Clinton Leads Obama Among Whites, Blacks, and Most Other Democratic Subgroups

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Not only does Hillary Clinton rank first among the leading candidates for the 2008 Democratic nomination in Gallup's national polling, according to data from an aggregated sample of over 3,000 interviews with Democrats conducted by Gallup since March, she monopolizes the position at the subgroup level among men, women, whites, blacks, young adults, and seniors. She also leads regardless of Democrats' religious affiliation and political ideology.

Barack Obama is in the unique position of a former state politician on the national stage for less than three years running against what amounts to a Democratic institution in Hillary Clinton. Obama does well among blacks, but more importantly for his candidacy, he also does well among non-blacks. He has galvanized significant Democratic support around his candidacy across a broad spectrum of the party, in a very short period of time. Perhaps because of Bill Clinton's positive reputation in the black community and Hillary Clinton's own prominence in the party, Clinton also garners a significant share of the black vote. The net result is that Obama trails Clinton among blacks, but by only 8 points, compared to a 14-point deficit for his candidacy among whites.

Clinton's widest leads over Obama are with women, seniors, those living in low- and middle-income households, and the non-college educated. Obama performs best with high socioeconomic groups and among those with more independent leanings, including young Democrats. 

Only with "Democrats" who aren't really Democrats, but independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, as well as with college educated and upper-income Democrats, is Clinton's current hegemony challenged (though not usurped). Among these groups, Obama roughly ties with Clinton as the preferred candidate.

Beyond these patterns, Clinton's widest leads over Obama are with women, seniors, those living in low and middle-income households, and the non-college educated. Obama performs best with high socioeconomic groups and among those with more independent leanings, including young Democrats.

Former vice president Al Gore (who has yet to declare he will run) and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards have been closely matched for third place since late March, but on average Gore has enjoyed a three-point lead over Edwards. Gore does significantly better than this among Hispanics, as well as among young adults, non-high school graduates, blacks, and self-professed liberals.

These findings are based on an aggregate of six Gallup polls conducted on the Democratic race since early March. The most recent reading, from a May 10-13, 2007 Gallup Poll, is nearly identical to results for the entire period when Clinton averaged a 12-point lead over Obama.

Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. [ROTATED: Delaware Senator, Joe Biden; Retired General, Wesley Clark; New York Senator, Hillary Clinton; Connecticut Senator, Christopher Dodd; Former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards; Former Vice President, Al Gore; Former Alaska Senator, Mike Gravel; Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich; Illinois Senator, Barack Obama; New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson; The Reverend, Al Sharpton]

Based on Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party

Clinton's Core Support

Clinton's strongest support comes from groups associated with the traditional working-class base of the Democratic Party: lower-educated Americans, Easterners, lower-income Americans, seniors, women, and minorities. In line with this, she also does very well with those who unequivocally associate themselves with the Democratic Party.

The data show that Democratic blacks essentially split their vote between Clinton and Obama -- offering relatively few votes to Gore, Edwards, or the rest of the field. Thus, both Clinton and Obama do better among blacks than they do among the total sample of Democrats. Obama's gain among blacks is slightly higher than is Clinton's, resulting in an 8-point lead for the New York Senator, down from her 12-point lead over Obama in the entire sample.

Obama's Appeal

Obama's support profile is somewhat the flip side of Clinton's. Obama does not lead Clinton by a significant amount among any major subgroup, but he runs about even with her among Democrats living in the Midwest (his home turf), those with a post-graduate education, independents who lean Democratic, those with a college degree, and those in upper-income households. On a relative basis, he also does fairly well among Democrats aged 18 to 29 and men.

The Race for Third

In the close contest between Gore and Edwards for third place, Gore is the clear leader between these two candidates among Hispanics, young Democrats, and blacks. He also has fairly solid leads in the West (nine points) and East (seven points).

Edwards doesn't perform especially well among any groups, but on a relative basis he does best in the Midwest and South, among seniors, Protestants, whites, and conservative Democrats.

Richardson Not Exciting Hispanic Voters

New Mexico Sen. Bill Richardson is currently the only Hispanic in the field of announced Democratic candidates. Analysis of the March through May sample of Democrats, however, shows that so far his ethnic background does not appear to be earning him widespread support among Hispanic voters. Only 6% of Hispanics are supporting Richardson for the nomination. That is more support than he receives from white and black voters, but not enough to raise him out of the ranks of the marginal candidacies at the bottom of the Democratic preference list.

(The data used in this analysis do not include Spanish-language interviewing, although polling research has shown that election polling results of U.S. citizens who are registered to vote are not substantially altered by the inclusion of Spanish-language interviewing.)

Survey Methods

Results are based on six nationally representative USA Today/Gallup and Gallup Poll surveys conducted between March 2, 2007 and May 13, 2007. The combined database includes 6,009 national adults, aged 18 and older, including 3,089 Democrats and independents who lean Democratic. For results based on the total sample of Democrats and Democratic leaners, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.