GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's job approval rating has remained essentially steady for the past month, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey conducted last week. The Republican-controlled Congress, however, has not fared as well, experiencing a significant drop in approval. At the same time, a majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country, which is no change from the middle of January, but a significant change from early January, when Americans were approaching the new year with a more optimistic attitude.
Bush Approval
The latest poll, conducted Feb. 9-12, shows 51% of Americans approving, and 46% disapproving, of Bush's job performance. In four readings over the past month, his approval rating has fluctuated between 49% and 53%, suggesting little substantive change over that period. But the current rating is down significantly from the middle of last December, after the capture of Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein. Although Bush's approval rating had been as low as 50% twice in the fall of 2003, Hussein's capture was followed by a seven-point "rally effect," with public approval of the president's job performance jumping from 56% to 63%.
Bush Approval Rating Overall and Compared by Party Affiliation (Percentage Who Approve in Each Group) |
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The rally lasted only a month, with Bush's approval rating returning to its pre-capture level by the middle of January, and then declining still further at the end of the month. Since then, his approval has remained in the low 50% range.
The greatest fluctuation in Bush's approval is found among Democrats, who went from a 22% approval rating of the president before Hussein's capture to 36% afterward. By contrast, Republicans and independents showed only six-point and five-point rally effects, respectively, from the capture.
Following the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, a Jan. 29-Feb. 1 poll found Bush's approval by Democrats at only 12%, the lowest level of the Bush presidency. By contrast, Republican approval remained at 89%, while approval among independents, at 48%, was still six points higher than the low for that group in mid-November of last year. The low rating among Democrats may have reflected the high publicity given to the Democratic candidates, who were as likely to criticize the president as each other.
Approval of Congress
Congress also appears to have experienced a slight rally effect from Hussein's capture, though the polls measuring approval of the legislature were not conducted as close to the event as those measuring presidential approval. From September through December (before the capture), the polls showed a slight majority of Americans disapproving of the job Congress was doing, but in mid-January, a bare plurality approved -- 48% to 45%. That represented a five-point gain in approval over the previous poll. However, the current poll shows the public's rating back to the previous levels, with 51% disapproving, and just 41% approving.
Approval of Congress Overall and Compared by Party Affiliation (Percentage Who Approve in Each Group) |
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Again, the Democrats gave the Republican-controlled Congress the largest rally after the capture of Hussein, with approval going from 22% to 32% -- a 10-point surge. Republicans and independents, by contrast, showed increases of just 5 points and 2 points, respectively.
General Satisfaction in the United States
One of Gallup's key measures of the political climate in the United States is the degree to which people are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country. Though the question does not refer to politics, it is clear that the public perceives this matter through partisan lenses.
Satisfaction With Way Things Are Going
in the U.S. Overall and Compared by Party Affiliation (Percentage in Each Group Who Are Satisfied) |
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In a pattern that is similar to the ratings of the president and Congress, Republicans are much more likely to be "satisfied" than are either independents or Democrats. The large gaps in ratings suggest how partisan the perceptions are. Republicans typically are more satisfied by 25 to 30 percentage points than are independents, and independents are about 20 to 25 points more satisfied than Democrats.
Unlike the approval ratings of Congress and the president, however, all the trend lines in satisfaction among the three partisan groups are about parallel. These results suggest that despite the large differences in absolute ratings, the three groups react similarly to current events. The ratings before and after the capture of Hussein, for example, show a seven-point increase among Republicans, and six-point increases among both independents and Democrats.
