Bush Gets Post-Election Bounce

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's job approval is now at 53%, up from 48% measured just before the election. A post-election bounce is typical for presidents, whether re-elected or not. Perhaps the cessation of hostilities between the two major candidates at the end of the campaign season influences people to be more positive, seeing their candidate as either graciously accepting defeat or basking in victory.

This week, before Gallup had the new Bush approval numbers available, Assistant Gallup Poll Editor Joseph Carroll reported on the history of post-election bounces (see "Will Bush Get a Post-Election Bounce?" in Related Items), showing that the average post-election bounce for all presidents since 1940 is +6 points. The average for re-elected presidents is higher (+7 points) than for defeated incumbents (+4 points). The high average for re-elected presidents is influenced by the 30-point bounce that President Harry S. Truman received, by far the largest post-election bounce ever measured. However, the last pre-election measure for Truman was taken in June 1948 and the post-election measure not taken until the following January. It is possible that Truman's approval rating just prior to the election was higher than the June reading, and if so, would reduce the size of the post-election bounce.

If only the presidents since Dwight Eisenhower are included, when the post-election polls were taken shortly after the election, the results show four incumbent presidents getting a positive bounce (Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon, and Eisenhower), while one, Lyndon Johnson, got a negative bounce. Clinton's post-election bounce was +4 points, from 54% to 58%; Reagan's was +3 points, from 58% to 61%; Nixon's was +6 points, from 56% to 62%; and Eisenhower's was +7 points, from 68% to 75%. Johnson's approval was 74% in June before the election and 70% in November after the election, so his four-point decline was not a major problem. Thus, Bush's bounce is just above the average of those presidents.

The increase in Bush's approval rating comes primarily from 1) a slight increase in the number of people who identify as Republicans (+4 percentage points), and 2) more Democrats and independents saying they approve of Bush's job performance after the election than before. More than 9 in 10 Republicans approved before and after the election.

Bush Approval on Issues

The poll shows little change in Bush's approval ratings on issues now, compared with his approval before the election. Terrorism, Iraq, and the economy were all included in the Oct. 14-16 poll, providing the best measures of the pre- and post-election changes. Foreign affairs and healthcare policy ratings also show little change, though the pre-election measures were not close to the election.

As was the case throughout the campaign, Bush receives his greatest support on his handling of terrorism (up three percentage points from the pre-election measure), while less than a majority of Americans approve of the way he is handling Iraq, the economy, foreign affairs, and healthcare policy.

Bounce Does Not Carry Over to Congress, General Feelings About Country

The poll shows that 41% of Americans approve of the way Congress is handling its job, essentially the same as the 40% measured in an Oct. 11-14 survey.

There has been little change in this measure since last February, with approval varying only from 40% to 43% over the past 10 months.

Though Republicans control both houses of Congress and the GOP picked up seats in both the House and the Senate, approval for Congress among Republicans is only 67%, compared with a 92% approval rating for Bush among Republicans. Democrats, in contrast, give Congress a rating that is closer to the rating they give Bush -- 21% approval for Congress, 16% for Bush.

Satisfaction with the way things are going in the country also has not changed since before the election. Overall, 44% are satisfied with the way things are going the country, 54% are dissatisfied. Those numbers are essentially the same as those measured right before the election, with 44% satisfied and 53% dissatisfied.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,016 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Nov. 7-10, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.