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EU5 Investors Optimistic About U.S. Financial Markets

by Dennis Jacobe, PhD
Gallup Chief Economist

As part of the Gallup/UBS "Index of Investor Optimism -- EU5" poll, Gallup asked European investors a number of special questions about the financial markets in EU5 countries and around the world. Overall, European investors are most optimistic about U.S. financial markets and the U.S. dollar. They are also optimistic about the euro and the prospect that the European economy will be in recovery six months from now. Results of this April 2002 special poll* include the following.

When asked to rank how optimistic they feel about the financial markets in four areas of the world:

  • 43% of EU5 investors say they are most optimistic about the financial markets in the United States over the next 12 months.
  • 28% of EU5 investors say they are most optimistic about the financial markets in Europe over the next 12 months.
  • 18% of EU5 investors say they are most optimistic about the financial markets in Japan over the next 12 months.
  • 7% of EU5 investors say they are most optimistic about the financial markets in the emerging markets over the next 12 months.

These percentages have been largely the same since February, but contrast with January's percentages when more EU5 investors said they were optimistic about Europe (42%) than said they were optimistic about the United States (33%).

When asked to rank the attractiveness of four world currencies, taking into account fluctuating exchange rates:

  • 54% of EU5 investors say they find the U.S. dollar most attractive.
  • 20% of EU5 investors say they find the euro most attractive.
  • 17% of EU5 investors say they find the British pound most attractive.
  • 6% of EU5 investors say they find the Japanese yen most attractive.

When asked about some other related topics:

  • 59% of EU5 investors say they feel very optimistic (18%) or somewhat optimistic (41%) about the introduction of the euro -- down a little from 63% in March.
  • 68% of EU5 investors say that they think the UK will adopt the euro in the next two (26%) to five years (42%).
  • 33% of EU5 investors think the euro will be somewhat (30%) or much (3%) weaker against the dollar a year from now, while 22% feel it will be somewhat (18%) or much (4%) stronger against the dollar a year from now.
  • 57% of EU5 investors are somewhat (50%) or very (7%) optimistic that the EU Council will achieve its goal of making Europe one of the most competitive and dynamic economic areas in the world in the years ahead.
  • 40% of EU5 investors say that the European economy has hit bottom as of April 2002, but 56% say it has not.
  • 59% of EU5 investors say they are somewhat (52%) or very (7%) confident that the European economy will be in recovery six months from now.

*Results are based on interviews with approximately 200 investors each in France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, and Spain conducted April 1-14, 2002. For results based on a total sample of approximately 1,000 investors, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3%.

Gallup


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