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Gun Owners and the 2008 General Election

Gun Owners and the 2008 General Election

Giuliani viewed most positively, Clinton most negatively

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- An earlier Gallup analysis (See Related Items) showed that Rudy Giuliani does not fare as well among Republican gun owners as among non-owners in terms of their 2008 presidential nomination preferences. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton does just as well among gun owners as among non-owners. But in a general election context, things might look differently for the candidates among this powerful political group. Among all U.S. gun owners, Giuliani is rated more favorably than any other presidential candidate, while Clinton is rated the most negatively. Gun owners, more of whom identify themselves as Republicans than Democrats, generally rate the Republican candidates more favorably than the Democratic ones.

In two polls conducted this month, Gallup measured Americans' opinions of the leading candidates and asked respondents whether they owned any type of gun. The results presented here are based on interviews with more than 2,000 Americans, including 670 gun owners.

Opinions of Leading Candidates

Among the leading presidential candidates of both parties, gun owners rate Giuliani most positively, both in terms of his overall favorable rating of 66% and his net favorable rating (percentage favorable minus percentage unfavorable) of +43. Gun owners' Republican leanings are clear in that they give the top four Republican candidates higher net favorable ratings than the top four Democratic candidates, though Mitt Romney (+12) and Barack Obama (+10) are about even on this measure. Among the Democrats, in addition to Obama, gun owners are slightly more likely to view John Edwards positively than negatively. Gun owners have, on balance, negative opinions of Al Gore (-15) and Clinton (-22). In fact, a majority of gun owners nationwide view these last two Democrats negatively.

Opinions of 2008 Presidential Candidates Among Gun Owners


 

Favor-
able

Unfavor-
able

No
opinion

Net
favorable

%

%

%

pct. pts.

Rudy Giuliani

66

23

11

+43

John McCain

56

31

13

+25

Fred Thompson

34

12

54

+22

Mitt Romney

33

21

46

+12

Barack Obama

45

35

20

+10

John Edwards

45

39

16

+6

Al Gore

40

55

5

-15

Hillary Clinton

38

60

2

-22

The ratings of the candidates by Americans who do not own guns are in some cases quite different when compared with gun owners' ratings. Both Clinton and Gore are well into positive territory among gun non-owners, with net favorable ratings of +27 and +19, respectively. Obama, Edwards, and Giuliani have the highest net favorable ratings among non-owners, and non-owners are generally more positive toward the Democratic candidates than the Republicans. John McCain is the only candidate whom gun owners and non-owners rate similarly. The greatest disparities in ratings are for Clinton and Gore.

Net Favorable Ratings,
 by Gun Ownership


 

All
Americans

Gun
owners

Non-
owners

pct. pts.

pct. pts.

pct. pts.

Rudy Giuliani

+37

+43

+34

John McCain

+24

+25

+23

Fred Thompson

+16

+22

+12

Mitt Romney

+4

+12

0

Barack Obama

+31

+10

+41

John Edwards

+25

+6

+35

Al Gore

+13

-15

+27

Hillary Clinton

+5

-22

+19

In the general election context, Giuliani currently appears to be most strongly positioned among gun owners given his high favorability ratings, while Clinton would appear to be in the weakest position. Approximately one in three Americans own a gun, so although the group does not include most voters, it certainly constitutes a substantial part of the electorate.

Thus, based on this and the previous analysis, the political impact of gun ownership may shift over the course of the 2008 campaign. In the Democratic primaries, gun owners seem just as inclined as non-owners to support Clinton. On the Republican side, Giuliani's standing is somewhat weaker among Republican gun owners than non-owners. But in the general election setting, when the views of all Americans matter -- not just those of supporters from each candidate's party -- gun ownership seems to be a positive force for Giuliani and a significant negative force for Clinton.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 2,013 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 4-6 and May 10-13, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 670 gun owners have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±4 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 1,314 gun non-owners have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 856 Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±4 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 980 Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±4 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 368 Republicans and Republican leaners who own a gun have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 468 Republicans and Republican leaners who do not own a gun have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 247 Democrats and Democratic leaners who own a gun have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±7 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 729 Democrats and Democratic leaners who do not own a gun have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/27652/Gun-Owners-2008-General-Election.aspx
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