GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- According to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll, conducted September 17-19, Al Gore leads George W. Bush among likely voters in the presidential contest by six percentage points, 49% to 43%. The race has been remarkably stable over the past week and a half, beginning with the September 8-10 results, with Gore's lead averaging just over six points and varying within the narrow range of four to eight points.
Gore's lead has emerged slowly. After the GOP convention and before the Democratic convention, Gore trailed Bush by 17 points, 54% to 37%. In two polls taken after the Democratic convention, Gore and Bush were essentially tied at an average level of 46% support. In the first few days of September, the race remained competitive, with Gore barely ahead of Bush by an average of about 2-3 percentage points. The lead expanded to 6-7 points by the end of that week and has remained steady since then.
Conservative Democrats, Moderate Republicans and
Independents Key to Gore's Lead
There are a number of ways of breaking the electorate into segments
to help understand patterns of change in the presidential race. The
most valuable is usually to analyze voters based on variables that
are highly predictive of the vote, such as party affiliation and
political ideology. When initially asked their party affiliation,
about 38% of likely voters say they are Democrats, 34% Republicans,
and 28% independents. When independents are then asked if they
"lean" towards one party or the other, most say yes -- so that 11%
of all likely voters are those who lean to the Democratic Party and
10% who lean to the Republican Party, leaving 7% of the likely
electorate who say they are independents who do not lean toward
either party. (It is important to note that party affiliation is
not a fixed orientation for many Americans, and the number who
identify with each of the two major parties varies even over short
time periods.)
Political ideology is the other major partisan measure that correlates with voter preferences, and according to the tracking polls since Labor Day, 42% of likely voters consider themselves conservative, 41% moderate, and 17% liberal.
One useful way to analyze voter preferences is to combine party affiliation and political ideology to form the six following groups: conservative Republicans (constituting 27% of the likely electorate), moderate/liberal Republicans (17%), independents who do not lean to either party (7%), conservative Democrats (13%), moderate Democrats (23%), and liberal Democrats (13%). There are too few liberal Republicans to break them out from moderate Republicans, so the two groups are treated together. And there are too few independents to divide them by political ideology.
With these groups in mind, we can look at the patterns of change that have occurred over the past several weeks. One key to Gore's resurgence in late August, after the Democratic convention, was his increased support among both Democrats and Republicans, as well as an increase in the proportion of Democrats included in the likely electorate. Note in the table that after the Democratic convention, Gore's support increased among both groups of Republicans and among two of the three groups of Democrats -- the moderate and liberal Democrats. His support actually declined slightly among conservative Democrats and independents.
|
Gore lead (%) |
(%) |
Change in Gore lead -- before and after Democratic convention (%) |
Gore lead (%) |
Change in Gore lead since Labor Day (%) |
|
|
Conservative Republican |
-91.1 |
-86.0 |
+ 5.1 |
-87.7 |
- 1.7 |
|
Mod/Lib Republican |
-80.4 |
-74.2 |
+ 6.0 |
-63.4 |
+10.9 |
|
Independent--no lean |
-15.0 |
-18.4 |
- 3.4 |
+ 8.0 |
+26.4 |
|
Conservative Democrat |
+53.9 |
+52.6 |
- 1.3 |
+63.9 |
+11.3 |
|
Moderate Democrat |
+76.3 |
+82.5 |
+ 6.2 |
+83.9 |
+ 1.4 |
|
Liberal Democrat |
+78.5 |
+90.3 |
+11.8 |
+84.0 |
- 5.7 |
At that stage of the campaign, right before Labor Day, Gore and Bush were essentially tied. Since Labor Day, however, Gore's lead has gradually increased to an average of about six percentage points. The second shaded column shows that the vice president's increased support comes mostly from conservative Democrats, moderate-to-liberal Republicans, and independents. Liberal and moderate Democrats and conservative Republicans show relatively little change in support.
