GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- With U.S. payrolls declining monthly, and the unemployment rate remaining at 6.0% or higher for the past several months, it is not surprising that Gallup's latest poll detects increased public concern about the situation. According to an Aug. 4-6 survey, the percentage of Americans naming unemployment as the "most important problem" facing the country jumped to 17% this month, up from 13% in July. This represents the highest top-of-mind concern about unemployment that Gallup has recorded since the early 1990s. (The average percentage mentioning unemployment for the past three years has been only 8%.)
Furthermore, the same August poll finds that the job market is second only to the federal budget deficit as the worst-rated aspect of the economy. Only 10% of Americans consider the employment situation "excellent" or "good," while 40% describe it as "only fair" and 49% call it "poor."
Americans remain generally pessimistic about the direction of unemployment, as they have been all year, with most saying it will worsen or remain at the current level in the near term; only 38% believe it will improve.
But whether these perceptions of the national job market translate into worker insecurity about their own jobs, or trigger a halt to Americans' retail spending more generally, is another story. Gallup data suggest neither of these is occurring.
Unemployment Gets Bad Reviews
Only 10% of Americans call the nation's employment situation "excellent" or "good," while 49% call it "poor" -- a net positive rating of -39 points. By contrast, Americans have a fairly positive impression of interest rates (+36) and the financial well-being of U.S. companies (+17). Inflation (+5), the financial well-being of average Americans (-2), and the stock market (-4) receive mediocre ratings.
How would you rate current conditions in each of the following areas related to the nation's economy --
|
|||||
Excellent |
Good |
Only fair |
Poor |
Net Positive |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Interest rates |
13 |
39 |
31 |
16 |
36 |
The financial well-being of U.S. companies |
4 |
28 |
51 |
15 |
17 |
The rate of inflation |
4 |
23 |
47 |
22 |
5 |
The financial well-being of average Americans |
1 |
23 |
49 |
26 |
-2 |
The stock market |
1 |
18 |
53 |
23 |
-4 |
The employment situation in the country |
0 |
10 |
40 |
49 |
-39 |
The federal budget deficit |
1 |
7 |
29 |
59 |
-51 |
The poll also shows that most Americans (61%) expect that the unemployment rate will remain where it is or go up over the next six months; only 38% of Americans expect it to go down. The overwhelming majority of employed adults or those looking for work, 80%, also say that now is a bad time to find a quality job. This matches the negative evaluation of job opportunities seen earlier this year, but is far worse than most of the evaluations in the previous three years.
Perceptions of Current Climate for Finding a Quality Job Among Adults Employed or Looking for Work |
Workers Still Feel Secure
To date, U.S. retail spending remains fairly strong, which helps fuel other aspects of the economy. But the concern is that public pessimism about unemployment will eventually dampen consumers' willingness to spend, and that could send the economy into another recession. This is where the distinction between general impressions and personal experiences could be important.
Despite Americans' dour analysis of unemployment nationally, the vast majority of working Americans feel secure in their own jobs. Only 19% of those currently working part or full time say they are personally worried about being laid off in the near future. A similarly low number are worried that their work hours will be reduced (15%) or that their wages will be reduced (17%).
Personal Employment Concerns Based on Adults Employed Full/Part Time |
August 4-6, 2003 |
The new poll shows a slight crack in workers' confidence: only 48% of employed Americans say they are "completely satisfied" with their job security, down from 55% a year ago at this time. The good news is that there has been little change in the percentage who are dissatisfied with their job security; rather, the percentage falling into the "somewhat satisfied" category increased slightly.
Satisfaction With Job Security Based on Adults Employed Full/Part Time |
About one in three workers (34%) has seen layoffs firsthand at work, saying that their employer has laid off employees in the past six months. But even these individuals are generally confident about their own job security. Only 29% of those who have witnessed layoffs, compared with 13% who have not, say they are personally worried about being laid off. While this may be a rational assessment -- that even in an economy of high unemployment, the majority of workers retain their jobs -- it should comfort economists who fret about the ripple effect of a bad labor market on consumer confidence.
Americans Spending More
The fact that Americans feel comfortable in their jobs appears consistent with their willingness to make purchases. Gallup's monthly measure of personal spending plans finds that Americans have been slightly more likely over the past three months to say they will increase their spending (averaging 25% saying increase). This contrasts with the previous three months' average of 21%.
