Trend in nightly results moving in Obama’s favor
PRINCETON, NJ -- Voter preferences in the presidential election remain closely split between Barack Obama, now favored by 46% of national registered voters, and John McCain, favored by 44%.
Today's results, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from June 3-7, represent the most positive position Obama has been in versus McCain since mid-May, when he led the presumptive Republican nominee by three percentage points. Since then, Obama either has tied or slightly trailed McCain, or at best been one percentage point ahead (although not a statistically significant lead). (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Within the current five-day rolling average, Obama has exceeded McCain by a fair margin in each of the last three individual nights of Gallup polling, all conducted since Hillary Clinton announced she would be ending her bid for the Democratic nomination. It appears that her exit decision had the immediate effect of releasing some of her supporters to back Obama in the general election. If this continues in interviews conducted Sunday, Obama should have a clear lead over McCain in Monday's release. -- Lydia Saad
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from June 3-7, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,379 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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