Kerry Versus Bush on Issues and Characteristics: Pre- and Post-Convention

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- National polls conducted after last week's Democratic National Convention clearly indicate that Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry gained little in the way of voter support for his presidential bid as a result of the convention. But did Kerry at least make some headway with Americans in the image department -- perhaps improving his public persona, or building public confidence in his ability to fulfill the duties of president?

Among all national adults, the answer to that question is yes. Kerry's image and issue ratings did show some improvement in the period spanning the convention.

Kerry saw at least modest gains among all national adults across a series of eight personal characteristics and qualities tested before and after the convention. Gallup found increases of four points or more in the percentages of Americans choosing Kerry over Bush in five of the areas: caring about the needs of "people like you," being a "person you admire," having an optimistic vision for the country's future, being honest and trustworthy, and being a strong and decisive leader. The percentage of Americans choosing Bush went up on three of the dimensions, stayed the same on three, and dropped on two others.

The overall result: on every dimension except "shares your values," Kerry's net position among national adults was better after the convention than before.

Similarly, Kerry gained positioning among national adults on four of the five issue dimensions tested pre- and post-convention. Bush either stayed the same or lost slightly, meaning that -- again -- Kerry ended up in a better position on four of the five issues vis à vis Bush than was the case before the convention.

As noted in the two charts above, Kerry gained modestly on Bush on the basic two-way ballot among national adults during the week of the convention -- going from a 48% to 46% lead before the convention to a 50% to 46% lead afterward.

So, overall, the convention's net result was slightly favorable for Kerry, both on the ballot and on specific issue and image dimensions, among the general adult population of Americans.

But not all Americans vote. Most analyses of the electorate in a pre-election environment focus on the smaller sample of Americans who are registered to vote, or the still smaller sample of those deemed most likely to vote.

And within these groups of voters, Kerry's convention gains essentially disappear. In overall voter preferences for president, Kerry's pre-convention lead over Bush of 49% to 45% among registered voters became a 48%-48% tie after the convention. Among likely voters, Kerry went from a 49% to 47% lead before the convention to a 51% to 47% deficit after the convention. In short, when the sample is restricted to those actually most likely to vote, the pattern becomes one in which Bush gained somewhat (although within the margin of error).

Thus, it is not surprising to find that many of Kerry's gains on the personal characteristics and issues also disappear when looking at the subset of Americans who are either registered or most likely to vote in November.

As noted, it is on the basis of these registered voters and likely voters that the Bush-Kerry horse race is almost always being measured. So -- all in all -- among those who matter most in this election, Kerry did not make the kind of headway that he might have hoped for -- either in terms of his horse-race ballot positioning, or in terms of voters' perceptions of his personal qualities or positions on the issues.

Registered Voters

As the table below shows, there was very little change in registered voters' perceptions of the two candidates on five major issues. In other words, among registered voters, the convention had essentially no impact either way on the perceptions of the two major-party candidates' strengths on key issues.

In terms of the relative positioning of the two major candidates among registered voters, Gallup observed a somewhat different pattern in the pre- and post-convention measures on the eight characteristic and quality dimensions. Both Kerry and Bush recorded small gains among registered voters as a result of the convention (meaning that fewer registered voters remained undecided on their choice of candidate on these dimensions after the convention). Kerry's net gain was positive on four of the dimensions, he stayed constant compared to Bush on one characteristic, and he lost positioning on the other three.

Although pre- to post-convention, Kerry lost four points on the basic ballot margin among registered voters, he did gain slightly in terms of voters' choice of him over Bush on four characteristics ("cares about the needs of people like you," "has an optimistic vision for the country's future," "is a person you admire," and "is a strong and decisive leader").

But these are obviously not major gains, so it seems fair to say that among registered voters, all in all, the relative pre- and post-convention positioning of Bush and Kerry on these characteristics remains similar. Kerry retains superior positioning on "cares about the needs of people like you." The two candidates are roughly equal in terms of being a person the voters admire, being perceived as honest and trustworthy, having the ability to manage government effectively, and sharing the voters' values. Bush retains a significant advantage in terms of "does not change his positions on issues for political reasons" and being "a strong and decisive leader."

Likely Voters

There's a somewhat different picture in terms of the pre- and post-convention measures of likely voters.

As noted above, the overall pool of likely voters became more supportive of Bush during the course of the convention. The data suggest that the convention in some ways had the paradoxical impact of increasing enthusiasm among Republicans, therefore activating their support for Bush.

Thus, it is not surprising to find that perceptions of the two candidates among likely voters on the issues tended to follow suit (i.e., that Bush gained on Kerry):

As can be seen, Kerry lost ground on all issues in relation to Bush among likely voters over the course of the convention.

For example, Kerry was eight points ahead of Bush on the economy prior to the convention among likely voters, but ended up one point behind in the post-convention likely voter sample. He similarly lost positioning relative to Bush on each of the other four issues, and the picture after the convention is one in which Bush leads Kerry on each of the issues among likely voters -- with the single exception of healthcare.

There is a similar pattern in terms of likely voters' choice of either Kerry or Bush on personal characteristics and qualities. Bush gained on all but one of the dimensions. Kerry gained minimally on three, lost slightly on four, and remained the same on one.

The net impact: Kerry lost the most positioning to Bush in terms of "shares your values," and also lost in terms of "is honest and trustworthy," "can manage the government effectively," and "does not change his positions." Among this likely voter sample, in no instance but one ("is a strong and decisive leader") did Kerry end up in a better post-convention position vis à vis Bush.

In short, Kerry lost six points in terms of the trial-ballot margin against Bush among likely voters during the time period that included the Democratic convention, and he similarly lost positioning on every dimension except "strong and decisive leader" during this same time.

In Summary

This analysis highlights the importance of comparing and contrasting patterns of change between surveys among the same sample groups. There is a good deal of internal consistency in the data when one does so. Kerry gained slightly on the ballot as well as his image and issue positioning against Bush among all national adults. He lost slightly on the ballot among registered voters, while gaining a little or maintaining similar positioning in relation to Bush on image and issues. Kerry lost a little more ground on the ballot against Bush among likely voters, and lost ground on most image and issue dimensions among this group as well.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,518 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 30-Aug. 1, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 1,129 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. The "likely voter" model assumes a turnout of 55% of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 1,366 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. The economy

B. The situation in Iraq

C. Terrorism

D. Healthcare

E. Taxes

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to John Kerry or more to George W. Bush. How about --[RANDOM ORDER]?

A. Can manage the government effectively

B. Cares about the needs of people like you

C. Is a strong and decisive leader

D. Is a person you admire

E. Has an optimistic vision for the country's future

F. Is honest and trustworthy

G. Does not change his positions on issues for political reasons

H. Shares your values