GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A Gallup Poll conducted last week finds growing concern about the economy and dissipating concern over the situation in Iraq. Nearly half of Americans mention some aspect of the economy as the most important problem facing the nation, while only about one-third mention something about Iraq or the war. Prior to the latest poll, Iraq and the economy were cited about equally.
Americans' ratings of the economy remain negative, but still show evidence of a rally effect first observed at the outset of the war. Americans express more confidence in President Bush than Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan or the Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress to recommend the right thing for the economy.
Most Important Problem
Forty-eight percent of Americans mention some aspect of the economy as the most important problem facing the country -- the highest this year, and the highest since May of 1996. Gallup has asked the most important problem question since 1939, and has tracked it monthly since January 2001.
Since the start of the year, fear of war and the situation in Iraq have been about as prominent in Americans' minds as the economy as the most important problem. In the latest poll, just 16% mention something about war or Iraq, a sharp drop after being at about the 30% level throughout this year.
The poll was conducted April 7-9, amid reports of U.S. success in Iraq and ultimately the fall of Baghdad on April 9. This may help explain the drop in the percent viewing Iraq as a major problem.
| Most Important Problem 2002-2003 |
 |
Ratings of Economy Still More Positive Than They Were Pre-War
Americans rate national economic conditions more positively now than they did immediately before the war with Iraq, but not as positively as they did at the very beginning of the war. Currently, 27% of Americans rate the economy as "excellent" or "good," while 22% rate it "poor." A majority, 51%, say it is "only fair." Prior to the war, more Americans characterized the economy as poor (32%) than as excellent or good (22%). But a March 24-25 Gallup Poll, conducted four days after the war started, showed substantially improved ratings, with 33% of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good, and just 20% calling it poor.
| Rating of Economic Conditions: 2003 |
 |
That same pattern is found in Americans' views on the direction of the economy. Now, 36% say it is getting better, while 51% say it is getting worse. Prior to the war, just 23% said it was getting better, while two-thirds said it was getting worse. Shortly after the war started, the number saying the economy was getting better increased to 39%.
| Economic Conditions: Getting Better or Getting Worse? |
 |
Public Shows Most Confident in Bush to Recommend Right Thing for Economy
The economy promises to be the biggest issue for the Bush administration as the intense focus on the war with Iraq begins to fade. Compared with other prominent economic leaders, Americans express the greatest amount of confidence in Bush to "recommend the right thing for the economy." Thirty-five percent express a great deal of confidence in the president, and 30% a fair amount. Sixty-five percent of Americans also express at least a fair amount of confidence in Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, but slightly fewer, 24%, express a great deal of confidence in him.
