National security and the situation in Iraq have drowned out most other campaign issues in the run-up to Election Day. But concern about the economy is still simmering and is likely to heat up once the election frenzy winds down, particularly given that third-quarter GDP growth was below economists' forecasts.
Data from a recent Gallup Poll* show that as far as the economy is concerned, beyond general mentions of the economy, the specific aspect that Americans worry about most is unemployment. As the market eagerly anticipates this Friday's October unemployment report, our data indicate that from the American public's point of view, the employment outlook is not improving. The public is divided about the outlook for job growth over the next six months, and most Americans believe that now is a bad time to find a quality job.
The Most Important Economic Problem
Every month, Gallup asks Americans what they believe to be the most important problem facing the country. Over the last six months, an average of roughly 4 in 10 have referenced some type of economic issue in response to this question. In mid-October, 21% of respondents mention the economy in general, but a significant number -- 12% -- say more specifically that unemployment/jobs is the biggest problem facing the nation. Three percent of Americans are most concerned with the deficit and another 2% mention high energy prices.
The October poll reflects a change for the worse in public opinion on job search conditions. More than two-thirds (68%) of Americans who are employed or unemployed but looking for work believe that now is a bad time to find a quality job, up from 60% in September.
From a broader perspective, these numbers are consistent with recent history. In August 2000, circumstances could not have been better for job seekers -- 78% of Americans who were employed or unemployed and looking for work felt it was a good time to find a job -- according to a poll conducted by the University of Connecticut and Rutgers University**. That sentiment fizzled rapidly in the afterglow of the roaring 1990s. By the end of the recession in November 2001, Gallup found 75% of Americans saying it was a bad time to find a job. For the most part, opinion on the subject has remained consistently negative for the past three years, with at least 60% of those in the U.S. workforce characterizing the job search climate as poor.
And the near future? It's probably tough for many people to predict just prior to a close election. Public opinion about where unemployment will go over the next six months is split into three camps, with roughly a third of Americans (35%) expressing the view that unemployment will increase over this period, (29%) saying that it will remain the same, and another third (35%) who believe that the unemployment rate will decrease over the next six months.
Bottom Line
Economists and politicians have invoked many explanations for the recent lackluster unemployment numbers -- from hurricanes, to the outsourcing of jobs, to the uncertainty over the outcome of the presidential contest. By the time the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its employment situation report Friday, we will likely know with which party economic stewardship will lie for the next four years. The time will have come to make good on one of many promises made during this long season of campaign rhetoric.
*Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,012 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 11-14, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 640 adults employed full or part-time or unemployed adults looking for work, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
**Survey by CSRA at the University of Connecticut and the Heldrich Center at Rutgers University. Methodology: Conducted by Center for Survey Research and Analysis, University of Connecticut, Aug. 4-Aug. 31, 2000, and based on telephone interviews with a national employed adult sample of 1,005. The survey was a joint project of the Center for Survey Research and Analysis at the University of Connecticut and the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University. The sample includes those employed full or part time and those unemployed looking for work.
