GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A State of the Union address is typically an important venue for U.S. presidents to corral public support for political vision and policy initiatives. Speaking past the members of Congress and straight into the live television cameras, it is a once-a-year chance for the modern president to inspire and persuade the American people.
President George W. Bush should be as well positioned as any president in recent history to accomplish these objectives in his speech tonight. He enjoys sky high approval ratings, has extensive support for his leadership on issues when positioned against the Democrats in Congress, stirs public confidence in the direction in which he is leading the nation, and receives high approval ratings for his leadership in foreign affairs and, to a lesser degree, the economy.
According to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, the president's ratings in each of these areas are exceptionally high, still reflecting the public support he earned following the events of Sept. 11.
- 84% of Americans approve of the overall job he is doing as president; only 13% disapprove.
- 83% characterize the Bush presidency to date as a "success."
- 83% approve of the way he is handling what is arguably the most important issue of the moment, foreign affairs.
- 64% approve of the way he is handling the economy -- lower than his high point of 72% in October, but still higher than he garnered for the economy prior to Sept. 11, and higher than most presidents, historically, have received for the economy.
- 73% think the policies Bush is proposing will move the country in the right direction.
Although former President Bill Clinton never received an overall job approval score higher than 70%, it is worth noting that many of Bush's other ratings today are similar to Clinton's during the most successful period of his presidency -- in 1998 and 1999 when the economy was booming. Clinton earned an 81% approval score for the economy in Jan. 1999 and, at the same time, 81% of Americans described his presidency as a success. In Oct. 1998, 70% of Americans said Clinton's policies would move the country in the right direction.
Bush's Strengths and Weaknesses
Bush's strategy for taking best advantage of the speech might include using his position of strength to improve his standing in weaker policy areas, or to try to build support for controversial proposals. Alternatively, he may use the speech to reinforce his positive image where it is strongest, and perhaps focus most of his policy proposals in those areas.
The new survey, conducted Jan. 25-27, measured public support for Bush on a variety of issues. Americans were asked whether they have more trust in Bush or the Democrats in Congress to handle 13 separate issues -- Bush is preferred on 11. Bush's three strongest issues, relative to the Democrats', are all connected to the war on terrorism, but he also receives strong ratings on education, taxes, and the economy. Bush's weakest areas are the environment and healthcare, but these issues are traditional Democratic strengths. Even competing at close to par with the Democrats is a sign of Bush's strength.
The percentages shown in this graph are Bush's advantage on each issue (the percentage choosing Bush minus the percentage choosing the Democrats). Negative numbers indicate that more respondents preferred the Democrats to Bush on that issue.
| Bush Advantage on Issues % Difference Between Confidence in George W. Bush and Confidence in Democrats in Congress |
 |
| Jan 25-27, 2002 |
| Bush Advantage on Issues % Difference Between Confidence in George W. Bush and Confidence in Democrats in Congress |
 |
| Jan 25-27, 2002 |
Little Room for Improvement
At 84%, Bush's current job approval score from the American people is only six points below his high mark of 90%, obtained approximately 10 days after the Sept. 11 attacks. That 90% rating is also the high mark for any president in Gallup's measurement dating back to Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Bush's approval rating has held in the-mid 80s for the past three months.
Gallup records show that U.S. presidents have often received a boost in their job approval rating after delivering the State of the Union address, but it is by no means guaranteed. In all the cases where it has occurred, the president's approval rating in advance of the speech was much lower than Bush's is today, ranging in the 40s or 50s.
Perhaps the most intriguing example is from 1998, when President Clinton delivered his State of the Union address only days after news broke that he may have had an affair with a young White House intern (Monica Lewinsky), and lied about it under oath in the Paula Jones sexual harassment lawsuit. Although it is not clear how much his job approval's subsequent jump was due to positive economic factors, Gallup polling showed Clinton's job approval score rising 10 points in the first few days after the 1998 State of the Union speech, from 59% to 69%.
