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Despite September 11 Attacks, Americans Optimistic About Economic Future

Despite September 11 Attacks, Americans Optimistic About Economic Future

Americans remain very confident that the U.S. economy will be prosperous in the future

by Frank Newport and Dennis Jacobe

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- One of the aspects of American life most immediately affected by the events of September 11 is the economy. In fact, economic concerns have moved to a point of such potential seriousness that President Bush used his radio address over the weekend to make a special effort to rally the country in support of the economy. Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York has made a special plea for people to come into his city and spend money to help the economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan immediately reduced interest rates by 50 basis points when the markets reopened last week, and many think he may do so again when the Federal Open Market Committee meets next week.

At the heart of much of this concern is the average American consumer -- whose spending patterns and behavior will, many economists think, be a pivotal factor in determining the course of the economy in the months ahead.

There is little question that the American public perceives at least a short-term negative impact on the economy from the attacks. It is hard to imagine otherwise, given the impact the events have had on the airline and travel industries. On the other hand, Americans remain strongly confident in the longer-term prospects for the U.S. economy. Indeed, the public appears to be highly optimistic that economic conditions will be much improved a year from now.

Significant Private Sector Impact Expected

This weekend's CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted September 21-22, asked Americans employed in the private sector about their perceptions of the impact of the terrorist attacks on their companies. Nearly half (46%) agree that their company has been or will be hurt by the terrorist attacks. (Seventeen percent say that their company has already been hurt and another 29% say they expect their company will be hurt.)

Of course, this negative impact comes on top of an already very weak economy. Thus, it is not surprising that when a broad sample of all adult Americans is asked directly about the current condition of the economy, only 7% say it is very good --- the lowest such rating since Gallup started asking this question in 1997. Similarly, only 57% in total say the economy is either very good or somewhat good -- again the lowest rating since we've been asking this question, and down from 82% in January 2001.

Many Americans Do Not Acknowledge Recession

At the same time, while economists may be nearly unanimous in their assumption that the nation is already in a recession, since the attacks there has been almost no increase in the number of rank and file Americans who agree. In this weekend's poll, about half (52%) of Americans say we are in a recession. This is essentially unchanged from a poll conducted the weekend before the attacks. And, it is not nearly as high as in 1991-92 -- when around 80% of Americans said the country was in a recession.

Further, despite the fact that many employed Americans say that the attacks and their aftermath have had an effect on their places of business, and despite extensive news coverage of layoffs in the airline industry since the attacks, employee fears of job loss have not increased. Only 13% of employed respondents say they think they are very likely or fairly likely to be laid off. This is only one percent higher than it was in April (12%).

Many Americans Say They Are in a Good Position to Spend

One of the most closely watched economic issues in the wake of September 11 is whether or not the average American will delay or cancel purchases of goods and services. Certainly, in the immediate aftermath of the attacks, reports indicated that retail sales were down, that travel was down very substantially, and that consumers were delaying large purchases.

But weekend poll results show that 43% of Americans say they feel they are in a good position to spend money -- up from 35% in April and 30% in October 1991. Of course, on a relative basis this is not outstanding -- more than half of all Americans (53%) say that they are NOT in a good position to spend. Still, the fact that the numbers have become more, rather than less, optimistic compared to April suggests that the September 11 events themselves may not be causing the dramatic curtailing of spending that many anticipated.

The Best News by Far Is that Almost All Americans Remain Confident in the U.S. Economy

The most positive news from the recent poll comes in response to questions about the longer-term prospects for the economy. Three out of four Americans (77%) say that they think the economy a year from now will be in very good or somewhat good shape -- up from April 2001 and at around 2000 levels.

Similarly, 91% of Americans say they are confident that the U.S. economy will be prosperous in the long-term.

Long-term confidence in the economy may not produce the short-term benefits many economists are looking for now, but that confidence is essential if the damage done to the economy on September 11 is truly going to be short-term.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,005 adults, 18 years and older, conducted September 21-22, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

How would you rate economic conditions in this country today – as very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?

