Gore Stands to Gain if President's Convention Speech Casts VP as Leader on the Economy

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Monday is Clinton night at the Democratic National Convention in Los Angeles, with prime-time speaking slots reserved for the president and first lady. While many observers are wondering how Bill Clinton's speech will impact Al Gore's campaign, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll suggests that if focused on the right issues -- particularly the economy -- Clinton's convention address has the potential to help Gore, who is now running 16 points behind George W. Bush, 55% to 39%, among likely voters. According to the August 11-12 poll, Americans already disassociate Gore from Clinton's moral failings, but they draw only a weak connection between Gore and the strong economy. If Clinton can make the case that Gore was instrumental in the administration's economic successes, that could help Gore.

Majority Say Gore Will Do Better Than Clinton on Moral Leadership
Despite their close association, Clinton's moral problems do not appear to have rubbed off on Gore. To the contrary, two-thirds of Americans, 68%, currently say they approve of Al Gore as a person, similar to the 73% who feel that way about George W. Bush, and substantially higher than the 36% who approved of Bill Clinton as a person when last measured in July. Furthermore, 58% of Americans believe Gore would do a better job than Clinton in providing moral leadership for the country if Gore is elected president.

But with good economic times standing out as the most visible and important achievement of the Clinton presidency, receiving credit for them could be critical to Gore's electoral success. As of now, only 45% of Americans say Gore deserves "a great deal" or "a fair amount" of credit for the recent improvements in the economy. This falls well short of the 68% who credit Clinton -- perhaps reflecting the leadership gap often afflicting vice-presidential candidates. A question in the weekend survey measuring the public's expectations for a Gore presidency indicates that the groundwork for building Gore's reputation on the economy may already be laid. When Americans are asked about his economic abilities, more than three in four believe Gore would do as good a job as Clinton would, if not better, in handling the economy. This includes six in ten who say Gore would do about the same as Clinton and 16% who say he would do better.

The Clinton Tightrope
The risk posed to Gore by President Clinton speaking at the Democratic convention this week is clear. Public opinion of Clinton is highly ambivalent, with Americans giving him positive ratings for his job performance on the one hand, but extremely low ratings for his personal behavior on the other. Fifty-eight percent of Americans currently approve of the way Clinton is handling his job as president and only 39% disapprove. Even more impressive, 68% of Americans describe the Clinton presidency as a "success." But, at the same time, only 46% say they "respect" Clinton and 73% think he will be remembered more for his involvement in personal scandal than for his accomplishments.

Unfortunately for Clinton -- and perhaps for Gore as well -- the net evaluation of the Clinton presidency seems to be negative. When Americans are asked whom they would support for president if they had to choose between Bill Clinton and former President George Bush, only 42% now pick Clinton while the majority, 53%, choose Bush. That represents a remarkable recovery for the elder Bush, who lost the 1992 election to Clinton by a five-point margin, 43%-38%.

If Bill Clinton cannot win a re-run of the 1992 election under the current booming economy, can Al Gore?

Gore's Challenge
Gore enters the Democratic convention with a significant deficit in voter support. As noted, the new poll finds Gore trailing Bush by 16 percentage points among likely voters, 55% to 39%. This is nearly identical to where the race stood immediately after the Republican convention concluded in Philadelphia a week earlier, when Bush led Gore by 17 points among likely voters, 54% to 37%. Bush's current lead represents an increase over the 11-point lead he held just prior to the Republican convention -- and indicates that Bush has been able to sustain his post-convention "bounce" of roughly five points among likely voters.

An intervening Gallup snapshot survey, conducted the evening of August 7, after Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman was revealed to be Gore's choice as running mate, showed the gap between the two tickets at only 2 points among registered voters. The views of these registered voters indicated an immediately positive effect of the Lieberman choice on public opinion, which has to a degree been sustained in the subsequent days among registered voters. Prior to the Lieberman pick, Bush led Gore by 19 points among registered voters. Today he leads by just 10 points among registered voters. The fact that Bush leads by 16 points among likely voters is due to the higher propensity of Republicans than Democrats to turn out to vote. Likely voters have been, by definition, more closely attuned to the presidential campaign during the past months and may, therefore, be less likely to be swayed by short-term events such as the vice-presidential announcements and the conventions.

Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,023 registered voters, 18 years and older, conducted August 11-12, 2000. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore and Joe Lieberman as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster as the Reform Party candidates, and Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke as the Green Party candidates. Would you vote for -- [RANDOM ORDER: Al Gore and Joe Lieberman, the Democrats, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republican candidates, Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster, the Reform Party candidates, (or) Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke, the Green Party candidates]?

(If Unsure) As of today do you lean toward Gore and Lieberman, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, Buchanan and Foster, the Reform Party candidates, or Nader and LaDuke, the Green Party candidates?

 

	Gore/ Lieberman	Bush/ Cheney	Buchanan/ Foster	Nader/ LaDuke	OTHER (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Likely Voters
2000 Aug 11-12 †	39	55	*	2	*	4
2000 Aug 4-5	37	54	1	4	*	4
2000 Jul 25-26 ^	39	50	1	4	1	5
2000 Jul 14-16	43	45	3	5	*	4
2000 Jun 23-25	38	50	2	6	0	4
2000 Jun 6-7	41	46	2	6	*	5
2000 Apr 28-30	41	47	4	4	1	3
Registered Voters
2000 Aug 11-12 †	40	50	*	3	*	7
2000 Aug 4-5	35	54	1	4	*	6
2000 Jul 25-26 ^	41	46	2	4	1	6
2000 Jul 14-16	41	43	3	6	*	7
2000 Jun 23-25	40	47	3	6	0	4
2000 Jun 6-7	42	43	3	5	*	7
2000 Apr 28-30	41	43	4	4	1	7
^ vice-presidential candidates Cheney and LaDuke included on ballot beginning July 25-26, 2000
† vice-presidential candidates Lieberman and Foster included on ballot beginning August 11-12, 2000

Do Vice President Al Gore's ties with President Bill Clinton make you feel more favorably toward Gore or less favorably toward Gore, or do they have no effect on your view of him?