The fact that the overall satisfaction level is below 50% is significant for the Bush re-election effort. If by November more than half the population remains dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country, it will be difficult for the president to obtain a majority of the vote.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,002 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-12, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
|
Dis- |
No |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
2004 |
|||
2004 Feb 9-12 |
51 |
46 |
3 |
2004 Feb 6-8 |
52 |
44 |
4 |
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
49 |
48 |
3 |
2004 Jan 12-15 |
53 |
44 |
3 |
2004 Jan 9-11 |
59 |
38 |
3 |
2004 Jan 2-5 |
60 |
35 |
5 |
2003 |
|||
2003 Dec 15-16 |
63 |
34 |
3 |
2003 Dec 11-14 |
56 |
41 |
3 |
2003 Dec 5-7 |
55 |
43 |
2 |
2003 Nov 14-16 |
50 |
47 |
3 |
2003 Nov 10-12 |
51 |
45 |
4 |
2003 Nov 3-5 |
54 |
43 |
3 |
2003 Oct 24-26 |
53 |
42 |
5 |
2003 Oct 10-12 |
56 |
40 |
4 |
2003 Oct 6-8 |
55 |
42 |
3 |
2003 Sep 19-21 |
50 |
47 |
3 |
2003 Sep 8-10 |
52 |
43 |
5 |
2003 Aug 25-26 |
59 |
37 |
4 |
2003 Aug 4-6 |
60 |
36 |
4 |
2003 Jul 25-27 |
58 |
38 |
4 |
2003 Jul 18-20 |
59 |
38 |
3 |
2003 Jul 7-9 |
62 |
34 |
4 |
2003 Jun 27-29 |
61 |
36 |
3 |
2003 Jun 12-15 |
63 |
33 |
4 |
2003 Jun 9-10 |
62 |
34 |
4 |
2003 May 30-Jun 1 |
64 |
32 |
4 |
2003 May 19-21 |
66 |
30 |
4 |
2003 May 5-7 |
69 |
28 |
3 |
2003 Apr 22-23 |
70 |
26 |
4 |
2003 Apr 14-16 |
71 |
24 |
5 |
2003 Apr 7-9 |
69 |
26 |
5 |
2003 Apr 5-6 |
70 |
27 |
3 |
2003 Mar 29-30 |
71 |
26 |
3 |
2003 Mar 24-25 |
69 |
27 |
4 |
2003 Mar 22-23 |
71 |
25 |
4 |
2003 Mar 14-15 |
58 |
38 |
4 |
2003 Mar 3-5 |
57 |
37 |
6 |
2003 Feb 24-26 |
57 |
37 |
6 |
2003 Feb 17-19 |
58 |
37 |
5 |
2003 Feb 7-9 |
61 |
34 |
5 |
2003 Feb 3-6 |
59 |
35 |
6 |
2003 Jan 31-Feb 2 |
61 |
35 |
4 |
2003 Jan 23-25 |
60 |
36 |
4 |
2003 Jan 20-22 |
58 |
36 |
6 |
2003 Jan 13-16 |
61 |
34 |
5 |
2003 Jan 10-12 |
58 |
37 |
5 |
2003 Jan 3-5 |
63 |
32 |
5 |
|
Dis- |
No |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
2002 |
|||
2002 Dec 19-22 |
61 |
32 |
7 |
2002 Dec 16-17 |
63 |
33 |
4 |
2002 Dec 9-10 |
63 |
32 |
5 |
2002 Dec 5-8 |
64 |
29 |
7 |
2002 Nov 22-24 |
65 |
28 |
7 |
2002 Nov 11-14 |
66 |
26 |
8 |
2002 Nov 8-10 |
68 |
27 |
5 |
2002 Oct 31-Nov 3 |
63 |
29 |
8 |
2002 Oct 21-22 |
67 |
28 |
5 |
2002 Oct 14-17 |
62 |
31 |
7 |
2002 Oct 3-6 |
67 |
28 |
5 |
2002 Sep 23-26 |
