GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The year 1997 has shaped up as one during which the American public has achieved new levels of optimism on several important social and economic dimensions. Recent Gallup polls indicate that the public is as positive about the U.S. economy as they have been at any time over the last five years, and that views on incidence of crime in the U.S. and in respondents' own local areas are more optimistic than in any Gallup survey since 1972.
Gallup asks Americans to rate the state of economic conditions in this country by choosing one of four descriptions: excellent, good, only fair, or poor. This question has been asked in this fashion since early 1992, at which time the numbers were extraordinarily dismal. In August of 1992, for example, 90% of those polled said the economy was only fair or poor, including 53% who labeled economic conditions as poor. (This negative perception of the economic health of the country was widely perceived to be a major reason why George Bush lost his bid for re-election in that year.)
The turnaround in economic perceptions on the part of Americans began to occur soon after Bill Clinton's inauguration in 1993, and have become increasingly positive ever since. Now, in the most recent Gallup poll conducted November 6-9, the poll results show an all-time five year high point in Americans' perceptions of the economy of the country. In this most recent poll,10% record the economy as excellent, 48% as good, 33% as only fair, and only nine percent as poor. This combined percent of 58% who see our economy as excellent or good marks, as noted, the highest positive number since 1992, and the lowly nine percent who rate the economy as "poor" stands in dramatic contrast to the 53% who rated the economy as poor only 5 years ago.
Along with these sanguine views of the economy have come more positive views of the crime situation in the country, despite the fact that Americans are usually extremely reluctant to admit that anything having to do with crime may be getting better. In fact, a full 46% of those interviewed in a recent Gallup poll still said that there was more crime in their local area than a year ago, and 64% said there was more crime in the U.S. than a year ago. These numbers may seem high, but the percent of those polled who - on the opposite side of the scale -- said that there was less crime in their local area or in the U.S. is actually at record levels of optimism. Specifically, the 32% who said that there was less crime in their area than a year ago constitutes the highest number on the "less" side of the ledger recorded since the question was first asked in 1972. Similarly, the 25% who now admit that there is less crime in the U.S. than a year ago is the highest recorded on that scale in the eight years that this question has been asked.
METHODOLOGY
The results on the economy are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, 18 years and
older, conducted November 6-9, 1997; the crime results are from a
poll conducted August 22-25, 1997, with a national sample of 1,014
adults. For results based on samples of this size, one can say with
95 percent confidence that the error attributable to sampling and
other random effects could be plus or minus 3 percentage points. In
addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into
the findings of public opinion polls.
Thinking about the economy, how would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
| Economic Conditions - Trend | |||||
| Excellent | Good | Fair | Poor | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 Nov 6-9 | 10% | 48 | 33 | 9 | |
| 1997 Aug 22-25 | 8% | 41 | 38 | 13 | * |
| 1997 May 6-7 | 7% | 39 | 38 | 15 | 1 |
| 1997 Jan 31-Feb.2 | 4% | 38 | 43 | 15 | * |
| 1996 Oct 26-29 | 5% | 42 | 39 | 13 | 1 |
| 1996 Aug 30-Sep 1 | 3% | 34 | 46 | 16 | 1 |
| 1996 Jul 18-21 | 5% | 38 | 43 | 14 | * |
| 1996 May 9-12 | 3% | 27 | 50 | 19 | 1 |
| 1996 Apr 9-10 | 1% | 26 | 52 | 20 | 1 |
| 1996 Mar 15-17 | 2% | 31 | 48 | 18 | 1 |
| 1996 Jan 5-7 | 1% | 28 | 47 | 23 | 1 |
| 1995 Nov 6-8 | 2% | 28 | 47 | 22 | 1 |
| 1995 May 11-14 | 2% | 27 | 50 | 20 | 1 |
| 1994 Dec 16-18 | 2% | 25 | 52 | 21 | * |
| 1994 Nov 2-6 | 2% | 28 | 49 | 20 | 1 |
| 1994 Oct 22-25 | 1% | 25 | 52 | 21 | 1 |
| 1994 Jul 15-17 | 1% | 26 | 52 | 21 | * |
| 1994 Apr 22-24 | 1% | 23 | 49 | 26 | 1 |
| 1994 Jan 15-17 | * | 22 | 54 | 24 | * |
| 1993 Dec 4-6 | 1% | 20 | 57 | 21 | 1 |
| 1993 Nov 2-4 | 1% | 16 | 50 | 33 | * |
| 1993 Aug 8-10 | * | 10 | 49 | 40 | 1 |
| 1993 Jun 29-30 | 1% | 14 | 52 | 32 | 1 |
| 1993 Feb 12-14 | * | 14 | 46 | 39 | 1 |
| 1992 Dec 18-20 | 2% | 16 | 34 | 47 | 1 |
| 1992 Dec 4-6 | 1% | 14 | 41 | 43 | 1 |
| 1992 Oct 23-25 | * | 11 | 45 | 43 | 1 |
| 1992 Sep 11-15 | 1% | 10 | 37 | 51 | 1 |
| 1992 Aug 31-Sep 2 | 1% | 9 | 37 | 53 | * |
| 1992 Jun 12-14 | 1% | 11 | 47 | 41 | * |
| 1992 Apr 9-12 | 1% | 11 | 40 | 48 | * |
| 1992 Jan 3-6 | * | 12 | 46 | 41 | 1 |
| * Less then 0.5% | |||||
Is there more crime in your area than there was a year ago, or less?
| Crime in Your Area - Trend | ||||
| More | Less | Same(vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 Aug 22-25 | 46% | 32 | 20 | 2 |
| 1996 Jul 25-28 | 46% | 24 | 25 | 5 |
| 1992 Feb | 54% | 19 | 23 | 4 |
| 1990 Sep | 51% | 18 | 24 | 8 |
| 1989 Jun | 53% | 18 | 22 | 7 |
| 1989 Jan | 47% | 21 | 27 | 5 |
| 1983 | 37% | 17 | 36 | 10 |
| 1981 | 54% | 8 | 29 | 9 |
| 1977 | 43% | 17 | 32 | 8 |
| 1975 | 50% | 12 | 29 | 9 |
| 1972 | 51% | 10 | 27 | 12 |
Is there more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago, or less?
| Crime in the U.S - Trend | ||||
| More | Less | Same(vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 Aug 22-25 | 64% | 25 | 6 | 5 |
| 1996 Jul 25-28 | 71% | 15 | 8 | 6 |
| 1992 Feb | 89% | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 1990 Sep | 84% | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| 1989 Jun | 84% | 5 | 5 | 6 |
