Investor Optimism Up in West, Down in Other Regions

The S&P 500 rose 9% in the fourth quarter of 2004, accounting for nearly all of the increase over the course of the entire year. In fact, it wasn't until after a slight dip in October 2004 that the stock market rallied to finish the year on a strong note. 

Nevertheless, early returns in 2005 have not been promising, which may or may not be surprising to most investors. After the late rally last year, the UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism -- which tracks investors' optimism about their personal investment situations and the national economic situation -- increased only modestly in November after a dismal October, and markedly in December. The poorer showings in two months of the quarter may help explain why investor optimism shows a decline in most regions of the United States in the fourth quarter of 2004*.

Western Region

Of the four geographic regions -- East, South, Midwest, and West -- the West is the only region in which investor optimism rose in the fourth quarter. In the West, the overall Index score rose 10 points, from 75 to 85 -- its highest point since the first quarter of 2004.

Western investors' outlooks regarding their personal investment situations inched upward to 64 in the fourth quarter, mostly unchanged from the prior two quarters. But the Index's Economic Dimension, which measures investor optimism about the country's overall economic situation, increased more substantially from 12 in the third quarter to 21 in the fourth.

Southern Region

The overall Index score dipped again in the South, from 101 to 96 -- its lowest point since the third quarter of 2003. Despite the decline, Southern investors held the most optimistic overall view of the four regions in the fourth quarter.

The Personal Dimension dropped four points among Southern investors in the fourth quarter, from 74 to 70. The score on the Economic Dimension was similar to the prior quarter, essentially unchanged at 26.

Midwestern Region

Optimism in the Midwest hit an all-year low in the fourth quarter. The overall score sunk 20 points in that region, from 77 in the third quarter to 57 in the fourth quarter, the lowest since the third quarter of 2003.

In the Midwest, the Index's Personal Dimension fell 12 points to 46. The Economic Dimension of the Index dropped nine points, from 19 to 10.

Eastern Region

In the East, the overall investor optimism score plunged 22 points in the fourth quarter, from 52 to 30. Optimism in this region fell to its lowest point since the first quarter of 2003.  

The Personal Dimension declined 12 points among investors in the East from 45 to 33 between the third and fourth quarters, also its lowest point since the beginning of 2003. The Economic Dimension sank into negative territory from 7 to -4, its lowest mark in more than a year.

*Results are based on telephone interviews with more than 800 investors nationwide, aged 18 and older, conducted monthly since January 2000. For quarterly results based on these total samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Each region consisted of at least 358 interviews per quarter. For quarterly regional results based on these total samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

Gallup identifies these states as "East": Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware

Gallup identifies these states as "Midwest": Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas

Gallup identifies these states as "South": Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Maryland, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia

Gallup identifies these states as "West": Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, California, Oregon, and Washington