American Public Opinion and the Levy Case: Questions and Answers

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ –

How optimistic are Americans that the case of missing intern Chandra Levy will be solved?

As of last week, Americans are a bit more optimistic than pessimistic that the Levy case will be solved. In our CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, 51% of Americans said they thought the case would be solved, while 35% said it would not, and the rest had no opinion. By way of comparison, in November 1997, 11 months after the death of JonBenet Ramsey, only 33% of Americans said that case would be solved, while the majority -- 54% -- said it would not be (and so far, of course, the majority has been right on that score).

Do Americans think that Representative Condit was involved in the disappearance of Levy?

The situation is fluid, with new events, interpretation and information coming in each day, so sentiments about the possible involvement of Rep. Condit could presumably change fairly rapidly. Our CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted last week showed that 65% of Americans said it was at least somewhat likely that Condit was "directly involved in the disappearance of Chandra Levy." Of that group, 28% said it was very likely he was involved. Just 20% said it was not too likely or not at all likely that he was involved.

There have not been many other national surveys conducted on this issue. A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll released last week found that when Americans were asked if Condit had anything to do with Levy's disappearance, 41% said he had, while 18% said he had not. Forty-one percent said they didn't know. The Fox News poll also showed that two-thirds of Americans believed Condit had not told everything he knew about Levy's disappearance.

The vast majority of Americans -- 83% -- said last week in our Gallup poll that Condit should take a lie detector test in this matter. The question was asked before the dramatic revelation by Condit's lawyer on Friday that Condit had submitted to a lie detector test arranged by the lawyer. It is unclear at this point whether Americans feel that Condit should go further and take an official lie detector test run by the authorities themselves.

How do Americans think the media are handling their coverage of the case?

The Levy case has dominated print and broadcast news over the last several weeks. The media are getting acceptable marks from the American public -- at least so far. Sixty-one percent say the media are handling the story responsibly, while 30% say the media are acting irresponsibly, and the rest have no opinion. Gallup has asked this same question about media responsibility several times, and of the news stories measured, Americans have been most positive about the way the media handled the death of John F. Kennedy Jr. (75% said the media acted responsibly in that case). On the other hand, Americans were most critical of the media's handling of the Bush daughters' recent brush with the law in an underage drinking incident, and of the media's initial (January 1998) handling of what was then an alleged affair between Bill Clinton and the young intern, Monica Lewinsky.

Is this an important story to Americans?

Gallup's basic measure of how closely Americans are following the story suggests that it has captured the interest of the majority of Americans. In our July 10-11 poll, 63% of Americans said they were following the story closely, putting it near the top of the list of news events tested this year. Interest in the Levy/Condit story is essentially tied with the level of public attention that was paid to the Ford-Firestone dispute and Bill Clinton's last-minute pardons. It ranks slightly below the attention paid in late June to the story of the Houston woman accused of murdering her five children.

At the same time, the level of interest in the Levy story is nowhere near the interest paid to such major news stories of the past decade as the deaths of Princess Diana and John F. Kennedy Jr., the beginning of the war in the Persian Gulf in 1991, the bombing of Kosovo in 1999, and the election aftermath controversy last fall. All of these were closely followed by 80% or more of the American public.

Is U.S. Representative Gary Condit's involvement in this situation likely to have any impact on the public's trust in their Congress?

Congress doesn't have a great image in the eyes of the American public to begin with. Gallup's annual honesty and ethics poll, conducted most recently last November, found that just 2% of Americans said congressmen had very high honesty and ethical standards, 19% said they had high standards, 56% said they had average standards, and 21% said they had low or very low standards. The "low" and "very low" rating for congressional representatives was not as low as the rating for some of the other professions tested, including car salesmen (57% of Americans said they have low or very low honesty and ethical standards), lawyers (40% low or very low standards) or insurance salesmen (36% low or very low standards). At the same time, the fact that only 21% gave congressional representatives high marks on honesty and ethical standards puts them near the bottom of the list of professions tested. By way of comparison, 79% of Americans say that nurses have high or very high honesty and ethical standards, 67% say this about pharmacists, and 66% say this about veterinarians. In short, while Americans don't think that congressional representatives are totally bereft of ethics, neither do they think they are paragons of virtue.

Separately, we updated our confidence in institutions poll last month and found that Congress came in very near the bottom of the list of 16 institutions tested. Just 26% of Americans say they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in Congress, compared to the 66% who have high confidence in the military, which is at the top of the list.

At the same time, perhaps paradoxically, the job approval rating for Congress has reached an all-time high this year. Congress has averaged a 52% job approval this year, which -- although not high on an absolute basis -- is higher than any other yearly average recorded by Gallup since 1974, when Gallup first began rating Congress using an approval scale.

We also know from other research that Americans are not terribly troubled by the basic fact that an elected official has had extramarital romantic relations. We learned in the context of the Clinton-Lewinsky situation that many Americans were willing to overlook the president's affair. Separate polling at about that time suggested that the public was much more concerned if elected officials were alcoholics, had financial problems, or were gamblers than if they strayed outside of their marriages. These findings suggest that the basic fact that one of the 435 U.S. representatives has apparently committed adultery may in and of itself be neither terribly shocking to the public, nor of such great significance as to cause a wholesale re-evaluation of the public's views of the legislative institution.

Of course, if new revelations and evidence demonstrate that Condit was more directly involved in Levy's disappearance, the impact on the public's overall ratings of Congress could be more significant. We will continue to measure any possible fallout from the Condit issue on ratings of Congress in the months ahead.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 998 adults, 18 years and older, conducted July 10-11, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Now I have a few questions about the case of Chandra Levy [SHON-dra LEE-vee], the 24-year-old Washington intern who disappeared more than two months ago.

How closely have you been following the news concerning the investigation into the disappearance of Chandra Levy -- very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?

 

	Very closely	Somewhat closely	Not too closely	Not at all	No opinion
2001 Jul 10-11	20%	43	22	15	*
* Less than 0.5%

 

Do you think the case involving the disappearance of Chandra Levy will ever be solved, or not?

 

	Yes, will be solved	No, will not	No opinion
2001 Jul 10-11	51%	35	14

 

Now, I have a few questions concerning Gary Condit, the California Congressman who, according to some reports, had an extramarital affair with Chandra Levy.

How likely do you think it is that Gary Condit was directly involved in the disappearance of Chandra Levy -- very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?

 

	Very  likely	Somewhat likely	Not too likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
2001 Jul 10-11	28%	37	13	7	15

 

Do you think Gary Condit should or should not take a lie detector test in this matter?

 

	Should take	Should not take	No opinion
2001 Jul 10-11	83%	13	4

 

If your representative from Congress were involved in a matter like this, would this make you less likely to vote for that person, or would it have no effect?

 

	Less likely to vote for	No effect	MORE LIKELY (vol.)	No opinion
2001 Jul 10-11	71%	24	*	5

 (vol.) Volunteered response
* Less than 0.5%

Overall, do you feel the news media have acted responsibly or irresponsibly in this situation?

 

	Responsibly	Irresponsibly	No opinion
2001 Jul 10-11	61%	30	9

 

Suppose you had a daughter in her early twenties who asked your advice on whether she should move to Washington, D.C. to become a government intern. Would you advise her to accept the internship in Washington, or not?

 

	Yes, would advise to accept	No, would not advise to accept	No opinion
2001 Jul 10-11	53%	43	4