GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- It remains to be seen whether yesterday's crash of an American Airlines passenger jet in New York City was related to terrorism or was the result of mechanical failures, but recent polling shows that it happened at a time when Americans' fear of more terrorist attacks was subsiding. Whatever the cause, the perceived safety of air travel may hang in the balance, as fear of air travel was one of the top public responses to the events of Sept. 11, and close to half of Americans admitted to being less likely to fly as a result.
The percentage of Americans who are worried that they (or a family member) will be the victim of a future terrorist attack has fallen steadily over the past month, and was just 40% in a Nov. 2-4 CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, compared to 58% on Sept. 11.
How worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim of a terrorist attack -- very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all? |
Nov. 2-4, ‘01 |
Also, prior to Monday's crash, the percentage of Americans who believe that another terrorist attack is imminent was down sharply. Twenty-four percent of Americans in early November said that it was very likely that another terrorist attack would occur "over the next several weeks" compared to 40% in mid-October. Still, another 50% said that it was somewhat likely that another attack would occur, suggesting that -- if terrorism is involved in Monday's tragic incident -- it would not be altogether surprising to the average American.
How likely is it that there will be further acts of terrorism in the United States over the next several weeks -- very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?
BASED ON -- 468 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; ±5 PCT. PTS.
Very |
Somewhat likely |
Not too |
Not at all likely |
No |
|
2001 Nov 2-4 |
24% |
50 |
16 |
6 |
4 |
2001 Oct 19-21 |
40% |
45 |
10 |
3 |
2 |
Fear of Air Travel Evident Before Now
White House spokesman Ari Fleischer told reporters Monday that "we will see how the public responds, but the president's message is that they should still travel, they should still live their full lives."
It is of course too soon to predict the crash's impact on the public's travel behavior – regardless of the cause of the tragedy. If public reaction to Sept. 11 is any guide, adhering to the administration's admonitions may be easier said than done. Gallup polling after the Sept. 11 attacks found close to half the public (48%) saying they were less likely to fly on airplanes. More recently, Gallup found that, among Americans who had previously intended to travel by air during the Thanksgiving or Christmas seasons, 38% were now less likely to fly.
The reactions to the Sept. 11 jetliner crashes were much stronger than they have been for other airplane incidents of the past few years, such as TWA flight 800 over Long Island in 1999, and the 1999 crashes of Egypt Air and Alaska Airlines off the coasts of Massachusetts and California, respectively. In each of these cases, only about one in five Americans responded that they were less likely to fly commercial airliners as a result.
Keeping an Even Keel
Aside from air travel, about a third of Americans told Gallup that the attacks would affect their daily lives more generally, saying that they would change their personal lives or activities in order to reduce their chances of being a victim of terrorist attacks. More specifically, 35% were now less willing to enter skyscrapers and 30% were reluctant to attend events with large crowds.
However, despite these moderate precautions, few Americans seem to be panicking. At the most, only a quarter of Americans have said they are "very worried" about their chances of being a terrorist victim since Sept. 11. Similarly, even in the midst of the worst of the recent anthrax mail scare, Gallup found only 23% of Americans reportedly using more caution in handling their mail. Less than 10% of Americans had stockpiled household provisions, avoided public events and crowds, or purchased a weapon. Less than 5% had discussed bio-terrorism with a physician, tried to get an anthrax or smallpox vaccine, or purchased a gas mask or other protective clothing.
Survey Methods
The November results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,012 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Nov. 2-4, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
How worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim of a terrorist attack -- very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?
BASED ON -- 468 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; ±5 PCT. PTS.
|
|
|
Not |
KNOW A VICTIM (vol.) |
|
||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
2001 Nov 2-4 |
10 |
30 |
28 |
31 |
0 |
1 |
|
2001 Oct 19-21 |
13 |
30 |
33 |
23 |
* |
1 |
|
2001 Oct 11-14 |
18 |
33 |
35 |
14 |
* |
* |
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
24 |
35 |
27 |
14 |
* |
* |
|
2001 Sep 21-22 |
14 |
35 |
32 |
18 |
* |
1 |
|
2001 Sep 14-15 |
18 |
33 |
35 |
13 |
* |
1 |
|
2001 Sep 11 ^ |
23 |
35 |
24 |
16 |
1 |
1 |
|
2000 Apr 7-9 † |
4 |
20 |
41 |
34 |
-- |
1 |
|
1998 Aug 20 ^ ‡ |
10 |
22 |
38 |
29 |
-- |
1 |
|
1996 Jul 20-21 † |
13 |
26 |
34 |
27 |
-- |
* |
|
1996 Apr 9-10 # |
13 |
22 |
33 |
32 |
-- |
* |
|
1995 Apr 21-23 # |
14 |
28 |
33 |
24 |
-- |
1 |
|
^ |
Based on one-night poll of 619 national adults with a margin of error of ±4 pct. pts. |
||||||
† |
Asked of a half sample. |
||||||
‡ |
WORDING: How worried are you that someone in your family will become a victim of a terrorist attack similar to the bombing in Oklahoma City? |
||||||
# |
WORDING: How worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim of a terrorist attack similar to the bombing in Oklahoma City? |
How worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim of a terrorist attack -- very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?
