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Senior Citizens Wary of New Medicare Bill

Senior Citizens Wary of New Medicare Bill

Most believe bill will help drug companies more than Medicare recipients

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President Bush is extolling the virtues of the new Medicare legislation he signed into law on Monday, saying that it represents a "victory for all of America's seniors." But new polling shows that the nation's seniors are very sensitive to changes in Medicare, and are quite wary of the implications of the new law's sweeping provisions. Although a slight plurality of those 65 and older approve of the prescription drug benefits portion of the legislation, there is more opposition than support for the broader changes in Medicare that the law will bring about. Few senior citizens believe that the Medicare plan will help them financially, and a majority feels that the plan does not go far enough to help them cope with drug costs.

Two Aspects of New Legislation

The new legislation creates a prescription drug benefit for the first time in Medicare's history, and in the process, brings about the largest expansion of Medicare ever. The cost will be at least $400 billion.

In essence, this money will flow from the government into the pockets of the senior citizens who are now paying for at least some of their drug benefits themselves. This is not an insignificant expense for many older Americans. Recent Gallup polling shows that a sizable proportion of the American adult population aged 50 and older, 73%, uses prescription drugs, including 84% of those 65 and older. Despite the fact that many seniors have private drug coverage, the average person 65 and older who uses prescription drugs pays out-of-pocket costs of $137 a month for drugs, or $1,644 a year.

Polling conducted earlier this year has shown that, regardless of age, Americans support the general idea of a prescription drug benefit. A June Gallup Poll, for example, showed 76% support for a bill that would "spend $400 billion over the next 10 years to create a new Medicare program that would help senior citizens pay for prescription drugs." Seniors and younger Americans were just as likely to approve. Other polls have shown similar results.

But these polls were conducted before the specifics of the current law were finalized and passed in the Senate last week. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted this past weekend, Dec. 5-7, shows much more subdued support for the particular bill than for the general proposal to cover prescription drugs under Medicare.

The poll described the legislation as follows: "As you may know, there is a new Medicare bill that deals with prescription drug benefits for senior citizens and changes the way Medicare will cover the medical expenses of some senior citizens." After this introduction, respondents were asked whether they favored or opposed two aspects of the bill, with the following results:

 

The New Prescription Drug Benefit for Medicare Recipients

Favor,
strongly

Favor,
not
strongly

Oppose,
not
strongly

Oppose,
strongly

No
opinion

National Adults

33%

19

12

18

18

Aged 65 and older

30%

16

11

28

15



 

The Changes Made in Medicare Coverage

Favor,
strongly

Favor,
not
strongly

Oppose,
not
strongly

Oppose,
strongly

No
opinion

National Adults

24

20

15

19

22

Aged 65 and older

24

14

14

30

18



A slim plurality of senior citizens favors the prescription drug portion of the bill, by a 46% to 39% margin. But more seniors oppose than support "changes made in Medicare coverage," by a 44% to 38% margin.

Following Closely, but Worried About Its Complexities

Senior citizens are clearly interested in the new legislation and have been following news accounts of its passage. The Dec. 5-7 poll shows that 73% of those 65 and older have read or heard at least a moderate amount about the new bill -- much higher than the percentage of those under age 65 who have been paying attention. Additionally, when asked about the AARP's position on the bill, a quite high 61% of seniors recall that AARP supported the plan (which is correct), while only 10% made the incorrect guess that AARP had opposed it.

These findings suggest that the senior population is relatively well informed on the law in general. The drop in support for the legislation (in comparison with the greater support for the general concept of a prescription drug benefit covered by Medicare) thus probably reflects seniors' concerns about some of the specific provisions of this legislation.

At the same time, it is also clear that realistic opinions about the actual, real-world impact of the legislation may not be available for years. Most of the provisions of the legislation won't take effect until 2006, and it may take until that point in time for those affected to grasp what it really will mean for them.

The bill is exceedingly complex (678 pages long), involving a complicated mix of deductibles, exclusions, and amounts above which and below which drug costs won't be reimbursed. The new law also makes numerous changes to Medicare, above and beyond the new prescription drug benefit. (All of this provides a reason why our weekend poll shows that 49% of those 65 and older are very concerned that the bill will be too complicated for Medicare recipients to understand.)

It does appear from the weekend poll (and from earlier polling) that there is a significant wariness on the part of older Americans to the idea of tinkering with the basics of a Medicare system with which they are fairly happy. Previous polling has shown that seniors are significantly less likely than those under 65 to feel that Medicare needs a major overhaul, and there is a pre-existing sentiment that whatever changes might be made to Medicare would do as much to harm the system as make it better.

