The transfer of power in Iraq is now a fait accompli. Is this going to make a big difference in American public opinion?
It certainly has the potential to make a big difference.
The good news for the Bush administration: 75% of Americans favor the turnover to civilian authority in Iraq. Fifty-four percent say that the transfer of government authority to the Iraqis will improve the situation in that country.
The not-so-good news: 60% of Americans believe that the turnover is happening because the U.S. policy to restore stability to Iraq is failing.
Besides, it's not the actual turnover itself that is so important, but the way the images of what is happening in Iraq play out over the next weeks and months. Americans have become fairly negative about the entire situation in that country. For the first time, a majority of Americans (54%) say that U.S. military involvement in Iraq was a mistake. Plus, since early May a majority of Americans have been saying that the war in Iraq was not worth it. These numbers could potentially turn around if Americans see news reports of Iraqis proudly embracing their own self-rule, with a concomitant decrease in deadly insurgent attacks.
Is Iraq going to be the defining issue in this fall's election -- as the Vietnam War was in 1968, for example?
There is no question that Iraq is going to be a factor in the coming election. About a fourth of Americans think that Iraq is America's number-one problem. Iraq dominates the news and is a major part of both presidential candidates' campaign rhetoric.
But exactly how important Iraq will be remains to be seen. This is an extremely partisan war -- in essence "Bush's war." A huge percentage of Republicans support it, while the percentage of Democrats opposing it is just as high. Sixteen percent of Republicans say the war was a mistake, compared to 82% of Democrats and 61% of independents.
The war will be less important on Election Day if trouble in Iraq dies down between now and then, and if it appears that the new Iraqi self-rule is beginning to work. The issue will be more important the more trouble there is.
You advocate leaders paying attention to the polls. If he listens to the people, just what should George W. Bush do right now in relationship to Iraq?
There is no groundswell of opinion yet that the United States should immediately remove all troops from Iraq, but Americans clearly want the troops to come home within a year or so.
Our latest Gallup Poll on the subject, conducted June 3-6, found that 27% of Americans advocate removing all troops. Another 23% support withdrawing some troops, 30% want to keep things as they are, and 18% advocate sending in more troops.
A Pew Research Center poll recently found that 51% of Americans want to keep troops in Iraq, while 44% want the United States to bring its troops home as soon as possible. A Harris Interactive poll found that 56% favor bringing troops home in the next year. And the June 21-23 Gallup Poll shows that 40% feel the United States should keep troops in Iraq for less than a year, and another 30% say that troops should be there only one to two years.
Is it fair to assume that the economy is the other major issue in the election?
Yes. We don't need much more of a reminder of how important the economy will be in the coming election than the results of our latest Gallup Poll. We asked Americans to indicate which of three roles for the president they believe is most important: (1) "being commander in chief of the military," (2) "handling the economy," or (3) "managing the federal government."
The results? Forty-one percent of Americans say that "handling the economy" should be the most important role of the president, followed by 32% who say "managing the federal government," and only 23% who (even in this time of war) choose "being commander in chief of the military."
Is this role as "economist in chief" what the Founding Fathers intended?
I don't think so. If this question had been asked of the Founding Fathers, I think the "handling the economy" choice would have come in dead last. One of the first things the Founders say about the presidency in Article II of the Constitution is that the president "shall be commander in chief of the Army and Navy of the United States." The Founders go on to say that the president's role is to assess the opinions of the heads of the executive departments, grant reprieves and pardons, make treaties, nominate ambassadors and judges, and so forth.
But nowhere in the Constitution does it say that one of the president's main duties is to handle the economy. Indeed, the Founders who wrote the Constitution went to some pains to point out that Congress "shall have power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises, to pay the debts and provide for the common defence and general welfare of the United States," and "to borrow money on the credit of the United States."
Has Bush lost his signature strength on perceived ability to handle terrorism, as some polls have suggested?
No. Bush's ratings on terrorism have been steady over the last several months. The latest Gallup Poll shows that Bush's approval rating on handling terrorism is 54% -- not too different from three other Gallup Polls conducted in May and early June. Bush also is chosen over John Kerry as better able to handle terrorism by a 14 percentage-point margin, while Kerry ties Bush on perceived ability to handle the situation in Iraq. Kerry wins by 13 percentage points on the economy.
Let's turn now to the expletive controversy. Last week, there was a lot of attention paid to the well-documented fact that Vice President Dick Cheney used a profane expression on the Senate floor. Is this likely to have some impact on the way the public sees Cheney?