After the Democratic convention, conservative Democrats -- who represent about one in eight likely voters -- supported Gore by 73% to 20%, a 53-point lead that was not much different from what Gore enjoyed before the Democratic convention. But since Labor Day, conservative Democrats have increased their support for Gore by 11 percentage points, so that he now enjoys a 64-point lead over Bush among these voters, 78% to 14%. Similarly, Gore has gained among independents, who represent about 7% of the electorate. Before and after the Democratic convention, these voters supported Bush by 15 to 18 percentage points, but since Labor Day they have supported Gore by a margin of eight percentage points -- a net swing of about 26 percentage points. Moderate Republicans have shown a similar swing toward Gore. Although they still favor Bush by 63 percentage points, that margin is down from the 74-point lead they gave Bush after the Democratic convention.
Note that conservative Republicans and moderate Democrats show little change, less than two percentage points, while liberal Democrats show a net decline of about six percentage points. These are very small changes compared with those found among the other voting groups.
A comparison of voter preferences since Labor Day with voter preferences right after the GOP convention and before the Democratic convention, when Gore trailed Bush by 17 points, shows that Gore has gained among all six voter groups. His increased support today is not just the result of "consolidating his base of support" (i.e., his party voters), but rather the result of his increased appeal among all groups of voters -- though the increase is smallest among conservative Republicans.
Survey Methods
Current results in this report are based on telephone interviews with 678 likely voters, aged 18+, conducted September 17-19, 2000. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Results since Labor Day are based on an aggregated sample of 3,382 likely voters over a two-week period. The margin of error for this sample is +/- 2 percentage points.
Likely voters are determined among a national sample of adults according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. Gallup's current likely voter estimation for 2000 assumes that 50% of the voting age population (VAP) will turn out to vote. (In 1996, turnout among the VAP was 49%. The average turnout rate in all presidential elections since 1980 is approximately 52%.)
Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore and Joe Lieberman as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster as the Reform Party candidates, and Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke as the Green Party candidates. Would you vote for -- [RANDOM ORDER: Al Gore and Joe Lieberman, the Democrats, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicancandidates, Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster, the Reform Party candidates, (or) Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke, the Green Party candidates]?
As of today do you lean toward Gore and Lieberman, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, Buchanan and Foster, the Reform Party candidates, or Nader and LaDuke, the Green Party candidates?
|
Gore/ |
Bush/ |
Buchanan/ |
Nader/ |
OTHER |
No |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
|
Likely Voters |
|||||||
|
2000 Sep 8-10 |
49 |
42 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
|
|
2000 Sep 7-9 |
47 |
44 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
|
|
2000 Sep 6-8 |
45 |
46 |
1 |
2 |
* |
6 |
|
|
2000 Sep 5-7 |
46 |
43 |
1 |
3 |
* |
7 |
|
|
2000 Sep 4-6 |
47 |
44 |
* |
3 |
* |
6 |
|
|
2000 Aug 24-27 |
45 |
46 |
1 |
3 |
* |
5 |
|
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
47 |
46 |
2 |
3 |
* |
2 |
|
|
2000 Aug 11-12 † |
39 |
55 |
* |
2 |
* |
4 |
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
37 |
54 |
1 |
4 |
* |
4 |
|
|
2000 Jul 25-26 ^ |
39 |
50 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
|
|
2000 Jul 14-16 |
43 |
45 |
3 |
5 |
* |
4 |
|
|
2000 Jun 23-25 |
38 |
50 |
2 |
6 |
0 |
4 |
|
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
41 |
46 |
2 |
6 |
* |
5 |
|
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
41 |
47 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2000 Sep 8-10 |
49 |
40 |
1 |
3 |
* |
7 |
|
|
2000 Sep 7-9 |
47 |
41 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
2000 Sep 6-8 |
46 |
43 |
1 |
2 |
* |
8 |
|
|
2000 Sep 5-7 |
46 |
42 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
|
|
2000 Sep 4-6 |
47 |
41 |
1 |
3 |
* |
8 |
|
|
2000 Aug 24-27 |
48 |
41 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
6 |
|
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
48 |
44 |
1 |
3 |
* |
4 |
|
|
2000 Aug 11-12 † |
40 |
50 |
* |
3 |
* |
7 |
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
35 |
54 |
1 |
4 |
* |
6 |
|
|
2000 Jul 25-26 ^ |
41 |
46 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
|
|
2000 Jul 14-16 |
41 |
43 |
3 |
6 |
* |
7 |
|
|
2000 Jun 23-25 |
40 |
47 |
3 |
6 |
0 |
4 |
|
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
42 |
43 |
3 |
5 |
* |
7 |
|
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
41 |
43 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
^ Vice presidential candidates Cheney and LaDuke included on ballot beginning July 25-26, 2000 |
|||||||
|
† Vice presidential candidates Lieberman and Foster included on ballot beginning August 11-12, 2000 |
|||||||
(Non-Gore voters) Is there any chance you would vote for Al Gore in the November election or is there no chance whatsoever that you would vote for him?