For each of the following, please indicate whether -- over the next six months -- you think your level of spending will -- [ROTATED: increase a lot, increase a little, remain the same, decrease a little, (or) decrease a lot]?
Total increase |
Total decrease |
Net Increase (% Increase-% Decrease) |
|
% |
% |
||
2003 Aug 4-6 |
25 |
27 |
-2 |
2003 Jul 7-9 |
25 |
25 |
0 |
2003 Jun 12-15 |
24 |
22 |
+2 |
Average for June-August |
25 |
26 |
-1 |
2003 May 5-7 |
19 |
28 |
-9 |
2003 Apr 7-9 |
22 |
26 |
-4 |
2003 Mar 3-5 |
21 |
28 |
-7 |
Average for May-March |
21 |
27 |
-6 |
Gallup spending data conforms with national sales data that shows strong growth in consumer spending on retail and food services since June.
For now, it appears that national perceptions about unemployment still have a ways to go before they undermine workers' sense of their own job security, or rattle consumers' confidence in their personal finances.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 4-6, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
4. What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? [Open-ended]
Aug |
Jul |
Jun |
||
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS (NET) |
48 |
44 |
47 |
|
1 |
Economy in general |
26 |
27 |
30 |
2 |
Unemployment/Jobs |
17 |
13 |
12 |
3 |
Federal budget deficit/federal debt |
4 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
High cost of living/inflation |
1 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
Taxes |
1 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
Lack of money |
1 |
1 |
-- |
7 |
Corporate corruption |
1 |
* |
* |
8 |
Gap between rich and poor |
1 |
* |
1 |
9 |
Recession |
1 |
* |
-- |
Wage issues |
-- |
-- |
1 |
|
Fuel/Oil Prices |
-- |
-- |
* |
|
NON-ECONOMIC PROBLEMS (NET) |
57 |
62 |
61 |
|
No opinion |
4 |
4 |
6 |
|
Total |
132% |
130% |
136% |
7. Over the next six months, do you think that each of the following will -- [ROTATED: go up a lot, go up a little, remain the same, go down a little, (or) go down a lot]? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
E. Unemployment
|
|
|
Go down |
Go down |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
16 |
25 |
20 |
31 |
7 |
1 |
41 |
38 |
2003 Jul 7-9 |
16 |
28 |
20 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
44 |
35 |
2003 Jun 12-15 |
17 |
28 |
22 |
26 |
6 |
1 |
45 |
32 |
2003 May 5-7 |
15 |
29 |
21 |
27 |
7 |
1 |
44 |
34 |
2003 Apr 7-9 |
17 |
26 |
22 |
26 |
7 |
2 |
43 |
33 |
2003 Jan 13-16 |
19 |
29 |
16 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
48 |
35 |
2002 Nov 11-14 |
17 |
30 |
22 |
21 |
7 |
3 |
47 |
28 |
2002 Aug 5-8 |
16 |
29 |
23 |
22 |
7 |
3 |
45 |
29 |
2002 Jul 9-11 |
19 |
28 |
22 |
24 |
6 |
1 |
47 |
30 |
2002 Jun 3-6 |
14 |
32 |
22 |
25 |
5 |
2 |
46 |
30 |
2002 May 6-9 |
15 |
31 |
22 |
24 |
7 |
1 |
46 |
31 |
2002 Apr 8-11 |
19 |
28 |
20 |
25 |
7 |
1 |
47 |
32 |
2002 Mar 4-7 |
13 |
30 |
18 |
30 |
8 |
1 |
43 |
38 |
2002 Feb 4-6 |
12 |
31 |
17 |
29 |
10 |
1 |
43 |
39 |
2002 Jan 7-9 |
16 |
30 |
18 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
46 |
35 |
2001 Dec 6-9 |
18 |
30 |
17 |
24 |
10 |
1 |
48 |
34 |
2001 Nov 8-11 |
21 |
31 |
13 |
23 |
11 |
1 |
52 |
34 |
2001 Oct 11-14 |
20 |
31 |
15 |
20 |
13 |
1 |
51 |
33 |
SUMMARY TABLE: NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2003 Aug 4-6 |
Total |
Remain |
Total |
% |
% |
% |
|
Interest rates |
61 |
25 |
11 |
Inflation |
54 |
30 |
13 |
Economic Growth |
51 |
26 |
20 |
Stock Market |
49 |
21 |
25 |
Unemployment |
41 |
20 |
38 |
D15. Which of the following best describes your current situation - employed full-time, employed part-time, retired, a homemaker, a student, unemployed but looking for work, or unemployed and not looking for work?
