GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup poll shows that public perceptions of the economy have worsened over the past month, with several economic ratings now at or below the level they were just prior to the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11. In the days leading up to that tragic event, The Gallup Poll, and several others, showed plummeting consumer confidence, but in the immediate aftermath, consumer confidence seemed to rally along with the public's confidence and trust in government in general. Over the past two months, however, the economic "rally effect" seems to have dissipated, though the political rally remains solid.
Low Ratings Prior to Terrorist Attack
Gallup Poll economic data gathered just before the terrorist attacks (Sept. 7-10) showed that, when consumers were asked to rate economic conditions in the country, only about one out of three (32%) said the economy was excellent or good. A Gallup poll (Sept. 14-15) immediately following the attacks showed a significant rally effect, with 45% of consumers giving the economy a high rating. By Oct. 11-14, some of the rally effect had dissipated, as 38% of consumers rated the economy as excellent or good. By last weekend's poll (Nov. 8-11), that number had declined to just 31%, as the rally effect disappeared.
Currently, consumers' economic perceptions are much worse than those of a year ago (Nov. 13-15, 2000), when nearly three out of four (72%) rated the U.S. economy as good or excellent. In fact, it is the weakest rating for the U.S. economy since May 1996, when 30% of consumers rated the economy good or excellent. Still, today's levels are considerably higher those reached in the 1992 recession when the combined ratings of good and excellent on the economy ranged between 10% and 12% (January to October 1992).
| How would you rate economic conditions in
this country today -- as excellent, good, only fair, or poor? January 1992 to November 2001 |
 |
Another Gallup economic measure shows a similar rally effect that has since waned, though not to the pre-Sept. 11 levels. A Sept. 7-10 Gallup poll showed 70% of Americans saying economic conditions in the country were getting worse, while only 19% said they were getting better. The following poll of Sept.14-15 showed that consumer perceptions -- instead of falling further -- had actually returned to their August 2001 level, with 60% of Americans saying economic conditions in the country were getting worse, while 28% said they were getting better. The Oct. 11-14 poll showed a further improvement in consumer perceptions -- back to July 2001 levels -- 55% of Americans said economic conditions in the country are getting worse, while 33% said they are getting better.
By November, however, the percentage of consumers saying economic conditions are getting better began to decline -- falling to 30% -- while the number saying things are getting worse increased to 59%. These percentages are still far better that those measured in the Sept. 7-10 poll, when only 19% said economic conditions were getting better and 70% said worse. Still, these new November ratings stand in sharp contrast to consumer perceptions of just a year ago (Nov. 6-9, 2000), when 50% of consumers said economic conditions were getting better and only 38% said worse.
| Right now, do you think that economic
conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting
worse? October 2000 - November 2001 |
 |
Low Expectations for Economy Over Next Six Months
Gallup Poll economic data gathered Nov. 8-11 also show many consumers with low expectations about the economy over the next six months. More than half expect unemployment to go up a lot or a little, and about three in 10 expect economic growth to decline. Another quarter expect economic growth to remain about the same as it is now. In addition, only about four in 10 Americans expect the stock market to go up, while three in 10 say it will go down, and the rest say it will remain at the current level.
NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK TABLE
|
2001 Nov 8-11 |
Total |
Remain |
Total |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Unemployment |
52 |
13 |
34 |
|
Stock market |
42 |
23 |
30 |
|
Inflation |
47 |
31 |
19 |
|
Economic growth |
39 |
26 |
32 |
|
Interest rates |
26 |
32 |
41 |
Perceptions of Job Opportunities Remain Pessimistic
Consistent with lower ratings of the economy, Americans continue to perceive this as a "bad time" for job opportunities.
Three out of four (75%) Americans who are either employed or looking for a job say this is a bad time to find a quality job, while almost one out of four (22%) think it is a good time. This is only slightly worse than the situation reflected in an Oct. 11-14 poll, when 71% said that it is a bad time to find a quality job and 25% said it was a good time. However, it contrasts sharply with the situation about a year ago (Aug. 4-31, 2000) when three out of four (78%) Americans said it was a good time to find a job and only 16% said a bad time.
| Thinking about the job situation in America
today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a quality job? (Based on Employed adults or unemployed adults looking for work) |
 |
Given this view of the job market, and recent announcements of a declining GDP, it is not surprising that the percentage of Americans believing that we are now in a recession has gone up. According to the Nov. 8-11 poll, 59% of all Americans say we are now in a recession. This is up from only about half of all Americans (49%) who agreed that we were in a recession in October. It is also far more than the one-third of Americans who thought we were in a recession in May. Still, it is well below the more than three-quarters of all Americans who acknowledged that we were experiencing a recession during the last U.S. recession of 1991-92.
| Do you think the economy is now in a recession, or not? |
 |
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,005 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Nov. 8-11, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