Only about half of Americans say they have at least a fair amount of confidence in the Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress on the economy. The public is slightly more likely to say they have a great deal of confidence in the Republican leaders (18%) than in the Democratic leaders (11%).
| Public Confidence in Economic Leadership |
 |
| Apr 7-9, 2003 |
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,018 adults, 18 years and older, conducted April 7-9, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? [Open-ended]
|
Apr 2003 |
Mar |
Feb 3-6, |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
||
|
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS (NET) |
48 |
38 |
46 |
|
|
1 |
Economy in general |
31 |
29 |
34 |
|
2 |
Unemployment/jobs |
11 |
8 |
10 |
|
3 |
Taxes |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
4 |
Lack of money |
2 |
* |
* |
|
5 |
Federal budget deficit/federal debt |
2 |
1 |
3 |
|
6 |
Corporate corruption |
1 |
* |
* |
|
7 |
Gap between rich and poor |
1 |
-- |
* |
|
8 |
Wage issues |
* |
* |
* |
|
9 |
High cost of living/inflation |
* |
1 |
* |
|
10 |
Recession |
* |
* |
* |
|
11 |
Fuel/oil prices |
* |
1 |
-- |
|
NON-ECONOMIC PROBLEMS (NET) |
59 |
78 |
70 |
|
|
1 |
Fear of war/feelings of fear in this country/war in Iraq |
16 |
29 |
35 |
|
2 |
Terrorism |
9 |
13 |
10 |
|
3 |
Poor healthcare/hospitals; high cost of healthcare |
5 |
8 |
5 |
|
4 |
Ethics/moral/religious/family decline; dishonesty; lack of integrity |
5 |
6 |
4 |
|
5 |
Education/poor education/access to education |
4 |
6 |
4 |
|
6 |
Dissatisfaction with government/Congress/ politicians/ candidates; poor leadership; corruption |
4 |
5 |
2 |
|
7 |
Poverty/hunger/ homelessness |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
8 |
National security |
3 |
4 |
3 |
|
9 |
Unifying the country |
2 |
* |
* |
|
10 |
Crime/violence |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
11 |
Medicare/Social Security issues |
2 |
2 |
3 |
|
12 |
Foreign aid/focus overseas |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
13 |
Lack of respect for each other |
1 |
* |
-- |
|
14 |
Children's behavior/way they are raised |
1 |
* |
1 |
|
15 |
International issues/problems |
1 |
11 |
7 |
|
16 |
Environment/pollution |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
17 |
Drugs |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
18 |
Immigration/illegal aliens |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
19 |
Abuse of power |
1 |
-- |
-- |
|
20 |
Care for the elderly |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
21 |
Abortion |
1 |
* |
1 |
|
22 |
Judicial system/courts/laws |
* |
2 |
* |
|
23 |
Race relations/ racism |
* |
* |
1 |
|
24 |
The media |
* |
1 |
* |
|
25 |
Welfare |
* |
* |
* |
|
26 |
Guns/gun control |
* |
-- |
-- |
|
27 |
School shootings/school violence |
* |
-- |
-- |
|
28 |
Lack of energy sources; the energy crisis |
* |
* |
* |
|
29 |
Overpopulation |
* |
* |
* |
|
Child abuse |
-- |
1 |
* |
|
|
Lack of military defense |
-- |
* |
-- |
|
|
AIDS |
-- |
* |
-- |
|
|
Space shuttle disaster/NASA |
-- |
-- |
1 |
|
|
Other non-economic |
4 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
No opinion |
5 |
3 |
5 |
|
|
Total |
124% |
146% |
143% |
How would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
|
|
|
Only |
|
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2003 |
|||||
|