(Non-Bush voters)Is there any chance you would vote for George W. Bush in the November election or is there no chance whatsoever that you would vote for him?
GORE VOTER GROUP SUMMARY:
|
Strong |
Weak |
Potential |
No chance |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely Voters |
||||
|
2000 Sep 8-10 |
39 |
10 |
14 |
37 |
|
2000 Sep 7-9 |
38 |
9 |
17 |
36 |
|
2000 Aug 24-27 |
37 |
10 |
13 |
40 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
39 |
10 |
9 |
42 |
|
2000 Aug 11-12 |
30 |
10 |
13 |
47 |
|
2000 Apr 7-9 |
30 |
11 |
17 |
42 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
34 |
9 |
15 |
42 |
|
2000 Jan 17-19 |
29 |
12 |
14 |
45 |
|
2000 Jan 7-10 |
32 |
11 |
13 |
44 |
BUSH VOTER GROUP SUMMARY:
|
Strong |
Weak |
Potential |
No chance |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely Voters |
||||
|
2000 Sep 8-10 |
34 |
8 |
15 |
43 |
|
2000 Sep 7-9 |
34 |
9 |
15 |
42 |
|
2000 Aug 24-27 |
39 |
9 |
14 |
38 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
42 |
7 |
11 |
40 |
|
2000 Aug 11-12 |
46 |
10 |
14 |
30 |
|
2000 Apr 7-9 |
39 |
11 |
18 |
32 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
41 |
9 |
13 |
37 |
|
2000 Jan 17-19 |
43 |
10 |
15 |
32 |
|
2000 Jan 7-10 |
41 |
10 |
15 |
34 |
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree that [ROTATE: Al Gore/George Bush] has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have. How about…?
A. Al Gore
|
Agree |
Disagree |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely Voters |
|||
|
2000 Sep 8-10 |
62 |
34 |
4 |
|
2000 Sep 7-9 |
62 |
33 |
5 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
59 |
38 |
3 |
|
2000 Aug 11-12 |
53 |
42 |
5 |
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
51 |
45 |
4 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
49 |
49 |
2 |
|
2000 Apr 7-9 |
51 |
44 |
5 |
|
2000 Jan 17-19 |
50 |
47 |
3 |
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2000 Sep 8-10 |
62 |
32 |
6 |
|
2000 Sep 7-9 |
60 |
32 |
8 |
|
National Adults |
|||
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
64 |
32 |
4 |
|
2000 Aug 11-12 |
55 |
37 |
8 |
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
53 |
43 |
4 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
52 |
44 |
4 |
|
2000 Apr 7-9 |
52 |
41 |
7 |
|
2000 Jan 17-19 |
52 |
43 |
5 |
B. George W. Bush
|
Agree |
Disagree |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely Voters |
|||
|
2000 Sep 8-10 |
57 |
39 |
4 |
|
2000 Sep 7-9 |
59 |
37 |
4 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
63 |
34 |
3 |
|
2000 Aug 11-12 |
67 |
28 |
5 |
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
71 |
26 |
3 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
65 |
31 |
4 |
|
2000 Apr 7-9 |
62 |
31 |
7 |
|
2000 Jan 17-19 |
64 |
32 |
4 |
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2000 Sep 8-10 |
57 |
37 |
6 |
|
2000 Sep 7-9 |
58 |
35 |
7 |
|
National Adults |
|||
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
64 |
32 |
4 |
|
2000 Aug 11-12 |
65 |
28 |
7 |
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
70 |
26 |
4 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
62 |
32 |
6 |
|
2000 Apr 7-9 |
61 |
30 |
9 |
|
2000 Jan 17-19 |
65 |
28 |
7 |
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) Volunteered response