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The Best and Worst Aspects of a Possible Giuliani Presidency

The Best and Worst Aspects of a Possible Giuliani Presidency

Sept. 11 legacy evident in public's views of former New York City mayor

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Although a substantial percentage of Americans don't know enough about Rudy Giuliani to be able to predict what would be the best and worst aspects of his potential presidency, the views expressed by those who do have an opinion indicate that prospective voters have a firmly etched image about the former New York City mayor in their minds.

Americans with an opinion about Giuliani clearly perceive that the strengths of his presidency would be similar to the type of leadership he showed after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks: his ability to handle terrorism, his strong leadership, his decisiveness, and his ability to perform in a crisis. On the other hand, the perceived liabilities of a Giuliani presidency appear to group into three categories: his political inexperience at the national level; his ideological positions on issues -- including complaints that he would be both too conservative and too liberal; and questions about his personal traits, including his morality and personal style. Members of the Republican Party -- Giuliani's own party -- in particular express concerns about his perceived liberal views and personal morality.

Best Thing About a Giuliani Presidency

A July 23-26, 2007, Gallup Poll panel survey asked a nationally representative sample to name "the best or most positive thing about a Rudy Giuliani presidency." (A similar question was asked in June about a prospective Hillary Clinton presidency; see Related Items).

Next, suppose Rudy Giuliani is elected president in 2008. In your view, what would be the best or most positive thing about a Rudy Giuliani presidency? [Anything else?] [OPEN-ENDED]

2007 Jul 23-26

%

Good on terrorism/security/Handling of Sept. 11

15

Strong leader

7

Decisive/Takes charge/Gets things done

5

Likeable/People like him

5

Good on the economy/Fiscal conservative

4

Good in a crisis

3

Did a good job for New York City

3

Middle of the road/Moderate

3

Good communicator/Good with the public

3

A Republican

2

Would bring change/Fresh outlook

2

Good on crime

2

Experience (general)

2

Conservative

1

Intelligent

1

Pro-choice

1

 

Other

6

 

Nothing (vol.)

20

No opinion

27

Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses

Almost half of those interviewed were unable to give a response to this question. Recent Gallup Poll research shows that Giuliani's name identification is high; 84% of Americans have a basic favorable or unfavorable opinion of him. This suggests that a substantial percentage of Americans who know enough about Giuliani to give an overall opinion about him still have not reached the point where they are able to talk about the implications of a Giuliani presidency.

The predictions about the positive elements of a possible Giuliani presidency are focused more than anything else on dimensions related to his highly visible role as mayor of New York City during and after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. The top three specific categories of responses, mentioned by more than one-quarter of Americans, are that Giuliani would be good in terms of handling terrorism, that he would be a strong leader, and that he would be decisive and would be able to get things done.

A small percentage of respondents say that the best thing about a Giuliani presidency would be that he is "good on crime," a presumed legacy of his days as a prosecutor and New York City mayor.

There are more general references to the fact that he is "likable," that he would be good on the economy, that he is middle of the road, is a good communicator, and is a Republican.

In general, however, the predominant views regarding the positive aspects of a possible Giuliani presidency at this point are a fairly specific direct legacy of the reputation he built in the weeks following 9/11.

Worst Thing About a Giuliani Presidency

Gallup also asked respondents to indicate what would be the worst or most negative thing about a Rudy Giuliani presidency.

And, what would be the worst or most negative thing about a Rudy Giuliani presidency? [Anything else?] [OPEN-ENDED]

2007 Jul 23-26

%

Inexperienced/Lacks proper experience to be president

15

Marital problems/Affairs/Divorces/Questionable moral judgment

7

Another Republican

7

Pro-choice on abortion

5

Too liberal/Too moderate/Not conservative enough

5

Would continue Bush policies (non-specific)

4

Would continue war in Iraq

3

Dishonest/Untrustworthy

3

Lack of foreign policy experience

3

Authoritarian methods in dealing with crime, etc.

3

Too conservative

2

Abrasive/Temperamental/Stubborn

2

Divisive/Polarizing

2

He's from New York

1

Supports gay rights

1

Pro-gun control

1

 

Other

5

 

Nothing (vol.)

8

No opinion

31

Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses

Of interest is the fact that more Americans were able to answer this negatively oriented question than were able to answer the question about the positives of a Giuliani presidency. Since Gallup Poll data show that Giuliani's overall image is positive (52% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani, compared with 32% who have an unfavorable opinion), it would not appear that this opinion arises from an overall negative image of him.

The most frequently occurring specific category of responses to this "worst thing" question is an indication that Giuliani is inexperienced -- and that he lacks foreign policy experience in particular.