 

 

Very
good

Somewhat
good

Somewhat
poor

Very
poor

No
opinion

 

%

%

%

%

%

2001 Sep 21-22

7

50

34

8

1

           

2001 Apr 20-22

10

57

25

7

1

2001 Feb 9-11

16

64

16

3

1

2001 Jan 15-16

24

58

14

4

*

2000 Jun 6-7

39

46

9

5

1

2000 Mar 10-12

42

44

10

3

1

1999 Jun 25-27

34

50

10

6

*

1999 Jan 8-10

41

48

8

3

*

1998 Jul 7-8

29

50

15

5

1

1998 Jan 25-26

24

57

14

4

1

1998 Jan 24-25

24

57

13

5

1

1998 Jan 23-24

24

57

15

4

*

1997 Oct 27-29

24

55

15

4

2

1997 Aug 22-25

17

52

21

9

1



Now thinking about a year from now, do you expect economic conditions in this country will be -- very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?

 

 

Very
good

Somewhat good

Somewhat poor

Very
poor

No
opinion

 

%

%

%

%

%

2001 Sep 21-22

21

56

15

5

3

           

2001 Apr 20-24

16

54

18

9

3

2001 Feb 9-11

18

53

21

6

2

2001 Jan 15-16

13

55

22

8

2

2000 Jun 6-7

24

56

10

5

5

2000 Mar 10-12

24

55

13

4

4

1999 Jun 25-27

21

55

15

7

2

1999 Jan 8-10

25

56

12

4

3

1998 Jul 7-8

19

54

14

7

6

1997 Oct 27-29

20

55

18

4

3



Thinking of your own financial situation just now, do you feel you are in a GOOD position to buy some of the things you would like to have, or is now a rather BAD time for you to spend money?

 

 

Good
position

Bad
position

Both good/bad
(vol.)

No
opinion

 

%

%

%

%

2001 Sep 21-22

43

53

2

2

         

2001 Apr 6-8

35

61

3

1

1991 Oct 17-21

30

67

--

3

1978 Mar 31-Apr 3

28

55

14

3



Do you think the economy is now in a recession, or not?

 

Yes

No

No opinion

 

%

%

%

2001 Sep 21-22

52

43

5

       

2001 Sep 7-10

51

43

6

2001 May 10-14

33

62

5

2001 Apr 6-8

42

52

6

2001 Mar 5-7 ^

31

64

5

2001 Feb 1-4 ^

44

49

7

1994 May 20-22

35

61

4

1994 Feb 26-28

34

62

4

1993 Dec 4-6

45

50

5

1992 Sep 11-15

79

19

2

1992 Jan 3-6

84

14

2

1991 Mar

81

16

4

 

^

Based on half sample.



Thinking about the next twelve months, how likely do you think it is that you will lose your job or be laid off -- Is it very likely, fairly likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?

BASED ON -- 589 -- ADULTS EMPLOYED FULL OR PART-TIME; ±4 PCT. PTS.

 

 

Very
likely

Fairly
likely

Not too likely

Not at all likely

No
opinion

 

%

%

%

%

%

2001 Sep 21-22

7

6

25

62

*

           

2001 Apr 6-8

5

7

36

52

*

1998 Dec 4-6

5

7

27

60

1

1997 Jun 26-29

3

6

26

63

2

1996 Apr 9-10

5

9

34

51

1

1993 Dec 4-6

5

7

27

59

2

1991 Oct

6

8

26

59

1

1991 Jul

5

10

25

59

1

1991 Mar

5

7

22

65

1

1990 Oct

7

9

21

62

1

1990 Jul

6

6

24

62

2

1989 Feb

4

8

35

53

*

1983 Apr

8

8

26

55

4

1982 Nov

9

10

29

48

4

1982 Jun

8

7

27

54

4

1982 Jan

5

10

25

57

3

1980 Sep

6

9

24

60

2

1980 May

6

8

24

60

2

1979 Nov

3

8

18

66

4

1976 Oct

6

6

21

64

3

1975 Apr

4

8

22

63

3

1975 Jan

5

10

27

54

4



Just your best guess, would you say the financial prospects of the company or organization you work for -- [ROTATED: have already been hurt by the terrorist attacks, have not yet been hurt but will be, or will not be hurt by the terrorist attacks]?

BASED ON -- 391 -- ADULTS EMPLOYED AT PRIVATE COMPANY OR NON-PROFIT ORGANIZATION; ±5 PCT. PTS.

 

 


Already
been hurt


Not yet hurt, but will be


Will not
be hurt

Has been helped
(vol.)

 

No
opinion

 

%

%

%

%

%

2001 Sep 21-22

17

29

52

1

1




Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/4930/Despite-September-Attacks-Americans-Optimistic-About-Economic-Future.aspx
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