2003 Apr 7-9 |
2 |
25 |
51 |
22 |
* |
|
2003 Mar 29-30 |
1 |
25 |
51 |
23 |
* |
|
2003 Mar 24-25 |
3 |
30 |
47 |
20 |
-- |
|
2003 Mar 3-5 |
1 |
21 |
46 |
32 |
* |
|
2003 Feb 17-19 |
1 |
17 |
48 |
34 |
* |
|
2003 Feb 3-6 |
2 |
20 |
53 |
25 |
* |
|
2003 Jan 20-22 |
1 |
19 |
49 |
31 |
* |
|
2003 Jan 13-16 |
2 |
20 |
50 |
28 |
* |
|
2002 |
|||||
|
2002 Dec 19-22 |
1 |
23 |
48 |
28 |
* |
|
2002 Dec 5-8 |
2 |
23 |
51 |
24 |
* |
|
2002 Nov 22-24 |
2 |
30 |
45 |
23 |
* |
|
2002 Oct 31-Nov 3 |
2 |
26 |
45 |
26 |
1 |
|
2002 Oct 3-6 |
2 |
24 |
46 |
27 |
1 |
|
2002 Sep 23-26 |
2 |
25 |
47 |
25 |
1 |
|
2002 Sep 5-8 |
2 |
22 |
53 |
23 |
* |
|
2002 Aug 19-21 |
1 |
23 |
47 |
28 |
1 |
|
2002 Aug 5-8 |
1 |
27 |
52 |
19 |
1 |
|
2002 Jul 29-31 |
2 |
27 |
48 |
22 |
1 |
|
2002 Jul 22-24 |
2 |
25 |
48 |
24 |
1 |
|
2002 Jul 9-11 |
2 |
26 |
51 |
20 |
1 |
|
2002 Jun 17-19 |
2 |
35 |
43 |
19 |
1 |
|
2002 Jun 3-6 |
3 |
33 |
49 |
14 |
1 |
|
2002 May 20-22 |
3 |
38 |
46 |
12 |
1 |
|
2002 May 6-9 |
2 |
33 |
51 |
14 |
* |
|
2002 Apr 22-24 |
2 |
37 |
46 |
14 |
1 |
|
2002 Apr 8-11 |
2 |
36 |
51 |
11 |
* |
|
2002 Mar 4-7 |
3 |
31 |
51 |
14 |
1 |
|
2002 Feb 4-6 |
2 |
26 |
55 |
16 |
1 |
|
2002 Jan 7-9 |
2 |
27 |
54 |
16 |
1 |
|
2001 |
|||||
|
2001 Dec 6-9 |
2 |
29 |
53 |
16 |
* |
|
2001 Nov 8-11 |
2 |
29 |
50 |
19 |
* |
|
2001 Oct 11-14 |
2 |
36 |
48 |
13 |
1 |
|
2001 Sep 14-15 |
3 |
43 |
44 |
9 |
1 |
|
2001 Sep 7-10 |
2 |
30 |
49 |
19 |
* |
|
2001 Aug 16-19 |
2 |
34 |
49 |
14 |
1 |
|
2001 Jul 19-22 |
3 |
38 |
47 |
11 |
1 |
|
2001 Jun 11-17 |
3 |
39 |
45 |
12 |
1 |
|
2001 May 10-14 |
3 |
37 |
45 |
15 |
* |
|
2001 Apr 6-8 |
4 |
41 |
41 |
14 |
* |
|
2001 Mar 5-7 |
3 |
43 |
43 |
10 |
1 |
|
2001 Feb 1-4 |
7 |
44 |
36 |
13 |
* |
|
2001 Jan 10-14 |
11 |
56 |
27 |
6 |
* |
|
2000 |
|||||
|
2000 Dec 2-4 |
12 |
51 |
28 |
8 |
1 |
|
2000 Nov 13-15 |
19 |
53 |
21 |
7 |
* |
|
2000 Oct 6-9 |
14 |
57 |
24 |
4 |
1 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
25 |
49 |
21 |
4 |
1 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
26 |
48 |
21 |
4 |
1 |
|
2000 May 18-21 |
17 |
49 |
24 |
9 |
1 |
|
2000 Apr 3-9 |
14 |
46 |
30 |
9 |
1 |
|
2000 Jan 7-10 |
19 |
52 |
23 |
5 |
1 |
|
1999 |
|||||
|
1999 Oct 21-24 |
16 |
49 |
27 |
8 |
* |
|
1999 Sep 10-14 |
20 |
47 |
24 |
8 |
1 |
|
1999 Aug 24-26 |
14 |
50 |
28 |
7 |
1 |
|
1999 Jun 4-5 |
18 |
56 |
21 |
5 |
* |
|
1999 Jan 15-17 |
14 |
55 |
27 |
4 |
* |
|
1998 |
|||||
|
1998 Dec 4-6 |
13 |
52 |
27 |
8 |
* |
|
1998 Oct 29-Nov 1 |
13 |
53 |
27 |
6 |
1 |
|
1998 Sep 1 |
11 |
54 |
25 |
9 |
1 |
|
1998 Mar 20-22 |
20 |
46 |
27 |
7 |
* |
|
1997 |
|||||
|
1997 Dec 18-21 |
7 |
41 |
38 |
12 |
2 |
|
1997 Nov 6-9 |
10 |
48 |
33 |
9 |
* |
|
1997 Aug 22-25^ |
8 |
41 |
38 |
13 |
* |
|
1997 May 6-7 |
7 |
39 |
38 |
15 |
1 |
|
1997 Jan 31-Feb 2 |
4 |
38 |
43 |
15 |
* |
|
1996 |
|||||
|
1996 Oct 26-29 |
5 |
42 |
39 |
13 |
1 |
|
1996 Aug 30-Sep 1 † |
3 |
34 |
46 |
16 |
1 |
|
1996 Jul 18-21 |
5 |
38 |
43 |
14 |
* |
|
1996 May 9-12 |
3 |
27 |
50 |
19 |
1 |
|
1996 Apr 9-10 |
1 |
26 |
52 |
20 |
1 |
|
1996 Mar 15-17 |
2 |
31 |
48 |
18 |
1 |
|
1996 Jan 5-7 |
1 |
28 |
47 |
23 |
1 |
|
1995 |
|||||
|
1995 Nov 6-8 |
2 |
28 |
47 |
22 |
1 |
|
1995 May 11-14 |
2 |
27 |
50 |
20 |
1 |
|
1994 |
|||||
|
1994 Dec 16-18 |
2 |
25 |
52 |
21 |
* |
|
1994 Nov 2-6 |
2 |
28 |
49 |
20 |
1 |
|
1994 Oct 22-25 |
1 |
25 |
52 |
21 |
1 |
|
1994 Jul 15-17 |
1 |
26 |
52 |
21 |
* |
|
1994 Apr 22-24 |
1 |
23 |
49 |
26 |
1 |
|