Very/somewhat worried |
Not too/not at all worried |
|
% |
% |
|
2001 Nov 2-4 |
40 |
59 |
2001 Oct 19-21 |
43 |
56 |
2001 Oct 11-14 |
51 |
49 |
2001 Oct 5-6 |
59 |
41 |
2001 Sep 21-22 |
49 |
50 |
2001 Sep 14-15 |
51 |
48 |
2001 Sep 11 |
58 |
40 |
2000 Apr 7-9 |
24 |
75 |
1998 Aug 20 |
32 |
67 |
1996 Jul 20-21 |
39 |
61 |
1996 Apr 9-10 |
35 |
65 |
1995 Apr 21-23 |
42 |
57 |
Do you think you will change any aspect of your personal life or activities in order to reduce your chances of being a victim of terrorist attacks -- or will you not make any changes in your personal life?
Yes, will make changes |
No, will not |
No opinion |
|
2001 Sep 11 |
36% |
61 |
3 |
1995 Apr 20 |
16% |
83 |
1 |
Do today's events make you less willing to fly on airplanes, or not?
Yes, less willing |
No, not |
No opinion |
|
2001 Sep 11 |
48% |
50 |
2 |
Before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, were you considering flying somewhere for the Thanksgiving or Christmas holidays, or not?
|
Yes |
No |
No opinion |
2001 Oct 5-6 |
26% |
74 |
* |
As a result of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, are you less likely to fly on major commercial airlines for the coming holidays, or not?
BASED ON -- 210 -- CONSIDERING FLYING SOMEWHERE FOR THANKSGIVING OR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAYS; ±7 PCT. PTS.
|
Yes |
No |
No opinion |
2001 Oct 5-6 |
38% |
62 |
0 |
COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.30/Q.31)
2001 Oct 5-6 |
||
% |
||
Yes, were considering flying somewhere for Thanksgiving or Christmas holidays |
26 |
|
Less likely to fly on major commercial airlines |
(10) |
|
Not less likely to fly on major commercial airlines |
(16) |
|
No, were not considering flying somewhere for Thanksgiving/Christmas |
74 |
|
No opinion |
* |
I'm going to read you something people may do because of their concern about terrorism. Please tell me whether using more caution in handling mail is something you have done, something you are seriously considering, something you are not seriously considering, or something you haven't even thought about.
|
|
|
Haven't thought |
|
||
2001 Nov 2-4 |
27% |
22 |
21 |
29 |
1 |
|
2001 Oct 19-21 ^ |
23% |
30 |
16 |
30 |
1 |
|
^ |
WORDING: Next, I'm going to read you some things people may do because of their concern about terrorism. For each one, please tell me if it is something you have done, something you are seriously considering, something you are not seriously considering, or something you haven't even thought about. How about -- Using more caution in handling mail? |
Next, I'm going to read you some things people may do because of their concern about terrorism. For each one, please tell me if it is something you have done, something you are seriously considering, something you are not seriously considering, or something you haven't even thought about. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
|
|
|
Not seriously considering |
Haven't thought |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Using more caution in handling mail |
23 |
30 |
16 |
30 |
Avoiding airline travel |
11 |
15 |
20 |
51 |
Consulting a Web site or other source of information about terrorism preparedness |
10 |
13 |
14 |
62 |
Stockpiling food or water |
9 |
12 |
20 |
59 |
Avoiding public events or crowded areas |
8 |
11 |
25 |
54 |
Purchasing a weapon |
8 |
9 |
16 |
64 |
Discussing the treatment of biological or chemical warfare with your doctor |
3 |
8 |
17 |
71 |
Trying to get a prescription for antibiotics |
3 |
6 |
20 |
70 |
Trying to get a vaccination for anthrax or small pox |
2 |
15 |
21 |
62 |
Purchasing a gas mask or other protective clothing |
2 |
6 |
21 |
71 |