The most comparable example to Bush's current situation was in 1991. In that year, President George H.W. Bush also delivered his State of the Union address on Jan. 29, was in the midst of the Gulf War, and his approval rating was in the low 80s. Gallup polling conducted a few days before and a few days after the speech showed no change in overall public support for the job he was doing.
|
President George H.W. Bush Approval -- Jan-Feb 1989
|
||
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
91 Jan 3-6 |
58 |
31 |
|
91 Jan 11-13 |
64 |
25 |
|
91 Jan 17-20 |
82 |
12 |
|
91 Jan 19-22 |
80 |
14 |
|
91 Jan 23-26 |
83 |
13 |
|
State of the Union Speech -- Jan. 29 |
||
|
91 Jan 30-Feb 2 |
82 |
15 |
|
91 Feb 7-10 |
79 |
18 |
|
91 Feb 14-17 |
80 |
14 |
|
91 Feb 21-24 |
80 |
13 |
|
91 Feb 28-Mar 3 |
89 |
8 |
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,011 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Jan. 25-27, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
(NA) 2002 Jan 25-27 |
84 |
13 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14 |
83 |
13 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2002 Jan 7-9 |
84 |
12 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2001 Dec 14-16 |
86 |
11 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2001 Dec 6-9 |
86 |
10 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2001 Nov 26-27 |
87 |
8 |
5 |
|
(NA) 2001 Nov 8-11 |
87 |
9 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2001 Nov 2-4 |
87 |
9 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2001 Oct 19-21 |
88 |
9 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2001 Oct 11-14 |
89 |
8 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2001 Oct 5-6 |
87 |
10 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2001 Sep 21-22 |
90 |
6 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2001 Sep 14-15 |
86 |
10 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2001 Sep 7-10 |
51 |
39 |
10 |
|
(NA) 2001 Aug 24-26 |
55 |
36 |
9 |
|
(NA) 2001 Aug 16-19 |
57 |
34 |
9 |
|
(NA) 2001 Aug 10-12 |
57 |
35 |
8 |
|
(NA) 2001 Aug 3-5 |
55 |
35 |
10 |
|
(NA) 2001 Jul 19-22 |
56 |
33 |
11 |
|
(NA) 2001 Jul 10-11 |
57 |
35 |
8 |
|
(NA) 2001 Jun 28-Jul 1 |
52 |
34 |
14 |
|
(NA) 2001 Jun 11-17 |
55 |
33 |
12 |
|
(NA) 2001 Jun 8-10 |
55 |
35 |
10 |
|
(NA) 2001 May 18-20 |
56 |
36 |
8 |
|
(NA) 2001 May 10-14 |
56 |
31 |
13 |
|
(NA) 2001 May 7-9 |
53 |
33 |
14 |
|
(NA) 2001 Apr 20-22 |
62 |
29 |
9 |
|
(NA) 2001 Apr 6-8 |
59 |
30 |
11 |
|
(NA) 2001 Mar 26-28 |
53 |
29 |
18 |
|
(NA) 2001 Mar 9-11 |
58 |
29 |
13 |
|
(NA) 2001 Mar 5-7 |
63 |
22 |
15 |
|
(NA) 2001 Feb 19-21 |
62 |
21 |
17 |
|
(NA) 2001 Feb 9-11 |
57 |
25 |
18 |
|
(NA) 2001 Feb 1-4 |
57 |
25 |
18 |
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [ROTATED]? How about -- ?
