GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
The possibility of a United States-led military invasion of Iraq has now become the major focus of news coverage, in many ways overshadowing the one-year anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. The current discussion of possible war against the regime of Saddam Hussein is reminiscent of what went on in the fall of 1990, when the current U.S. president's father was also attempting to build support for such action.
A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, along with a review of other recent polls and polling conducted 12 years ago, provide the public opinion context for the continuing debate on this important topic.
Major Findings
A number of polls conducted in recent weeks have confirmed the basic finding that a majority of Americans -- between 51% and 64% -- support the concept of U.S. military action in Iraq in order to remove Saddam Hussein from power. A historic review shows that this level of support for military action is actually higher than the support seen in the fall of 1990 for military action in what became the Persian Gulf War against Iraq.
But a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll finds that the public -- as was the case in 1990 -- is quite strong in its feeling that both Congress and the United Nations should give their approval to such action before it is taken.
Additionally, despite this general approval for the possibility of action against Iraq, a majority of Americans feel the administration has not done enough to explain why such action is necessary at this particular point in time.
A Gallup Poll conducted last month indicated that Americans generally believe there are two main reasons the administration is contemplating action against Iraq: Iraq's possession of weapons of mass destruction and Saddam Hussein's sponsorship of terrorism that affects the United States. The early September poll confirms that these continue to be the two most important reasons the public supports for such military action.
President Bush's overall job approval rating has stabilized at 66%, no different from two weeks ago. And despite the extensive media focus on the situation in Iraq in recent weeks, Americans say the economic condition of the United States will be more important to their vote in November than the possibility of war with Iraq -- by almost a 2-to-1 margin.
Details
Support for U.S. military action in Iraq in order to remove Saddam Hussein from power has generally been above the 50% level in a number of surveys conducted over the past 10 years, stretching back to the end of the Persian Gulf War. Surveys conducted within the last several weeks indicate that this same type of support persists to this day.
It is important to note that support levels for acting in Iraq surged in many surveys conducted after Sept. 11 last year, most likely because Americans associated Iraq with terrorism.
Now, most polls show that support levels have returned to their pre-Sept. 11 levels; that is, still reflecting majority support, but lower than in the immediate aftermath of the terrorist attacks.
The recent surveys have all stressed that military action in Iraq would be taken in order to remove Saddam Hussein from power, but each has worded the question in a somewhat different way, which in turn has an effect on the exact pattern of responses. Nevertheless, all of the surveys show support at or above the 50% majority level:
- A Gallup Poll conducted in late August showed 53% support for "sending American ground troops to the Persian Gulf in an attempt to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq."
- A poll just released by The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press shows 64% of Americans favor "taking military action in Iraq to end Saddam Hussein's rule."
- An ABC News poll conducted in late August found 56% support for "having U.S. forces take military action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power."
- A CNN/Time poll released this past weekend had 51% support for "military action involving ground troops to attempt to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq."
- A Los Angeles Times poll conducted in late August showed 59% support when respondents were asked, "Do you think the United States should take military action in order to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq, or not?"
- A Newsweek poll conducted last week found 62% of Americans in favor when asked the following question: "In the fight against terrorism, the Bush Administration has talked about using military force against Saddam Hussein and his military in Iraq. Would you support using military force against Iraq, or not?"
These support levels are at or above those for military action against Iraq in the fall of 1990. At that point, U.S. and allied troops had already begun to move into Saudi Arabia in response to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Although there was strong support for this preliminary movement of troops, support levels for the concept of "going to war with Iraq in order to drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait" was only between 37% and 52% in the months leading up to and including early January 1991.
Then, as now, the American public supported the idea of congressional involvement in any decision to go to war. Asked directly in the current Sept. 2-4 CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll whether "it is necessary for the Bush administration to get a resolution of support from the Congress before it attacks Iraq," 69% of Americans say yes. During the build-up to the Gulf War in November 1990, 74% of Americans said President Bush (the elder) should be able to go to war against Iraq "only if Congress approves of his action." Even by January 1991, some 60% of Americans continued to say that it was very important that President Bush get the approval of Congress before taking military action against Iraq. Only 15% said it was not too important or not important at all.
