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Christmas Spending Plans Up Slightly From Mid-November 2002

Christmas Spending Plans Up Slightly From Mid-November 2002

Average American plans to spend $734 on Christmas gifts this year

by Joseph Carroll

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The U.S. economy grew at a remarkable 7.2% annual rate in the third quarter this year, significantly higher than the 3.3% growth in the second quarter and higher than analysts' expectations. But does this mean Americans will be rushing out to the stores and spending more money on Christmas gifts this holiday season?

A new Gallup Poll, conducted Nov. 10-12, finds the public planning to spend an average of $734 on gifts this season. That is a slightly higher estimate than the $690 that Gallup recorded at approximately the same time a year ago. This is also the first time in three years that Gallup has found an increase in Americans' Christmas spending intentions in mid-November. These findings suggest at least the possibility of a better retail season than last year.

At the same time, the figure is lower than Americans' spending intentions at comparable times in 1999 and 2000 -- meaning it doesn't appear, based on these data, that this holiday season is going to be a blockbuster for retailers and return to the robust times of the recent boom.

One cautionary note: Americans' spending intentions change as the holiday season progresses and presumably as they actually begin to buy holiday gifts. Last year, Americans' spending estimates rose from $690 in early November, to $753 in late November. Gallup will continue to measure these spending projections in the weeks ahead to see if this same pattern occurs this year. If Americans do not project a higher level of spending in the next few weeks, then retailers may not see much improvement over the 2002 season.

Current Christmas Spending Plans Higher Than Mid-November 2002

The recent poll asked Americans how much money they personally plan to spend on Christmas gifts this year. Thirty percent of adults say they will spend $1,000 or more on gifts, while 25% plan to spend between $500 and $1,000, and 35% plan to spend less than $500. The mean, as noted, is $734.

The most relevant comparison is between this year's current (Nov. 10-12) estimate, and the estimate obtained in last year's Nov. 11-14 poll. It shows that the average American plans to spend $44 more on Christmas gifts this year compared with last year ($690 in a Nov. 11-14 poll vs. the current $734). If this pattern holds, this Christmas shopping season is shaping up to be a bit better than 2002.

Gallup's 1999 poll found the average respondent said he or she would spend $857 on Christmas gifts, while in 2000, average Christmas spending expectations dropped to $817.

Roughly how much money do you think you personally will spend on Christmas gifts this year?
Based on mean (including zero)

The poll also asked Americans if the amount of money they will spend this year will be more, less, or the same amount as last year. Fourteen percent of Americans say they will spend more than last year, while 23% say they will spend less. Roughly 6 in 10 Americans, 61%, say they will spend about the same amount on gifts. These results are slightly more positive than those obtained last year at this time. The net-spending intentions figure this year is a negative differential of nine points (the difference between the 23% who will spend less and the 14% who will spend more). Last year at this time, the net-spending intentions figure was a negative differential of 15 points.

Is that more, less, or about the same amount as you spent last Christmas?

Will Men or Women Spend More on Christmas Presents This Holiday Season?

On average, men estimate they will spend more than women do on Christmas gifts -- $780 vs. $693, respectively. At this time last year, in Gallup's Nov. 11-14 poll, the difference between men and women was much larger, with men reporting an average of $799 and women an average of $592. This gender gap closed substantially by the end of November last year, as women reported higher levels of spending, with an average of $769 for men in the Nov. 22-24 poll and an average of $738 for women.

Compared with last year, women are planning to spend roughly $100 more this year. Men's estimates, on the other hand, are slightly lower than those at the same time last year.

Average Amount of Money Spent on Christmas Present by Gender
(Based on mean value including none)

Mid-
November
2002

Mid-
November
2003



Change

Men

$799

$780

-19

Women

$592

$693

+101



Younger Americans, Older Americans Spend Least on Christmas Gifts

Americans aged 65 and older plan to spend much less on Christmas gifts than people in any other age group do. The average 18- to 29-year-old plans to spend $677 on Christmas presents this year, compared with $817 for 30- to 49-year-olds, $775 for 50- to 64-year olds, and just $544 for people aged 65 and older. These differences most probably reflect differences in family composition, including in particular the presence of children in the household.

More specifically:

  • Younger Americans report the greatest increase in Christmas spending plans compared with Gallup's mid-November survey in 2002 -- an average increase of $108.
  • Adults aged 50 to 64 also report an increase in expected spending, from $680 in mid-November 2002, to $775 in the most recent survey.
  • People aged 30 to 49 most likely plan to spend greater sums of money on gifts than those in other age groups do because young children are present in the home. Recent polling shows that 65% of 30- to 49-year-olds have children living in the house, compared with 27% of 18- to 29-year-olds, 13% of 50- to 64-year-olds, and just 1% of people 65 and older.

Average Amount of Money Spent on Christmas Present by Age
(Based on mean value including none)

Mid-
November
2002

Mid-
November
2003



Change

18- to 29-year-olds

$569

$677

+108

30- to 49-year-olds

$814

$817

+3

50- to 64-year-olds

$680

$775

+95

65 years and older

$560

$544

-16

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,004 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Nov. 10-12, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Roughly how much money do you think you personally will spend on Christmas gifts this year?

$1,000
or
more


$500-
$999


$250-
$499


$100-
$249


Under
$100


No
opinion


Median

Mean
(w/
zero)

Mean
(w/o
zero)

%

%

%

%

%

%

2003 Nov 10-12

30

25

18

14

3

10

$500

$734

$773

2002 Nov 22-24

30

30

15

15

3

7

$500

$753

$769

2002 Nov 11-14

25

27

18

14

3

13

$500

$690

$743

2002 Oct 14-17

25

26

16

14

2

17

$500

$695

$745

2001 Nov 26-27

32

30

15

13

2

9

$500

$794

$820

2000 Nov 13-15

33

28

15

13

2

9

$500

$817

$847

1999 Nov 18-21

35

27

14

13

6

5

$500

$857

$893

1998 Dec 4-6

24

25

22

14

8

7

--

--

--

1994 Dec 2-5

22

20

23

19

9

7

--

--

--

1993 Dec 4-6

19

27

20

17

8

9

--

--

--

1992 Dec 12-18

19

24

20

18

10

9

--

--

--

1991 Dec 12-15

20

24

22

19

7

8

--

--

--

1990 Nov 29-Dec 2

17

25

23

19

7

9

--

--

--

1989 Oct 12-15

18

23

25

15

4

15

--

--

--

Is that more, less, or about the same amount as you spent last Christmas?


More


Less

About
the same

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

2003 Nov 10-12

14

23

61

2

2002 Nov 22-24

19

24

56

1

2002 Nov 11-14

12

27

59

2

2002 Oct 14-17

12

22

64

2

2000 Nov 13-15

17

18

64

1

1999 Nov 18-21

19

20

61

*

1998 Dec 4-6

19

21

60

*

1994 Dec 2-5

18

20

62

0

1993 Dec 4-6

20

27

53

*

1992 Dec 18-20

22

28

50

*

1991 Dec 12-15

16

33

43

8

1990 Nov 29-Dec 2

15

26

57

2


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/9748/Christmas-Spending-Plans-Slightly-From-MidNovember-2002.aspx
Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A
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