68 |
26 |
6 |
2002 Sep 20-22 |
66 |
30 |
4 |
2002 Sep 13-16 |
70 |
26 |
4 |
2002 Sep 5-8 |
66 |
30 |
4 |
2002 Sep 2-4 |
66 |
29 |
5 |
2002 Aug 19-21 |
65 |
28 |
7 |
2002 Aug 5-8 |
68 |
26 |
6 |
2002 Jul 29-31 |
71 |
23 |
6 |
2002 Jul 26-28 |
69 |
26 |
5 |
2002 Jul 22-24 |
69 |
24 |
7 |
2002 Jul 9-11 |
73 |
21 |
6 |
2002 Jul 5-8 |
76 |
18 |
6 |
2002 Jun 28-30 |
76 |
19 |
5 |
2002 Jun 21-23 |
73 |
21 |
6 |
2002 Jun 17-19 |
74 |
20 |
6 |
2002 Jun 7-8 |
74 |
18 |
8 |
2002 Jun 3-6 |
70 |
23 |
7 |
2002 May 28-29 |
77 |
17 |
6 |
2002 May 20-22 |
76 |
17 |
7 |
2002 May 6-9 |
76 |
19 |
5 |
2002 Apr 29-May 1 |
77 |
20 |
3 |
2002 Apr 22-24 |
77 |
17 |
6 |
2002 Apr 8-11 |
75 |
20 |
5 |
2002 Apr 5-7 |
76 |
19 |
5 |
2002 Mar 22-24 |
79 |
17 |
4 |
2002 Mar 18-20 |
79 |
16 |
5 |
2002 Mar 8-9 |
80 |
14 |
6 |
2002 Mar 4-7 |
77 |
18 |
5 |
2002 Mar 1-3 |
81 |
14 |
5 |
2002 Feb 8-10 |
82 |
14 |
4 |
2002 Feb 4-6 |
82 |
14 |
4 |
2002 Jan 25-27 |
84 |
13 |
3 |
2002 Jan 11-14 |
83 |
13 |
4 |
2002 Jan 7-9 |
84 |
12 |
4 |
|
|
No |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
2001 |
|||
2001 Dec 14-16 |
86 |
11 |
3 |
2001 Dec 6-9 |
86 |
10 |
4 |
2001 Nov 26-27 |
87 |
8 |
5 |
2001 Nov 8-11 |
87 |
9 |
4 |
2001 Nov 2-4 |
87 |
9 |
4 |
2001 Oct 19-21 |
88 |
9 |
3 |
2001 Oct 11-14 |
89 |
8 |
3 |
2001 Oct 5-6 |
87 |
10 |
3 |
2001 Sep 21-22 |
90 |
6 |
4 |
2001 Sep 14-15 |
86 |
10 |
4 |
2001 Sep 7-10 |
51 |
39 |
10 |
2001 Aug 24-26 |
55 |
36 |
9 |
2001 Aug 16-19 |
57 |
34 |
9 |
2001 Aug 10-12 |
57 |
35 |
8 |
2001 Aug 3-5 |
55 |
35 |
10 |
2001 Jul 19-22 |
56 |
33 |
11 |
2001 Jul 10-11 |
57 |
35 |
8 |
2001 Jun 28-Jul 1 |
52 |
34 |
14 |
2001 Jun 11-17 |
55 |
33 |
12 |
2001 Jun 8-10 |
55 |
35 |
10 |
2001 May 18-20 |
56 |
36 |
8 |
2001 May 10-14 |
56 |
31 |
13 |
2001 May 7-9 |
53 |
33 |
14 |
2001 Apr 20-22 |
62 |
29 |
9 |
2001 Apr 6-8 |
59 |
30 |
11 |
2001 Mar 26-28 |
53 |
29 |
18 |
2001 Mar 9-11 |
58 |
29 |
13 |
2001 Mar 5-7 |
63 |
22 |
15 |
2001 Feb 19-21 |
62 |
21 |
17 |
2001 Feb 9-11 |
57 |
25 |
18 |
2001 Feb 1-4 |
57 |
25 |
18 |
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
|
|
Dis- |
No |
% |
% |
% |
|
2004 |
|||
2004 Feb 9-12 |
41 |
51 |
8 |
2004 Jan 12-15 |
48 |
45 |
7 |
2003 |
|||
2003 Dec 11-14 |
43 |
50 |
7 |
2003 Nov 3-5 |
43 |
51 |
6 |
2003 Oct 6-8 |
41 |
51 |
8 |
2003 Sep 8-10 |
40 |
53 |
7 |
2003 Aug 4-6 |
45 |
46 |
9 |
2003 Jul 7-9 |
49 |
45 |
6 |
2003 Jun 12-15 |
50 |
41 |
9 |
2003 May 5-7 |
49 |
44 |
7 |
2003 Apr 7-9 |
