GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ - The American public is paying relatively little attention to the conflict in East Timor, and to date has little inclination to support the involvement of U.S. military troops there as part of the international peacekeeping force. Only about two out of ten Americans are aware that the conflict involves Indonesia, but those who are following the situation closely are most likely to feel that the peaceful resolution of the conflict there is an important foreign policy goal of the U.S.
About 30% of Americans say they are following the news about the conflict in East Timor closely, which puts it almost at the bottom of a list of news events that Gallup has tracked over the past decade using this measure. Such very high-profile news stories as the death of Princess Diana or the fatal plane crash involving JFK Jr. receive "closely following" scores in the 80% range. The East Timor situation, at 29%, is currently above only one other news event Gallup has tested: the Japanese political reforms in 1994. Still, it is instructive to note that the public's reaction to the East Timor situation is closely approximating the attention paid to the situation in Kosovo last February, before the massive Allied bombing attacks began. Only 30% of Americans were following that situation closely in February, but after the active U.S. involvement began, the attention rating jumped to 78% (by the end of March). This suggests that the East Timor situation has the potential to push its way into the American public's consciousness in the weeks or months ahead if the situation deteriorates or if the U.S. becomes more directly involved.
Most Americans, not surprisingly given the low overall levels of attention being paid to the conflict, do not have a great deal of practical knowledge about the situation in East Timor. Over two-thirds of those interviewed had no answer when asked "With what country is East Timor currently having a dispute?" Of the 30% who did venture a response, 20% correctly said Indonesia, a few said China, a few Australia, and 2% said that the conflict was internal. Not surprisingly, there are very large differences in responses to this question by such variables as age and income: 46% of those with post-college educations named Indonesia, compared to only 10% of those with high school educations.
Despite their general lack of either knowledge about, or interest in, East Timor at this point, Americans are not willing to dismiss the potential importance of the situation there out of hand. Fourteen percent say that achieving a peaceful solution to the conflict is a very important foreign policy goal for the U.S., while another 42% say that it is a somewhat important goal. Only 33% say that such a solution is not important. Still, on a relative basis, this is the lowest "importance" rating Americans have given when asked about international situations in the 1990s. It contrasts with the higher ratings given by Americans when asked about the importance to the U.S. of four other situations: the Palestinian/Israeli situation in the Middle East, the situation in Kosovo, the situation in Bosnia, and the situation in Northern Ireland.
Those who are following the East Timor situation most closely are also most likely to feel it has importance for the U.S., although those who say they are not following it at all are more likely to say they don't have an opinion about its importance.
Only a very small number of American military forces are currently in East Timor, but 59% of Americans say they oppose sending in U.S. "military troops as part of the international peacekeeping force in East Timor." As is often the case, men are slightly more likely than women to say they favor sending in the troops. Politically speaking, 40% of Democrats say they favor sending in U.S. troops, compared to 28% of Republicans and 35% of independents.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 1,039 adults, 18 years and older,
conducted September 23-26, 1999. For results based on this sample,
one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus
3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
How closely have you followed the news about the conflict in East Timor -- very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?
| Very closely | 5% |
| Somewhat closely | 24 |
| Not too closely | 29 |
| Not at all | 41 |
| No opinion | 1 |
| 100% |
As far as you are concerned, should the development of a peaceful solution to the conflict in East Timor be a very important foreign policy goal of the United States, a somewhat important goal, not too important, or not an important goal at all?
| Very important | Somewhat important | Not too important | Not important at all | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Sep 23-26 | 14% | 42% | 20% | 13% | 11% |
| Trend from other conflicts: | |||||
| The Palestinian/Israeli situation in the Middle East | |||||
| 1999 Jul 22-25 | 41 | 41 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| 1993 Sep 10-12 | 41 | 36 | 11 | 8 | 4 |
| 1991 Mar | 46 | 41 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
| The situation in Kosovo | |||||
| 1999 Jul 22-25 | 44 | 38 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| The situation in Bosnia | |||||
| 1995 Oct 19-22 | 30 | 48 | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| 1993 Sep 10-12 | 31 | 43 | 12 | 9 | 5 |
| The situation in Northern Ireland | |||||
| 1999 Jul 22-25 | 23 | 46 | 16 | 8 | 7 |
Would you favor or oppose the United States sending in military troops as part of the international peacekeeping force in East Timor?
| Favor | 34% |
| Oppose | 59 |
| No opinion | 7 |
| 100% |