflation

5

5

4

8

Cost of owning/renting a home

4

6

5

*

Taxes

3

4

4

4

Social Security

1

2

4

3

Interest rates

1

1

1

1

         

Other

5

2

4

7

None

15

18

21

18

No opinion

5

6

4

4

* Less than 0.5%

Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.

Partisan Economy

The public rates the economy as though it were primarily a politically partisan activity. Both on the current rating of economic conditions and the economic outlook, Republicans and Democrats appear to see very different worlds.

Among Republicans, the ratio of excellent/good to poor ratings of current economic conditions is 59% to 7% -- a 52-point net positive margin. Among independents, the margin is a net -4 points, with 26% saying poor and only 22% saying excellent/good. Among Democrats, the margin is a net -25 points, 38% poor to 13% excellent/good.

When rating the economic outlook, Republicans are mostly positive, with 56% saying the economy is getting better and 35% saying worse. Both independents and Democrats, on the other hand, express mostly pessimistic views -- 69% getting worse to 22% getting better among independents, and 81% worse to 13% better among Democrats.

Survey Methods

Results in the current survey are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 18-21, 2005. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

3. How would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

 

 

Excel-
lent


Good

Only
fair


Poor

No
opinion

2005

%

%

%

%

%

2005 Apr 18-21

2

29

44

24

1

           

2005 Apr 4-7

3

29

49

18

1

2005 Mar 21-23

2

30

43

24

1

2005 Mar 7-10

3

32

48

16

1

2005 Feb 21-24

5

33

42

20

*

2005 Feb 7-10

3

37

44

16

*

2005 Jan 3-5

3

38

42

17

*

2004

         

2004 Dec 5-8

2

35

43

19

1

2004 Nov 7-10

3

33

44

20

*

2004 Oct 11-14

2

32

44

22

*

2004 Oct 9-10

4

31

40

24

1

2004 Sep 13-15

3

36

39

22

*

2004 Aug 9-11

3

36

40

21

*

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

6

32

39

23

*

2004 Jul 8-11

5

32

41

21

1

2004 Jun 3-6

3

32

44

21

*

2004 May 2-4

2

27

43

27

1

2004 Apr 5-8

3

31

44

22

*

2004 Mar 8-11

2

30

44

24

*

2004 Feb 9-12

2

31

46

21

--

2004 Jan 12-15

3

34

42

21

--

2004 Jan 2-5

3

40

41

16

*

2003

         

2003 Dec 11-14

3

34

44

19

*

2003 Nov 3-5

2

28

49

21

*

2003 Oct 24-26

2

24

44

30

*

2003 Oct 6-8

2

20

50

27

1

2003 Sep 8-10

1

20

49

30

*

2003 Aug 4-6

1

24

52

23

*

2003 Jul 7-9

1

23

50

26

*

2003 Jun 12-15

1

25

49

25

*

2003 May 19-21

1

20

47

31

1

2003 May 5-7

1

21

50

28

*

2003 Apr 7-9

2

25

51

22

*

2003 Mar 29-30

1

25

51

23

*

2003 Mar 24-25

3

30

47

20

--

2003 Mar 3-5

1

21

46

32

*

2003 Feb 17-19

1

17

48

34

*

2003 Feb 3-6

2

20

53

25

*

2003 Jan 20-22

1

19

49

31

*

2003 Jan 13-16

2

20

50

28

*

* Less than 0.5%

4. Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?

 

 

Getting
better

Getting
worse

SAME
(vol.)

No
opinion

2005

%

%

%

%

2005 Apr 18-21

31

61

5

3

         

2005 Apr 4-7

35

56

6

3

2005 Mar 21-23

33

59

6

2

2005 Mar 7-10

41

50

6

3

2005 Feb 21-24

43

48

7

2

2005 Feb 7-10

47

44

7

2

2005 Jan 3-5

48

42

7

3

2004

       

2004 Dec 5-8

47

42

8

3

2004 Nov 7-10

49

43

6

2

2004 Oct 11-14

39

50

8

3

2004 Oct 9-10

43

48

7

2

2004 Sep 13-15

47

45

6

2

2004 Aug 9-11

45

46

7

2

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

48

43

7

2

2004 Jul 8-11

51

38

7

4

2004 Jun 3-6

47

45

6

2

2004 May 2-4

43

51

4

2

2004 Apr 5-8

47

45

6

2

2004 Mar 8-11

44

47

7

2

2004 Feb 9-12

53

40

6

1

2004 Jan 12-15

53

39

6

2

2004 Jan 2-5

66

27

4

3

2003

       

2003 Dec 11-14

60

32

7

1

2003 Nov 3-5

53

37

8

2

2003 Oct 24-26

47

43

8

2

2003 Oct 6-8

45

46

7

2

2003 Sep 8-10

40

50

8

2

2003 Aug 4-6

44

45

9

2

2003 Jul 7-9

43

47

8

2

2003 Jun 12-15

45

43

10

2

2003 May 19-21

40

48

10

2

2003 May 5-7

42

51

5

2

2003 Apr 7-9

36

51

11

2

2003 Mar 29-30

33

56

9

2

2003 Mar 24-25

39

47

11

3

2003 Mar 3-5

23

67

7

3

2003 Feb 17-19

26

63

9

2

2003 Feb 3-6

27

60

11

2

2003 Jan 20-22

29

57

12

2

2003 Jan 13-16

34

54

10

2

(Vol.) = Volunteered response

 

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GROUPS (COMBINED RESPONSES: Q.3-4)

 

 


Positive


Mixed


Negative

Undesig-
nated

2005

%

%

%

%

2005 Apr 18-21

22

20

55

3

 

 

 

 

2005 Apr 4-7

23

22

52

3

2005 Mar 21-23

25

18

54

3

2005 Mar 7-10

27

24

46

3

2005 Feb 21-24

31

21

45

3

2005 Feb 7-10

34

20

44

2

2005 Jan 3-5

34

23

40

3

2004

 

 

 

 

2004 Dec 5-8

32

22

42

4

2004 Nov 7-10

30

25

43

2

2004 Oct 11-14

27

21

49

3

2004 Oct 9-10

30

19

48

3

2004 Sep 13-15

32

23

43

2

2004 Aug 9-11

32

22

44

2

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

33

21

43

3

2004 Jul 8-11

31

26

39

4

2004 Jun 3-6

27

30

41

2

2004 May 2-4

25

23

50

2

2004 Apr 5-8

28

26

44

2

2004 Mar 8-11

26

26

46

2

2004 Feb 9-12

28

31

40

1

2004 Jan 12-15

30

31

38

1

2004 Jan 2-5

38

33

26

3

2003

 

 

 

 

2003 Dec 11-14

33

33

33

1

2003 Nov 3-5

25

34

39

2

2003 Oct 24-26

22

30

46

2

2003 Oct 6-8

18

32

48

2

2003 Sep 8-10

17

29

52

2

2003 Aug 4-6

19

32

47

2

2003 Jul 7-9

19

31

48

2

2003 Jun 12-15

21

31

46

2

2003 May 19-21

15

32

50

3

2003 May 5-7

16

34

48

2

2003 Apr 7-9

20

27

51

2

2003 Mar 29-30

18

26

54

2

2003 Mar 24-25

24

28

45

3

2003 Mar 3-5

12

20

64

4

2003 Feb 17-19

11

24

63

2

2003 Feb 3-6

12

27

59

2

2003 Jan 20-22

13

26

59

2

2003 Jan 13-16

14

29

54

3


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/15985/Economic-Indicators-Continue-Downward-Slide.aspx
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