Like Captain Renault's tongue-in-cheek reaction to the gambling in Rick's Place in the movie Casablanca, Americans profess to be "shocked, shocked" by foul language when they hear it. We haven't asked about swearing by politicians, but a February Gallup Poll asked Americans if they personally are offended "by profanity or swear words you hear on television." Amazingly, 58% said yes.
However, Cheney's image is already quite polarized. The latest Gallup Poll reading on Cheney is from February, when he received a relatively anemic 45% favorable and 42% unfavorable rating. A more recent Harris Interactive poll shows Cheney with a 42% "excellent"/"pretty good" rating and a 49% "only fair"/"poor" rating -- not greatly changed from last fall.
The key question is whether or not conservatives and religious Republicans may be turned off by their candidate's use of vulgar language. But it is doubtful that this group would be so disillusioned that they would end up voting for Kerry or Ralph Nader.
The Bush campaign spent a great deal of money on ads portraying Kerry in a negative light. Did they work?
Based on our most recent Gallup Poll measures, the negative ads and negative commentary by Bush surrogates on the campaign trail have not had a major deleterious impact on Kerry's image. Kerry's favorable rating -- 58% in the June 21-23 Gallup Poll -- is actually up slightly from March and April, and is also higher than Bush's 53% favorable rating. Kerry has a 35% unfavorable rating compared to Bush's 45%.
The only sign that the Bush campaign's efforts to define a negative image for Kerry have worked is the comparison of Kerry's current favorability numbers to his February numbers. At that time, he had a 60% favorable rating and a 26% unfavorable rating.
There are about four months to go before the election. Quit beating around the bush, so to speak. Who is going to win?
Unknown. At this point in the election year, Bush is more vulnerable than winning presidential incumbents over the last 50 years have been. His job approval rating is below 50%, and he has been behind Kerry among registered voters in a number of Gallup Polls this spring and early summer. Thus, his re-election is by no means assured.
On the other hand, Bush is certainly not in the dire straits in which his father and Jimmy Carter found themselves in June of their re-election years.
From this point on, the election is going to pivot on several key factors, including most immediately how well Kerry comes across over the next 30 days as he announces his vice presidential choice, and as he occupies center stage during the Boston convention at the end of July.
Bill Clinton's memoir My Life and Michael Moore's documentary Fahrenheit 9/11 have both had very strong openings. What does that tell us?
For one thing, of course, the success of both of these enterprises shows the power of massive publicity concentrated in a short period of time. Clinton and Moore took advantage of every possible television venue to publicize their creative efforts, and the payoffs have been obvious.
The more enduring question is just what permanent effect either Clinton's book or Fahrenheit 9/11 will have on the fundamental way that Americans look at the world around them, and hence, the way they vote in the election.
We asked Americans in our recent June 21-23 poll if they intended to read Clinton's book. Not surprisingly, those who say they definitely or probably will read it are those most likely to have supported Clinton while he was in office: minorities, Democrats, liberals, Easterners, and those who disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job as president. Indeed, 48% of Democrats plan to read the book, compared to 13% of Republicans. Forty-five percent of those who disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job as president say they will read the book, compared to just 16% of those who approve of the way he is handling his job.
We haven't asked any questions about the Moore movie, so we have no knowledge yet of the extent to which it is doing more than just preaching to the already anti-Bush choir.
It's widely expected that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan will announce an increase in interest rates on Wednesday. Monday, the New York Times headlined an article, "Families, Deep in Debt, Facing Pain of Growing Interest Rates." Is it going to be that painful for Americans?
Possibly. A healthy percentage of Americans carry debt on their credit cards every month, and many also have some type of home equity loan or line of credit that could be adversely affected by an increase in interest rates.
But the expected rate increase will come as no surprise to Americans. In May and June, Gallup's monthly economic updates showed a jump in the percentage of Americans who think interest rates will go up over the next six months. Between two-thirds and three-quarters of Americans now expect both interest rates and inflation to go up.
Could the specter of increasing interest rates be causing economic anxiety?
I think it's possible that worries about increasing interest rates and prices could be dampening positive attitudes about the economy. In Gallup's early June poll, we had just about as many Americans saying the economy was getting worse as said it was getting better -- not a very bright picture. Part of this negativity could be due to inflation worries.
Still, Gallup's June 21-23 poll did show an uptick in approval of Bush's handling of the economy, from 41% to 47%.