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Support Exists for Both Troop Withdrawal Proposals

Support Exists for Both Troop Withdrawal Proposals

Majority favors either of two different approaches

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- It has been well established that Americans favor the initiation of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. While all sides in the political debate seem to favor some type of withdrawal, the question has now shifted to how soon and how many.

New Gallup polling suggests that Americans are not necessarily finely tuned to the nuances of various proposals to withdraw troops. The poll -- conducted Sept. 24-27, 2007 -- included separate questions asking Americans about two sharply different plans for withdrawal of troops from Iraq. The first was a short description of the Gen. David Petraeus-President Bush plan to withdraw about 40,000 troops by next summer, but not to make a commitment to further withdrawals until that time. The other was a basic description of a plan introduced in the Senate by Democratic senators that calls for the withdrawal of most U.S. troops within nine months, with the remaining troops to serve only support roles (a proposal that failed to pass in the Senate). Outwardly, these two plans seem similar. In reality however, these plans are very different. One would still leave 130,000 troops in Iraq by next summer, while the other would have most troops withdrawn by that point.

Yet, the results from the poll show that similar and large percentages of Americans favor each plan. Two-thirds of Americans favor the Bush-Petraeus plan, while almost as many favor a version of a plan introduced in the Senate by Democrats.

Do you favor or oppose a plan to reduce U.S. troop levels in Iraq from roughly 170,000 to about 130,000 by next summer, without making commitments for additional troop reductions until that time?

 

 

Favor

Oppose

No opinion

       

2007 Sep 24-27

66%

30

4

Do you favor or oppose a plan that would withdraw most U.S. troops from Iraq within nine months' time, with any remaining U.S. troops serving in Iraq only filling support roles?

 

 

Favor

Oppose

No opinion

       

2007 Sep 24-27

63%

34

3

Looking at this more closely, the data show that a substantial number of Americans (45%) favors both plans.

 

Combined Reactions to Two Proposed Plans for
Withdrawal of Troops From Iraq

 

2007 Sep 24-27

 

%

Favor both plans

45

Favor Petraeus-Bush plan, oppose Democrats' plan

20

Favor Democrats' plan, oppose Petraeus-Bush plan

17

Oppose both plans

13

No opinion

5

In other words:

  • Only 13% of Americans oppose both plans, meaning that the vast majority of Americans agree with at least one of these two plans to withdraw troops from Iraq.
  • Nearly half of Americans say they favor both plans.
  • Twenty percent favor only the Petraeus-Bush plan.
  • Seventeen percent favor only the Democrats' plan.

There are differences in support for the plans among political groups, as would be imagined, but there are also broad areas of crossover support.

 

 

Plan to withdraw most U.S. troops from Iraq within 9 months (Senate Democrats)

Plan to reduce U.S. troops from 170,000 to 130,000 by next summer; no further commitments (Petraeus-Bush)

 

% Favor

% Favor

Republicans

40

74

Independents

67

64

Democrats

82

62

The most interesting finding here is the substantial support among Democrats for the Petraeus-Bush plan that would call for withdrawing some troops now, but would leave 130,000 troops in place by next summer with no commitment to withdraw more. A smaller (but still substantial) percentage of Republicans support the more fast-moving Democratic plan to withdraw "most" troops within nine months. (It is important to note that the question did not identify the political origins of either plan).

Forced Choice

After respondents had given their opinions of both of the troop-withdrawal plans, they were asked to choose between the two.

If you had to choose, which plan would you say you favor -- [ROTATED: reducing troop levels to 130,000 by next summer and not committing to further reductions until that time, (or) withdrawing most U.S. troops from Iraq within nine months' time]?

 

 

Reducing troop levels and not committing to further reductions

Withdrawing most troops within 9 months' time

No
opinion

       

2007 Sep 24-27

44%

53

4

When respondents are forced to make this choice, there is a slight preference for the more aggressive Democratic plan to withdraw most troops within the next nine months.

Bottom Line

It appears that Americans are less rigid about the precise details of the speed with which U.S. troops are withdrawn from Iraq than might have been thought, as long as at least some withdrawal is underway.

While elected officials in Washington, D.C. make fine-tuned distinctions between the various ways in which troops could be withdrawn, these data suggest that average Americans are not nearly as specific in their wishes. Almost half of Americans support both of two different plans for withdrawal. Factoring this group together with the smaller groups that support just one or the other plan, the results show that either of the plans for withdrawal of troops tested in this research has majority support from the American public.

One interpretation of these findings is that any plan that includes withdrawal has a good chance of gaining at least initial support from Americans. The way the basic questions about the two plans were structured, respondents may not have assumed that they were being asked if one plan was better than another, but rather about each plan as an option in and of itself. Some opponents of the war, in other words, may have felt that some plan to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq was better than no plan at all.

The data do show a slight preference for the plan that speeds up troop withdrawal to the point where most troops would be gone within the next nine months. But that preference is apparently not so rigid that many of those who favor that option would not support a slower plan as well.

In general, these data suggest that Bush administration policy in Iraq is well within the acceptable range for the American public. The results seem to suggest that as long as the administration is beginning the process of withdrawing at least some troops from Iraq, a majority of the American public will be satisfied.

Survey Methods

Results for this panel study are based on telephone interviews with 1,006 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 24-27, 2007. Respondents were drawn from Gallup's household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. The final sample is weighted so it is representative of U.S. adults nationwide. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/28876/Americans-Favor-Both-Bushs-Democrats-Troop-Withdrawal-Proposals.aspx
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