2003 Aug 4-6 |
|
% |
|
Employed full time |
50 |
Employed part time |
7 |
Retired |
20 |
Homemaker |
9 |
Student |
5 |
Unemployed but looking for work |
6 |
Unemployed and not looking for work |
1 |
DISABLED (vol.) |
2 |
No opinion |
* |
9. Thinking about the job situation in America today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a quality job?
Good |
Bad |
No |
Good |
Bad |
No |
||||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||||
National Adults |
Employed/Unemployed but looking for work ^ |
||||||||
2003 Aug 4-6 |
17 |
81 |
2 |
2003 Aug 4-6 |
19 |
80 |
1 |
||
2003 Jul 7-9 |
20 |
78 |
2 |
2003 Jul 7-9 |
23 |
76 |
1 |
||
2003 Jun 12-15 |
22 |
76 |
2 |
2003 Jun 12-15 |
22 |
77 |
1 |
||
2003 May 5-7 |
22 |
75 |
3 |
2003 May 5-7 |
24 |
74 |
2 |
||
2003 Apr 7-9 |
23 |
75 |
2 |
2003 Apr 7-9 |
23 |
76 |
1 |
||
2003 Mar 3-5 |
16 |
81 |
3 |
2003 Mar 3-5 |
16 |
82 |
2 |
||
2003 Feb 3-6 |
19 |
79 |
2 |
2003 Feb 3-6 |
20 |
79 |
1 |
||
2003 Jan 13-16 |
20 |
78 |
2 |
2003 Jan 13-16 |
20 |
78 |
2 |
||
2002 Dec 5-8 |
19 |
78 |
3 |
2002 Dec 5-8 |
20 |
77 |
3 |
||
2002 Nov 11-14 |
27 |
69 |
4 |
2002 Nov 11-14 |
29 |
68 |
3 |
||
2002 Oct 14-17 |
23 |
70 |
7 |
2002 Oct 14-17 |
24 |
70 |
6 |
||
2002 Sep 5-8 |
22 |
74 |
4 |
2002 Sep 5-8 |
23 |
75 |
2 |
||
2002 Aug 5-8 |
27 |
68 |
5 |
2002 Aug 5-8 |
29 |
68 |
3 |
||
2002 Jul 9-11 |
26 |
69 |
5 |
2002 Jul 9-11 |
28 |
68 |
4 |
||
2002 Jun 3-6 |
32 |
64 |
4 |
2002 Jun 3-6 |
35 |
62 |
3 |
||
2002 May 6-9 |
29 |
67 |
4 |
2002 May 6-9 |
30 |
67 |
3 |
||
2002 Apr 8-11 |
29 |
68 |
3 |
2002 Apr 8-11 |
30 |
68 |
2 |
||
2002 Mar 4-7 |
26 |
72 |
2 |
2002 Mar 4-7 |
28 |
70 |
2 |
||
2002 Feb 4-6 |
25 |
72 |
3 |
2002 Feb 4-6 |
24 |
73 |
3 |
||
2002 Jan 7-9 |
24 |
73 |
3 |
2002 Jan 7-9 |
24 |
73 |
3 |
||
2001 Dec 6-9 |
25 |
73 |
2 |
2001 Dec 6-9 |
26 |
71 |
3 |
||
2001 Nov 8-11 |
22 |
75 |
3 |
2001 Nov 8-11 |
22 |
75 |
3 |
||
2001 Oct 11-14 |
25 |
71 |
4 |
2001 Oct 11-14 |
26 |
71 |
3 |
||
2001 Aug 16-19 |
39 |
56 |
5 |
2001 Aug 16-19 |
38 |
59 |
3 |
||
2000 Aug 4-31 † |
78 |
16 |
6 |
||||||
2000 Jan 5-19 † |
76 |
19 |
5 |
||||||
1999 Feb 5-22 † |
70 |
24 |
6 |
||||||
1998 Aug 5-16 † |
69 |
25 |
6 |
||||||
^ |
BASED ON --640-- EMPLOYED ADULTS OR UNEMPLOYED ADULTS WHO ARE LOOKING FOR WORK |
||||||||
† |
Center for Survey Research & Analysis, Univ. of Connecticut & John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers Univ. |
10. Next, how would you rate current conditions in each of the following areas related to the nation's economy -- as excellent, good, only fair, or poor? [RANDOM ORDER]
A. The employment situation in the country
Excellent |
Good |
Only fair |
Poor |
No opinion |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
* |
10% |
40 |
49 |
1 |
B. The stock market
Excellent |
Good |
Only fair |
Poor |
No opinion |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
1% |
18 |
53 |
23 |
5 |
C. The financial well-being of U.S. companies
Excellent |
Good |
Only fair |
Poor |
No opinion |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
4% |
28 |
51 |
15 |
2 |
D. The financial well-being of average Americans