58 |
33 |
9 |
2003 Mar 3-5 |
48 |
44 |
8 |
2003 Feb 3-6 |
50 |
39 |
11 |
2003 Jan 13-16 |
49 |
40 |
11 |
2002 |
|||
2002 Dec 5-8 |
50 |
40 |
10 |
2002 Nov 11-14 |
47 |
39 |
14 |
2002 Oct 3-6 |
50 |
40 |
10 |
2002 Sep 5-8 |
52 |
40 |
8 |
2002 Aug 5-8 |
46 |
43 |
11 |
2002 Jul 26-28 |
53 |
36 |
11 |
2002 Jul 9-11 |
54 |
36 |
10 |
2002 Jun 3-6 |
52 |
38 |
10 |
2002 May 6-9 |
57 |
33 |
10 |
2002 Apr 8-11 |
57 |
34 |
9 |
2002 Mar 4-7 |
63 |
28 |
9 |
2002 Feb 4-6 |
62 |
28 |
10 |
2002 Jan 7-9 |
62 |
29 |
9 |
2001 |
|||
2001 Dec 6-9 |
72 |
19 |
9 |
2001 Nov 8-11 |
73 |
19 |
8 |
2001 Oct 11-14 |
84 |
10 |
6 |
2001 Sep 7-10 |
42 |
44 |
14 |
2001 Aug 16-19 |
50 |
37 |
13 |
2001 Aug 3-5 |
47 |
42 |
11 |
2001 Jul 19-22 |
49 |
37 |
14 |
2001 Jun 11-17 |
51 |
34 |
15 |
2001 May 10-14 |
49 |
34 |
17 |
2001 Apr 6-8 |
55 |
32 |
13 |
2001 Mar 5-7 |
55 |
28 |
17 |
2001 Feb 1-4 |
53 |
32 |
15 |
2001 Jan 10-14 |
50 |
40 |
10 |
3. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?
Satisfied |
Dis- |
No |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
2004 |
|||
2004 Feb 9-12 |
45 |
54 |
1 |
2004 Jan 12-15 |
46 |
53 |
1 |
2004 Jan 2-5 |
55 |
43 |
2 |
2003 |
|||
2003 Dec 11-14 |
50 |
48 |
2 |
2003 Nov 3-5 |
44 |
54 |
2 |
2003 Oct 6-8 |
41 |
57 |
2 |
2003 Sep 8-10 |
40 |
58 |
2 |
2003 Aug 4-6 |
46 |
52 |
2 |
2003 Jul 7-9 |
50 |
48 |
2 |
2003 Jun 12-15 |
47 |
51 |
2 |
2003 May 5-7 |
54 |
45 |
1 |
2003 Apr 7-9 |
55 |
41 |
4 |
2003 Mar 22-23 |
60 |
38 |
2 |
2003 Mar 3-5 |
36 |
61 |
3 |
2003 Feb 17-19 |
39 |
58 |
3 |
2003 Feb 3-6 |
40 |
58 |
2 |
2003 Jan 13-16 |
42 |
56 |
2 |
2002 |
|||
2002 Dec 5-8 |
46 |
51 |
3 |
2002 Nov 11-14 |
48 |
48 |
4 |
2002 Oct 31-Nov 3 |
48 |
47 |
5 |
2002 Oct 3-6 |
47 |
49 |
4 |
2002 Sep 5-8 |
47 |
51 |
2 |
2002 Aug 5-8 |
47 |
50 |
3 |
2002 Jul 26-28 |
48 |
49 |
3 |
2002 Jul 22-24 |
49 |
47 |
4 |
2002 Jul 9-11 |
49 |
48 |
3 |
2002 Jun 3-6 |
52 |
44 |
4 |
2002 May 6-9 |
56 |
40 |
4 |
2002 Apr 8-11 |
61 |
37 |
2 |
2002 Mar 4-7 |
61 |
37 |
2 |
2002 Feb 4-6 |
61 |
37 |
2 |
2002 Jan 7-9 |
65 |
32 |
3 |
2001 |
|||
2001 Dec 6-9 |
70 |
28 |
2 |
2001 Nov 8-11 |
65 |
33 |
2 |
2001 Oct 11-14 |
67 |
29 |
4 |
2001 Sep 14-15 |
61 |
36 |
3 |
2001 Sep 7-10 |
43 |
55 |
2 |
2001 Aug 16-19 |
48 |
49 |
3 |
2001 Jul 19-22 |
51 |
46 |
3 |
2001 Jun 11-17 |
51 |
46 |
3 |
2001 May 10-14 |
46 |
50 |
4 |
2001 Apr 6-8 |
50 |
47 |
3 |
2001 Mar 5-7 |
53 |
44 |
3 |
2001 Feb 1-4 |
51 |
45 |
4 |
2001 Jan 10-14 |
56 |
41 |
3 |