A second broad category of responses deals with issues relating to Giuliani's perceived liberalness: that he is pro-choice on abortion, that he is too liberal or not conservative enough, and that he has supported gay rights. A smaller number of respondents, on the other hand, complain that Giuliani is too conservative, would continue Bush administration policies, would continue the war in Iraq, and that he is pro-gun control.

A third category of responses deals with Giuliani's personal characteristics. The most frequent response in this category is a reference to his moral failings as exemplified by the circumstances surrounding his three marriages. Additionally, some respondents mention their perceptions that Giuliani is dishonest, authoritarian, abrasive, and divisive.

In general, the public's concerns about a possible Giuliani presidency seem to coalesce three themes: his inexperience, his ideological positioning, and his personal characteristics.

Partisan Differences

Not surprisingly, Republicans are more likely to answer the question about the positive aspects of a possible Giuliani presidency than are independents or Democrats. Still, 36% of Republicans have no response when asked to name what would be the most positive thing about a Giuliani presidency, suggesting that he is still not as well-positioned among members of his own party as might be optimal for a presidential candidate. By comparison, the analysis of results from Gallup's June survey showed that only 19% of Democrats could not mention anything positive about a Hillary Clinton presidency.

Although there are differences in the exact percentages of the responses given, all three partisan groups are most likely to mention Giuliani's strength in dealing with terrorism as the best or most positive thing about his prospective presidency.

What Would be the Best or Most Positive Thing
About a
Rudy Giuliani Presidency?

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

%

%

%

Good on terrorism/security

18

14

14

Strong leader

11

7

4

Decisive/takes charge/gets things done

8

6

2

Likeable

6

5

5

Good on economy/fiscal conservative

5

3

4

Good in a crisis

4

3

3

Good job for NY City

3

4

4

Middle of the road/moderate

2

5

2

Good communicator

3

2

3

A Republican

6

1

*

Change/fresh outlook

1

3

3

Good on crime

4

1

*

Experience

2

1

2

Conservative

2

1

*

Intelligent/smart man

1

1

1

Pro-choice

*

1

1

Not Hillary

1

*

-

 

 

 

Other

5

3

6

Nothing (vol.)

12

21

25

Don't know/refused

24

28

30

* Less than 0.5%

Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses

Democrats are slightly more likely than independents and Republicans to answer this "worst things" question, but not by a large margin. Forty-three percent of Republicans don't have anything to say about the negatives of a Giuliani presidency, compared with 38% of both independents and Democrats.

What Would Be the Worst or Most Negative Thing about a Rudy Giuliani Presidency?

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

%

%

%

Inexperienced/lack proper
experience to be president

12

18

15

Marital problems/divorce/
questionable morals

8

8

6

Another Republican

1

5

13

Pro-choice

12

3

1

Too liberal/too moderate/
not conservative enough

10

3

2

Would continue Bush policies/course

*

5

6

Would continue war in Iraq

2

2

6

Dishonest/untrustworthy

2

4

3

Lack of foreign policy experience

3

3

3

Authoritarian methods with crime

1

2

4

Too conservative

1

3

2

Abrasive/temperamental/

stubborn

2

2

2

Divisive/polarizing

1

2

2

From New York

1

2

-

Supports gay rights/marriage

2

1

1

Pro-gun/anti-second amendment

1

1

-

 

 

 

Other

2

5

7

Nothing (vol.)

13

7

6

Everything (vol.)

*

*

-

Don't know/refused

30

31

32

* Less than 0.5%

Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses

The patterns of response are more differentiated by party on this negative side of the ledger than was the case for the responses to the "best things" question.

Republicans' top four categories of responses to the question about the worst aspects of a Giuliani presidency are:

1. He is too inexperienced

2. He is pro-choice on abortion

3. He is too liberal; not conservative enough

4. His questionable morals and marital history

These responses put some "flesh on the bones" of the often-mentioned observation that some Republicans will be resistant to nominating Giuliani because of his more liberal values and positions and his troubled marital past.

Democrats' top complaints about Giuliani are:

1. He is too inexperienced

2. He would be another Republican in the White House

3. His questionable morals and marital history

4. He would continue Bush administration policies

5. He would continue the war in Iraq

For obvious reasons, Democrats are not concerned about Giuliani's liberal positions, but instead focus on his conservative positions as a Republican who would continue Bush administration policies, particularly those relating to the war in Iraq.

In short, a Rudy Giuliani presidency would cut both ways. He would be too liberal for some Republicans, while too conservative for many Democrats.

Survey Methods

Results for this panel study are based on telephone interviews with 1,011 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 23-26, 2007. Respondents were drawn from Gallup's household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. The final sample is weighted so it is representative of U.S. adults nationwide. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/28291/Best-Worst-Aspects-Possible-Giuliani-Presidency.aspx
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