Kerry Leads Bush in Character Ratings

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- If John Kerry emerges as the Democratic nominee for president this year, his public persona has the potential to give him an important advantage over President Bush. According to a recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, Kerry's ratings on a variety of personal and leadership qualities are almost uniformly superior to Bush's. This advantage may be short-lived, however, in part because Kerry is still less widely known than Bush, and thus has garnered little in the way of negatives, and also because this poll was taken at a time when President Bush's overall standing was near the low point of his term in office (due in part to publicity surrounding the Democratic primaries).

Gallup asked Americans to evaluate Bush and Kerry separately on eight personal characteristics and qualities. When looking just at the percentage saying a variety of characteristics "apply" to each man, the Feb. 16-17 survey found registered voters giving Bush and Kerry nearly identical ratings for their sharing of voters' values, their ability to stand up to special-interest groups, and for having a clear plan to solve the country's problems. But when factoring in the percentage saying each of these qualities does not apply to each man, Kerry outshines Bush. In other words, the ratio of favorables to unfavorables is significantly higher for Kerry on these dimensions than it is for Bush.

Kerry has higher ratings than Bush on several other dimensions: holding positions on the issues that Americans agree with, being honest and trustworthy, and having done his duty in Vietnam. Interestingly, despite Kerry's large lead over Bush on the Vietnam issue, Bush retains top billing as the candidate more likely to be seen as having strong moral character. This is Bush's strongest quality emerging from the poll. Bush also holds his own with Kerry as being a strong and decisive leader.

The Basic Ratings

Out of the eight personal characteristics and qualities, a majority of Americans say that four of these apply to President Bush; having "strong moral character" is his strongest quality. Nearly three quarters of Americans (72%) believe this applies to Bush, and only a quarter disagree.

Bush is seen as a strong and decisive leader by a two-to-one margin, 65% vs. 33%, and is more likely than not to be viewed as honest and trustworthy and as sharing respondents' values.

His scores for several other qualities -- his positions on the issues, standing up to special-interest groups, and doing his duty in Vietnam -- break about even. Bush is rated less well for having a clear plan for solving the country's problems.

Kerry's top attribute, according to the poll, is his service in Vietnam. Two-thirds of Americans believe he did his duty for the country in Vietnam, while only 11% disagree. This contrasts sharply with Bush; only 42% of Americans say that the attribute "did his duty for the country during the Vietnam War" applies to Bush, while 40% disagree.

But aside from this one item, the rank order of Kerry's qualities is very similar to that of Bush. His moral character, honesty, leadership strength, and sharing of respondents' values all have high rankings. Standing up to special interests and having a clear plan for the country are his weakest points.

Apart from the gaps in Bush's and Kerry's ratings on these measures, the results show that both candidates are viewed positively for their moral character, leadership strength, honesty, and values. Less than half the public believes that each stands up to special interests or has a clear plan for addressing the nation's problems at this point.

Net Ratings

An important difference between Bush's and Kerry's ratings is that Americans are much more likely to have formed an opinion about Bush -- saying each quality applies or doesn't apply to him. By contrast, Americans are much more likely to say they have no opinion of Kerry on each dimension, and are commensurately less likely to offer a negative assessment of him.

One way to express this difference is the use of net scores. This is the percentage saying that each quality "applies" minus the percentage saying each "doesn't apply."

Using this calculation as the basis for computing the gap between Bush's and Kerry's ratings clearly shows the advantage Kerry has over Bush on these dimensions today. Bush's only strength over Kerry is for having strong moral character, on which he leads Kerry by seven points. The two candidates tie (net 33% for Kerry vs. 32% for Bush) on the perception that each is a strong and decisive leader. For all other major presidential qualities rated, however, Kerry has a sizable lead, ranging from 12 to 25 points. And for the specific issue of Vietnam service that has been raised in this election, Kerry has a commanding lead of 55 points.

Kerry's ratings will almost inevitably change as he becomes better known, and as Republicans gear up their efforts to criticize him and to publicly define him in their own terms before his image is firmly set in the minds of the public.

Given Kerry's sudden emergence as the Democratic frontrunner, it is not surprising to find that public familiarity with Kerry is quite different from familiarity with the eventual nominees in each of the last two presidential campaigns. Using this same measure to test the public personas of George W. Bush and Al Gore in March 2000 and Bill Clinton and Bob Dole in March 1996 Gallup found that the percentage of Americans responding "no opinion" about all four candidates was generally in the single digits, much different from the double-digit "no opinion" figures seen for Kerry today.

Additional Findings

• As would be expected, the 2004 candidate ratings are highly partisan. But despite the tendency of Democrats to deny that positive attributes are associated with Bush, and of Republicans to deny that positive attributes are associated with Kerry, a majority of Democrats (52%) say Bush has strong moral character. A majority of Republicans (60%) say Kerry did his duty for the country in Vietnam.

• Veterans (those who have personally served in the U.S. military) are not much different from non-veterans in their views of Bush's and Kerry's Vietnam service. Forty-five percent of veterans, compared with 39% of non-veterans, say Bush did his duty in Vietnam. For Kerry, 75% of veterans think he did his duty, compared with 64% of non-veterans.

• Some of Bush's image ratings today have changed slightly compared with where they stood when he first took office. Four of the current personality dimensions were measured in a February 2001 Gallup Poll. Since then, the percentage viewing Bush as honest and trustworthy, as sharing their values, and as agreeing with them on the issues has declined by five to nine points. The percentage viewing him as a strong and decisive leader has increased slightly (up four points).

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,006 adults, aged 18 years and older, conducted Feb. 16-17, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

8. Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to George W. Bush. How about -- [ROTATED]?

A. Is honest and trustworthy

B. Shares your values

C. Did his duty for the country during the Vietnam War

D. Generally agrees with you on issues you care about

E. Has strong moral character

F. Has a clear plan for solving this country's problems

G. Stands up to special interest groups

H. Is a strong and decisive leader

9. Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each applies or doesn't apply to John Kerry. How about -- [ROTATED]?

A. Is honest and trustworthy

B. Shares your values

C. Did his duty for the country during the Vietnam War

D. Generally agrees with you on issues you care about

E. Has strong moral character

F. Has a clear plan for solving this country's problems

G. Stands up to special interest groups

H. Is a strong and decisive leader