Excellent |
Good |
Only fair |
Poor |
No opinion |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
1% |
23 |
49 |
26 |
1 |
E. The federal budget deficit
Excellent |
Good |
Only fair |
Poor |
No opinion |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
1% |
7 |
29 |
59 |
4 |
F. The rate of inflation
Excellent |
Good |
Only fair |
Poor |
No opinion |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
4% |
23 |
47 |
22 |
4 |
G. Interest rates
Excellent |
Good |
Only fair |
Poor |
No opinion |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
13% |
39 |
31 |
16 |
1 |
18. As far as you know, in the past six months, has your employer laid off any employees, or not?
BASED ON --588-- ADULTS EMPLOYED FULL OR PART-TIME
Yes, has |
No, has not |
No opinion |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
34% |
64 |
2 |
21. Now I'll read a list of job characteristics. For each, please tell me how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with your current job in this regard. First, are you completely satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or completely dissatisfied with [RANDOM ORDER]?
BASED ON --588-- ADULTS EMPLOYED FULL OR PART-TIME
A. Your job security
Completely satisfied |
Somewhat satisfied |
Somewhat dissatisfied |
Completely dissatisfied |
No |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
48 |
35 |
7 |
8 |
2 |
2002 Aug 5-8 |
55 |
30 |
7 |
7 |
1 |
2001 Aug 16-19 |
54 |
30 |
8 |
7 |
1 |
1999 Aug 24-26 |
48 |
33 |
11 |
7 |
1 |
1998 Oct |
52 |
35 |
6 |
6 |
1 |
1993 May 10-12 |
46 |
33 |
9 |
11 |
1 |
1991 Jul 25-28 |
35 |
44 |
12 |
7 |
2 |
1989 Jul 18-21 |
45 |
42 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
22. Next, please indicate whether you are worried or not worried about each of the following happening to you, personally, in the near future. How about - [ITEMS A-D ROTATED, ITEM E READ LAST]?
BASED ON --588-- ADULTS EMPLOYED FULL OR PART-TIME
A. That you will be laid off
Worried |
Not worried |
No opinion |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
19% |
81 |
* |
1997 Aug 22-24 |
20% |
80 |
-- |
B. That your hours at work will be cut back
Worried |
Not worried |
No opinion |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
15% |
84 |
1 |
1997 Aug 22-24 |
15% |
85 |
-- |
C. That your wages will be reduced
Worried |
Not worried |
No opinion |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
17% |
82 |
1 |
1997 Aug 22-24 |
17% |
83 |
-- |
D. That your benefits will be reduced
Worried |
Not worried |
No opinion |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
31% |
67 |
2 |
1997 Aug 22-24 |
34% |
66 |
-- |
E. That your company will move jobs to countries overseas
Worried |
Not worried |
No opinion |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
9% |
89 |
2 |
SUMMARY TABLE: EMPLOYMENT CONCERNS
2003 Aug 4-6 (sorted by "worried") |
|
|
% |
% |
|
That your benefits will be reduced |
31 |
67 |
That you will be laid off |
19 |
81 |
That your wages will be reduced |
17 |
82 |
That your hours at work will be cut back |
15 |
84 |
That your company will move jobs to countries overseas |
9 |
89 |