 

	More favorably	Less favorably	No effect	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
Likely Voters
2000 Aug 11-12	7	32	60	1
2000 Jul 25-26	13	38	48	1
2000 Jan 17-19	7	28	64	1
2000 Jan 7-10	9	29	62	*
Republicans
2000 Aug 11-12	2	53	45	*
2000 Jul 25-26	3	63	34	*
2000 Jan 17-19	3	48	48	1
2000 Jan 7-10	3	47	50	*
Independents
2000 Aug 11-12	4	33	63	*
2000 Jul 25-26	8	41	48	3
2000 Jan 17-19	5	29	65	1
2000 Jan 7-10	5	29	65	1
Democrats
2000 Aug 11-12	17	4	77	2
2000 Jul 25-26	28	7	65	*
2000 Jan 17-19	13	8	78	1
2000 Jan 7-10	17	11	71	1

Please indicate how much credit, if any, Bill Clinton deserves for the improvement in the state of the economy in the past few years -- a great deal, a fair amount, not much, or none at all?

BASED ON -- 512 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; +/- 5 PCT. PTS.

 

	A great deal	A fair amount	Not much	None at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2000 Aug 11-12	28	40	20	11	1
2000 Jun 22-25 ^	29	39	20	10	2
^ Previous Wording: Please indicate how much credit, if any, the Clinton administration deserves for the positive state of the economy in the past few years -- a great deal, a fair amount, not much or none at all?

Please indicate how much credit, if any, Al Gore deserves for the improvement in the state of the economy in the past few years -- a great deal, a fair amount, not much, or none at all?

BASED ON -- 511 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B; +/- 5 PCT. PTS.

 

	A great deal	A fair amount	Not much	None at all	No opinion
2000 Aug 11-12	8%	37	33	17	5

If you had to choose, who would you say deserves the most credit for the good economy -- [ROTATED: The Clinton-Gore administration, Congress, Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve, (or) the American entrepreneur and worker]?

	The admin- istration	Congress	Federal Reserve	American entre- preneur/ worker	MIXED (vol.)	No opinion
2000 Aug 11-12	22%	13	16	33	8	8

Please tell me whether you think Al Gore, if elected in November, would do a better job, about the same, or not as good a job as President Clinton in handling the job of president.

 

	Better job	About the same	Not as good	No opinion
2000 Aug 11-12
Likely Voters	27%	52	17	4
National Adults	26%	49	20	5

Please tell me whether you think Al Gore, if elected in November, would do a better job, about the same, or not as good a job as President Clinton in -- ? [RANDOM ORDER]
A. Handling economic conditions in this country

 

	Better job	About the same	Not as good	No opinion
2000 Aug 11-12	16%	60	17	7
1988 Jul 1-7 ^	12%	54	25	9
^ Previous Wording: "Please tell me whether you think George Bush, if elected president in November, would do a better job, about the same, or not as good a job as President Reagan in handling each of these problems?... Economic conditions in this country"

B. Providing moral leadership for the country

 

	Better job	About the same	Not as good	No opinion
2000 Aug 11-12	58%	27	12	3

C. Handling social conditions such as crime and education in this country

 

	Better job	About the same	Not as good	No opinion
2000 Aug 11-12	25%	57	12	6

Since the start of 1993 when Bill Clinton became president, in general, would you say his presidency has been a success or a failure?

 

	Success	Failure	No opinion
(NA) 2000 Aug 11-12	68%	29	3
(NA) 1999 Jan 22-24	77%	20	3
(NA) 1999 Jan 15-17	81%	16	3
(NA) 1998 Jan 24-25	70%	26	4
(NA) 1998 Jan 23-24	71%	25	4
(NA) 1997 Oct 27-29 ^	70%	25	5
(RV) 1996 Aug 30-Sep 1 †	64%	31	5
(RV) 1996 Aug 16-18 †	57%	38	5
(RV) 1996 Aug 5-7 ^	64%	30	6
(NA) 1994 Dec 2-5 ‡	44%	50	6
(NA) National Adults (RV) Registered Voters ^ Asked of half sample
† Question Wording: "Looking back on Bill Clinton's first term in office, in general, would you say his presidency has been a success or a failure?
‡ Question Wording: "Looking back on Bill Clinton's first two years in office, in general, would you say his presidency has been a success or a failure?"

Regardless of how you feel about his political views, would you say you respect President Clinton, or don't you feel that way?

 

	Respect Clinton	Don't feel that way	No opinion
2000 Aug 11-12	46%	52	2
1999 Feb 4-8	43%	55	2
1999 Jan 8-10	42%	55	3
1998 Sep 13	43%	54	3
1998 Aug 10-12	53%	44	3
1998 Jan 28-29 ^	59%	37	4
^ Asked by Yankelovich Partners, Inc. for Time/CNN

In your view, will Clinton mostly be remembered as president for -- [ROTATED: his accomplishments, (or) his involvement in personal scandal]?

 

	His accomplishments	Involvement in personal scandal	OTHER (vol.)	No opinion
2000 Aug 11-12	22%	73	2	3
1998 Aug 21-23	23%	71	3	3

Thinking back to 1992, the last year when the elder George Bush was president of the United States, how would you rate economic conditions in this country at that time -- excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

 

	Excellent	Good	Only fair	Poor	No opinion
2000 Aug 11-12	6%	46	32	12	4

* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) Volunteered response