No significant change in structure of race
PRINCETON, NJ -- The race for president remains "steady as she goes," with Barack Obama maintaining a modest 47% to 43% advantage over John McCain among registered voters in the June 30-July 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking results.
As would be expected from any methodology involving repeated sampling from a large population, there have been slight fluctuations in the daily reports of Gallup Poll Daily tracking rolling averages (each based on three days worth of interviewing of over 2,500 registered voters), but little indication for weeks now of substantive change in the structure of the race. The preferences of registered voters between the two major party candidates remain closely divided, with Obama usually polling within a few percentage points of 46%, and McCain polling within a few points of 43%.
Gallup will conduct interviews Thursday, July 3, but will not interview on July 4. The report on the three-day rolling average for Tuesday through Thursday will be posted on gallup.com on Saturday, July 5. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Frank Newport
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from June 30-July 2, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,641 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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