1994 Jan 15-17 |
* |
22 |
54 |
24 |
* |
|
1993 |
|||||
|
1993 Dec 4-6 |
1 |
20 |
57 |
21 |
1 |
|
1993 Nov 2-4 |
1 |
16 |
50 |
33 |
* |
|
1993 Aug 8-10 |
* |
10 |
49 |
40 |
1 |
|
1993 Jun 29-30 |
1 |
14 |
52 |
32 |
1 |
|
1993 Feb 12-14 |
* |
14 |
46 |
39 |
1 |
|
1992 |
|||||
|
1992 Dec 18-20 |
2 |
16 |
34 |
47 |
1 |
|
1992 Dec 4-6 |
1 |
14 |
41 |
43 |
1 |
|
1992 Oct 23-25 |
* |
11 |
45 |
43 |
1 |
|
1992 Sep 11-15 |
1 |
10 |
37 |
51 |
1 |
|
1992 Aug 31-Sep 2 † |
1 |
9 |
37 |
53 |
* |
|
1992 Jun 12-14 † |
1 |
11 |
47 |
41 |
* |
|
1992 Apr 9-12 † |
1 |
11 |
40 |
48 |
* |
|
1992 Jan 3-6 |
* |
12 |
46 |
41 |
1 |
|
^ Asked of half sample |
|||||
|
† Asked of Registered Voters |
|||||
Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?
|
Getting |
Getting |
SAME |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2003 |
||||
|
(NA) 2003 Apr 7-9 |
36 |
51 |
11 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2003 Mar 29-30 |
33 |
56 |
9 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2003 Mar 24-25 |
39 |
47 |
11 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2003 Mar 3-5 |
23 |
67 |
7 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2003 Feb 17-19 |
26 |
63 |
9 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2003 Feb 3-6 |
27 |
60 |
11 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2003 Jan 20-22 |
29 |
57 |
12 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2003 Jan 13-16 |
34 |
54 |
10 |
2 |
|
2002 |
||||
|
(NA) 2002 Dec 19-22 |
35 |
50 |
12 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2002 Dec 5-8 |
35 |
54 |
8 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2002 Nov 22-24 |
38 |
53 |
8 |
1 |
|
(NA) 2002 Oct 31-Nov 3 |
37 |
51 |
8 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2002 Oct 3-6 |
30 |
59 |
8 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2002 Sep 23-26 |
33 |
52 |
10 |
5 |
|
(NA) 2002 Sep 5-8 |
35 |
54 |
9 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2002 Aug 19-21 |
38 |
48 |
10 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2002 Aug 5-8 |
32 |
55 |
9 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2002 Jul 29-31 |
42 |
47 |
8 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2002 Jul 22-24 |
27 |
59 |
10 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2002 Jul 9-11 |
31 |
57 |
10 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2002 Jun 17-19 |
47 |
40 |
10 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2002 Jun 3-6 |
48 |
38 |
11 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2002 May 20-22 |
49 |
34 |
14 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2002 May 6-9 |
52 |
39 |
7 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2002 Apr 22-24 |
53 |
35 |
10 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2002 Apr 8-11 |
53 |
37 |
7 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2002 Mar 4-7 |
54 |
37 |
7 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2002 Feb 4-6 |
41 |
47 |
10 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2002 Jan 7-9 |
49 |
41 |
8 |
2 |
|
2001 |
||||
|
(NA) 2001 Dec 6-9 |
44 |
48 |
6 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2001 Nov 8-11 |
30 |
59 |
7 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2001 Oct 11-14 |
33 |
55 |
10 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2001 Sep 14-15 |
28 |
60 |
8 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2001 Sep 7-10 |
19 |
70 |