A. The economy
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
(NA) 2002 Jan 25-27 |
64 |
30 |
6 |
|
(NA) 2001 Nov 2-4 ^ |
71 |
24 |
5 |
|
(NA) 2001 Oct 5-6 |
72 |
23 |
5 |
|
(NA) 2001 Jul 10-11 |
54 |
36 |
10 |
|
(NA) 2001 May 18-20 |
51 |
41 |
8 |
|
(NA) 2001 Apr 20-22 ^ |
55 |
38 |
7 |
|
(NA) 2001 Mar 9-11 |
55 |
32 |
13 |
|
(NA) 2001 Feb 1-4 |
53 |
27 |
20 |
|
^ Asked of half sample. |
|||
B. Foreign affairs
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
(NA) 2002 Jan 25-27 |
83 |
14 |
3 |
|
(NA) 2001 Oct 5-6 |
81 |
14 |
5 |
|
(NA) 2001 Jul 10-11 |
54 |
33 |
13 |
|
(NA) 2001 May 18-20 |
55 |
35 |
10 |
|
(NA) 2001 Apr 20-22 ^ |
56 |
31 |
13 |
|
(NA) 2001 Mar 9-11 |
52 |
27 |
21 |
|
(NA) 2001 Feb 1-4 |
46 |
21 |
33 |
|
^ Asked of half sample. |
|||
Who do you have more confidence in when it comes to handling the following issues -- [ROTATED: President Bush (or) the Democrats in Congress]? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
A. The economy
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
55% |
36 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
B. Education
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
58% |
31 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
C. Energy
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
49% |
39 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
D. The environment
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
40% |
48 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
E. The federal budget deficit
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
49% |
38 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
F. Foreign affairs
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
70% |
21 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
G. Healthcare
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
41% |
43 |
2 |
7 |
7 |
H. Creating jobs
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
47% |
39 |
2 |
6 |
6 |
I. National defense
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
76% |
17 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
J. Social Security
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
45% |
40 |
2 |
6 |
7 |
K. Taxes
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
58% |
34 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
L. Terrorism
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
79% |
14 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
M. Unemployment
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
47% |
41 |
2 |
5 |
5 |
SUMMARY TABLE: CONFIDENCE IN HANDLING ISSUES
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
||
|
Terrorism |
79 |
14 |
+65 |
|
|
National defense |
76 |
17 |
+59 |
|
|
Foreign affairs |
70 |
21 |
+49 |
|
|
Education |
58 |
31 |
+27 |
|
|
Taxes |
58 |
34 |
+24 |
|
|
The economy |
55 |
36 |
+19 |
|
|
The federal budget deficit |
49 |
38 |
+11 |
|
|
Energy |
49 |
39 |
+10 |
|
|
Creating jobs |
47 |
39 |
+8 |
|
|
Unemployment |
47 |
41 |
+6 |
|
|
Social Security |
45 |
40 |
+5 |
|
|
Healthcare |
41 |
43 |
-2 |
|
|
The environment |
40 |
48 |
-8 |
|
|
+ |
Advantage indicates lead for President Bush |
|||
|
- |
Advantage indicates lead for the Democrats in Congress |
|||
Do you consider the first year of the Bush administration to be a -- [ROTATED: success (or a) failure]?
|
Success |
Failure |
TOO SOON |
No opinion |
||
|
(NA) 2002 Jan 25-27 |
83% |
11 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
(NA) 2001 Aug 3-5 ^ |
56% |
32 |
7 |
5 |
|
|
^ |
WORDING: Do you consider the first six months of the Bush administration to be a -- [ROTATED: success (or a) failure]? |
||||
Do you think the policies being proposed by George W. Bush will move the country in the right direction or the wrong direction?
|
Right direction |
Wrong direction |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
National Adults |
|||
|
(NA) 2002 Jan 25-27 |
73 |
19 |
8 |
|
(NA) 2001 Apr 20-22 |
55 |
34 |
11 |
|
(NA) 2001 Jan 15-16 ^ |
56 |
36 |
8 |
|
(NA) 2000 Aug 18-19 |
55 |
36 |
9 |
|
(NA) 2000 Apr 7-9 |
51 |
31 |
18 |
|
(NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 |
64 |
27 |
9 |
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
(RV) 2002 Jan 25-27 |
74 |
19 |
7 |
|
(RV) 2001 Jan 15-16 ^ |
57 |
36 |
7 |
|
(RV) 2000 Oct 20-22 |
53 |
38 |
9 |
|
(RV) 2000 Sep 28-30 |
51 |
36 |
13 |
|
(RV) 2000 Sep 8-10 |
49 |
36 |
15 |
|
(RV) 2000 Sep 7-9 |
49 |
33 |
18 |
|
(NA) 2000 Aug 18-19 |
57 |
35 |
8 |
|
(NA) 2000 Apr 7-9 |
51 |
33 |
16 |
|
(NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 |
63 |
29 |
8 |
|
^ WORDING: Do you think the policies being proposed by George W. Bush would move the country in the right direction or the wrong direction? |
|||
|
1999-2000 GEORGE W. BUSH WORDING: Next, do you think the policies being proposed by each of the following presidential candidates would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction? How about…[Al Gore, George W. Bush]? |
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(vol.) – Volunteered response