Almost seven out of 10 Americans in the current poll agree that it should be necessary for the Bush administration to "get a resolution of support from the United Nations before it attacks Iraq."
What is the rationale for military action in Iraq? The current Gallup Poll gave Americans a list of five possible explanations for such action, and asked respondents to say whether each was a good or bad reason. Two stand out as being the ones most supported by the public: (1) Saddam Hussein is developing weapons of mass destruction and (2) Iraq supports terrorism against the United States. The other three explanations for possible military action in Iraq (helping Israel, ensuring a stable supply of oil, and finishing what the previous Bush administration did not accomplish) have less than majority support as a "good reason."
Gallup polls conducted over the past several weeks have shown that large majorities of Americans feel Saddam Hussein and Iraq either have or are developing weapons of mass destruction, and that Saddam is sponsoring terrorists who threaten the United States.
These two reasons are perhaps the most important ones being stressed by Bush administration members who are attempting to bolster their case for taking action against Iraq. Still, despite the public's agreement that these seem to be good rationales, there continues to be an apparent communication gap between the administration and the public. The current poll shows that a clear majority of Americans -- 58% -- say the Bush administration has not done enough to explain to the American public why the United States might take military action to remove Saddam Hussein from power.
By way of contrast, in mid-November 1990, 46% of Americans said then-President Bush had done enough to explain why U.S. forces may be "ordered into combat in the Persian Gulf," while 48% said he had not.
Despite the public's feelings that the Bush administration has not done a good job of explaining its reasons for possible military action in Iraq, it is not clear that the president's recent outspoken support for such action has had a negative impact on his standing among Americans. His job approval rating through Wednesday night is 66%, essentially the same as the 65% level measured Aug. 19-21.
Survey Methods
The latest results are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 national adults, aged 18+, conducted Sept. 2-4, 2002. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Thinking ahead to the elections for Congress this November, if you had to choose, which of the following issues will be more important to your vote -- [ROTATED: economic conditions, (or) the possibility of war with Iraq]?
|
|
Possibility of war with Iraq |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
2002 Sep 2-4 |
57% |
34 |
7 |
* |
0 |
2 |
||
|
2002 Aug 19-21 |
55% |
36 |
7 |
* |
* |
2 |
||
Turning again to Iraq,
Do you think the Bush administration has – or has not -- done enough to explain to the American public why the U.S. might take military action to remove Saddam Hussein from power?
|
Yes, has |
No, has not |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Sep 2-4 |
39% |
58 |
3 |
Q.48/Q.49 SPLIT SAMPLED
Do you think it is necessary for the Bush administration to get a resolution of support from the Congress before it attacks Iraq, or not?
BASED ON -- 507 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A
|
Yes, is necessary |
No, is not |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Sep 2-4 |
69% |
29 |
2 |
. Do you think it is necessary for the Bush administration to get a resolution of support from the United Nations before it attacks Iraq, or not?
BASED ON -- 496 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B
|
Yes, is necessary |
No, is not |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Sep 2-4 |
68% |
30 |
2 |
Do you think each of the following is a good or bad reason for the Bush administration to take military action to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq? How about –[RANDOM ORDER]?
BASED ON -- 496 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B
A. The administration believes Saddam Hussein is developing weapons of mass destruction
|
Good reason |
Bad reason |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Sep 2-4 |
80% |
17 |
3 |
B. The administration believes Saddam Hussein supports terrorism against the U.S.
|
Good reason |
Bad reason |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Sep 2-4 |
77% |
21 |
2 |
C. To ensure a more stable supply of oil
|
Good reason |
Bad reason |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Sep 2-4 |
43% |
55 |
2 |
D. To accomplish what the previous Bush administration did not do in the Persian Gulf War
|
Good reason |
Bad reason |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Sep 2-4 |
41% |
52 |
7 |
E. To help Israel
|
Good reason |
Bad reason |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Sep 2-4 |
45% |
48 |
7 |