9 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2001 Aug 16-19 |
27 |
59 |
11 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2001 Jul 19-22 |
35 |
53 |
9 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2001 Jun 11-17 |
29 |
60 |
8 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2001 May 10-14 |
25 |
63 |
9 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2001 Apr 6-8 |
24 |
63 |
9 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2001 Mar 5-7 |
28 |
61 |
7 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2001 Feb 1-4 |
23 |
66 |
8 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2001 Jan 10-14 |
32 |
56 |
8 |
4 |
|
2000 |
||||
|
(NA) 2000 Dec 2-4 |
39 |
48 |
8 |
5 |
|
(NA) 2000 Nov 13-15 |
50 |
38 |
9 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2000 Oct 6-9 |
54 |
34 |
10 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2000 Aug 18-19 |
60 |
26 |
10 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2000 Jul 25-26 |
58 |
29 |
9 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2000 May 18-21 |
52 |
37 |
9 |
2 |
|
(NA) 2000 Jan 7-10 |
69 |
23 |
6 |
2 |
|
1999 |
||||
|
(NA) 1999 Oct 21-24 |
52 |
34 |
11 |
3 |
|
(NA) 1999 Sep 10-14 |
59 |
29 |
9 |
3 |
|
(NA) 1999 Aug 24-26 |
54 |
31 |
12 |
3 |
|
1998 |
||||
|
(NA) 1999 Jun 4-5 |
60 |
27 |
9 |
4 |
|
(NA) 1999 Jan 15-17 |
63 |
28 |
6 |
3 |
|
(NA) 1998 Dec 4-6 |
52 |
38 |
8 |
2 |
|
(NA) 1998 Oct 29-Nov 1 |
51 |
38 |
8 |
3 |
|
(NA) 1998 Sep 1 |
45 |
41 |
11 |
3 |
|
(NA) 1997 Dec 18-21 |
49 |
39 |
8 |
4 |
|
(NA) 1997 Nov 6-9 |
51 |
37 |
9 |
3 |
|
(NA) 1997 May 6-7 |
50 |
40 |
7 |
3 |
|
(NA) 1997 Jan 31-Feb 2 |
46 |
39 |
12 |
3 |
|
1996 |
||||
|
(NA) 1996 Oct 26-29 |
50 |
38 |
7 |
5 |
|
(RV) 1996 Aug 30-Sep 1 |
52 |
37 |
8 |
3 |
|
(NA) 1996 Jul 18-21 |
43 |
46 |
9 |
2 |
|
(NA) 1996 May 9-12 |
39 |
49 |
9 |
3 |
|
1992 |
||||
|
(RV) 1992 Aug 31-Sep 2 |
29 |
59 |
10 |
2 |
|
(RV) 1992 Aug 10-12 |
24 |
65 |
10 |
1 |
|
(RV) 1992 Jun 12-14 |
28 |
61 |
9 |
2 |
|
(RV) 1992 Apr 9-12 |
40 |
45 |
13 |
2 |
|
(RV) 1992 Mar 20-22 |
37 |
51 |
11 |
1 |
|
(RV) 1992 Jan 31-Feb 1 |
22 |
70 |
7 |
1 |
|
(NA) 1992 Jan 3-6 |
22 |
71 |
6 |
1 |
|
1991 |
||||
|
(NA) 1991 Dec 5-8 |
19 |
69 |
9 |
3 |
|
(NA) 1991 Sep 5-8 |
27 |
60 |
10 |
3 |
|
(NA) 1991 Jul 11-14 |
34 |
51 |
9 |
6 |
As I read some names and groups, please tell me how much confidence you have in each to do or to recommend the right thing for the economy -- a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or almost none. How about… [ITEMS A-B ROTATED, THEN ITEMS C-D ROTATED]?
A. President George W. Bush
|
Great |
Fair |
Only |
Almost none |
No |
|
|
2003 Apr 7-9 |
35% |
30 |
16 |
17 |
2 |
|
2002 Apr 8-11 |
36% |
37 |
15 |
11 |
1 |
|
2001 Apr 6-8 |
29% |
39 |
16 |
15 |
1 |
B. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan
|
Great |
Fair |
Only |
Almost none |
No |
|
|
2003 Apr 7-9 |
24% |
41 |
18 |
7 |
10 |
|
2002 Apr 8-11 |
25% |
44 |
15 |
5 |
11 |
|
2001 Apr 6-8 |
29% |
45 |
11 |
5 |
10 |
C. The Democratic leaders in Congress
|
Great |
Fair |
Only |
Almost none |
No |
|
|
2003 Apr 7-9 |
11% |
41 |
26 |
19 |
3 |
|
2002 Apr 8-11 |
11% |
45 |
26 |
13 |
5 |
|
2001 Apr 6-8 |
15% |
51 |
18 |
12 |
4 |
D. The Republican leaders in Congress
|
Great |
Fair |
Only |
Almost none |
No |
|
|
2003 Apr 7-9 |
18% |
44 |
21 |
14 |
3 |
|
2002 Apr 8-11 |
13% |
46 |
23 |
14 |
4 |
|
2001 Apr 6-8 |
15% |
51 |
18 |
12 |
4 |
* -- Less than 0.5%
