Independents, Democrats Not on Board With GOP Tax Plan

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As the Senate version of the Republican tax reform bill made its way through the legislative process this weekend, Gallup documented a highly partisan imbalance in Americans' reactions. Seven percent of Democrats and 25% of independents polled Friday and Saturday say they approve of the proposed changes to the federal tax code, contrasted with 70% of Republicans.

	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
	%	%	%
U.S. adults	29	56	16
Republicans	70	16	14
Independents	25	56	19
Democrats	7	87	7
Gallup, Dec. 1-2, 2017

Mostly as a result of weak support from Democrats and independents regarding the proposed tax changes, 29% of U.S. adults as a whole approve of the plan, while 56% disapprove and 16% have no opinion. Still, 16% of Republicans disapprove, resulting in fewer Republicans approving of the plan (70%) than Democrats disapproving (87%).

The tax bill passed a major hurdle Saturday morning when the Senate approved it on a 51 to 49 near party-line vote. It now heads to conference committee where representatives from the House and Senate will work to craft compromise legislation that could get through both chambers by month's end.

Americans' current approval of the proposed tax changes is slightly lower than the 39% approval Gallup found the last time Congress took on a major overhaul of the federal tax code. That was in 1986, with President Ronald Reagan spearheading the legislation. However, the big difference between the two efforts is that far fewer Americans opposed the 1986 tax bill than oppose the proposals being debated today, 34% vs. 56%, respectively. More than a quarter of Americans in September 1986, just prior to final passage of that plan, expressed no opinion about it -- roughly twice today's level.

Sizable Portion of Republicans and Independents Undecided on Plan

If there is a bright spot in these data for Republicans, it is that public uncertainty about the plan is highest among Republicans (14%) and independents (19%) -- two groups that might break relatively positively toward the law as they learn more about it, thus nudging overall approval a bit higher. By contrast, just 7% of Democrats have no opinion about the GOP tax proposals.

Notably, Democrats have been following the news about congressional debate over the tax bill more closely than other party groups have. Thirty-nine percent of Democrats report following the topic very closely -- well above the 28% of Republicans and 25% of independents.

Even when factoring in those following the tax bill somewhat closely, Democrats are still more attentive, with 74% following it very or somewhat closely, versus 67% of Republicans and 56% of independents.

	Very closely	Somewhat closely	Not too closely	Not at all
	%	%	%
U.S. adults	30	34	21	14
Republicans	28	39	20	12
Independents	25	31	24	19
Democrats	39	35	16	9
Gallup, Dec. 1-2, 2017

Implications

After a few short weeks of intense political negotiations, Republican leaders have arrived at an overhaul of the federal tax code that appeals to much of the GOP base but has yet to win over independents and has hit a brick wall with Democrats.

While the 29% of Americans favoring the current tax plan isn't markedly different from the 39% who favored Reagan's tax cut plan in 1986, today's plan sparks much more disapproval, leaving fewer Americans uncertain about the plan. Further, intensity seems to be on the side of the opposition, with Democrats paying closer attention to news about the tax proposals and appearing more unified in their opposition to the plan than Republicans are in support of it.

Republicans seem set on passing their tax bill regardless of public opinion, both to keep election promises to their political base and to have a solid legislative success on which to campaign in the 2018 midterms. But for this approach to work in their favor, they may at least need to convert some Republicans and independents who have no opinion about the plan into supporters -- something the conference committee negotiators may want to keep in mind as they consider provisions like cutting the corporate tax rate and eliminating tax exemptions used by the middle class.