The current data also show -- whether based on accurate assessments or assumptions about the impact of the new law -- that there is an apparently deeply held feeling on the part of senior citizens that the legislation will not go far enough to help them pay for their prescription drugs.

 

Thinking about how the Medicare plan will affect the amount of money you, personally, spend for prescriptions, do you think the plan will – [ROTATED: help you, not have much effect, or will it hurt you]?

BASED ON –252—ADULTS AGE 65 AND OLDER


Help

Not much
effect


Hurt

No
opinion

2003 Dec 5-7

15%

58

21

6



 

Which concerns you more? That the plan – [ROTATED: will cost the government too much in the long run, (or that the plan) will not go far enough to help seniors pay for their prescriptions]?

Cost too
much

Not go far
enough

No
opinion

2003 Dec 5-7

National adults

22%

75

3

Aged 65 and older

20%

73

7



These two questions make it clear that Americans 65 and older are not at all convinced that the bill will benefit them financially, and are overwhelmingly concerned that the government plan won't go far enough to help them.

These findings are borne out by the results of a question sequence that asks seniors to indicate how concerned they are about each of a list of five possible consequences of the new legislation:

 

Concern About Consequences of New Medicare Legislation
65 and Older Only


2003 Dec 5-7
(sorted by "very concerned")


Very
concerned


Somewhat
concerned

Not too/
Not at all
concerned

%

%

%

Benefit prescription drug companies too much

58

20

15

Not go far enough to help seniors pay for their prescriptions

56

29

10

Be too complicated for Medicare recipients to understand

49

35

15

Force some Medicare recipients into HMOs

48

25

21

Cost the government too much in the long run

30

33

33



The top two concerns: 1) the bill will skew too far in helping drug companies, and 2) the bill won't go far enough in helping seniors pay for their drugs.

Indeed, a separate question gave respondents a choice between a suggestion that the new plan will be more likely to benefit the people who receive Medicare or more likely to benefit the drug companies, and found that seniors opt for the latter by a 2-to-1 margin.

 

Based on what you have heard or read about the new Medicare plan, do you think it will do more to – [ROTATED: benefit people who receive Medicare (or do more to) benefit prescription drug companies]?

People who receive
Medicare

Prescription drug
companies

No
opinion

2003 Dec 5-7

National Adults

36%

50

14

Aged 65 and older

28%

59

13



Political Consequences

Whatever the long-term consequences of the new Medicare law, will it have a positive, short-term political payoff for Bush and the Republicans in the coming election year?

Some observers argue, not unrealistically, that Bush and the Republican leadership in Congress pushed the bill for obvious political purposes, given that seniors constitute a critically important voting bloc.

So far, we don't see a major political benefit for Bush or the Republicans. Bush's overall job approval ratings for "prescription drugs for older Americans" and "Medicare" are at only 40% and 39%, respectively, far below his overall job approval rating.

 

Approve or Disapprove of President Bush's Handling of Medicare and Prescription Drugs

Medicare

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Dec 5-7

39

49

12

2003 Aug 25-26

40

48

12

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

44

41

15

Prescription Drugs for Older Americans

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Dec 5-7

40

47

13

2001 Jul 10-11

52

28

20



Additionally, seniors are no more likely to approve of how the Republicans in Congress handled the Medicare bill than they are to approve of how the Democrats handled it.

 

Do you approve or disapprove of the way each of the following handled the Medicare bill?

The Democrats in Congress

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

2003 Dec 5-7

National Adults

31%

45

24

Aged 65 and older

30%

53

17

The Republicans in Congress

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

2003 Dec 5-7

National Adults

32%

45

23

Aged 65 and older

33%

51

16



Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,083 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 5-7, 2003, including an oversample of 252 Americans age 65 and older, consisting of 173 done as part of the random national sample and 79 interviews with Americans age 65 and older who had previously participated in national Gallup Polls in 2003 and who agreed to be re-contacted by Gallup for future polls. The combined data from the national sample and oversample are combined and weighted to be demographically representative of the national adult population in the United States and to reflect the proportion of Americans 65 and older in the overall population.

For results based on the sample of 252 adults aged 65 and older, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±8 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 540 adults aged 50 and older, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/9883/Senior-Citizens-Wary-New-Medicare-Bill.aspx
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