Giuliani Leads GOP Field; McCain Support Down in Latest Trial Heat

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll of rank-and-file Republicans' preferences for their party's 2008 presidential nomination shows Rudy Giuliani continues to lead the large field of candidates. John McCain continues to place second, but with his lowest level of support to date. Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich tie for third place.

Of the leading candidates, Giuliani is rated the most positively by Republicans and by all Americans. McCain's image is also mostly positive. Gingrich has a positive image among Republicans but a negative one among the general population, while Thompson and Mitt Romney are largely unknown. 

Republican Presidential Nomination Preferences

The April 2-5 Gallup Poll finds 38% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favoring Giuliani for the 2008 nomination, well ahead of his closest pursuer, McCain (16%). Two unannounced but potential candidates -- Gingrich and Thompson -- tie for third at 10%. The remaining 10 candidates tested in the poll all score below 10%, led by Mitt Romney at 6%. 

Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

BASED ON 430 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

Giuliani has been the established front-runner since early February. His support reached a high of 44% in early March, but fell back to 31% in late March before recovering in the latest poll.

McCain, who had been running neck-and-neck with Giuliani through the beginning of the year, registers his lowest level of support since Gallup began tracking preferences in November 2006. His high water mark was 28% in December, but his support dropped to an average of 21% in two March polls. It is unclear to what extent his poor fundraising performance (compared with those of his chief rivals) contributed to the further decline to 16%. The new poll was conducted last Monday through Thursday, and the candidates' first-quarter fundraising totals were made public on Monday. 

Thompson debuted at 12% support in the March 23-25 poll, and is basically holding steady at 10% in the latest survey. Romney -- the leader in the Republican fundraising derby -- is only supported by 6% of the party faithful, a slight improvement from his 3% showing in late March.

If Gingrich were to stay out of the race, his support would likely be spread among the leading candidates, roughly in proportion to their existing votes, based on an analysis of Gingrich's supporters' second choice. Giuliani would be the top choice of 42% of Republicans after Gingrich votes are factored out, with McCain at 18%, Thompson at 12%, and Romney at 7% under this scenario.

Republicans' Preference for 2008 Presidential Nomination,
Excluding Newt Gingrich

Giuliani has also maintained a steady lead over McCain in a one-on-one matchup of the top two candidates, with a 57% to 38% edge in the latest poll. 

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

All of the leading Republican candidates are viewed positively by Republicans, with Giuliani getting the highest favorable rating at 77% and McCain the next highest at 68%. Gingrich gets the highest negative rating -- a 29% unfavorable score -- but still manages a 52% favorable rating from the party base.  Romney and Thompson are unknown to roughly half of Republicans, but are viewed much more positively than negatively by those familiar enough to rate them. 

Favorable Ratings of Leading Republican Presidential Contenders,
Among Republicans and Republican Leaners

Giuliani also has the most positive image among the general population, getting a 61% favorable rating from all Americans. That is the best among any of the leading candidates of either party. McCain also has a favorable public image, with 57% of Americans viewing him positively. Gingrich, on the other hand, is viewed more negatively (48%) than positively (29%) by Americans. 

The first Gallup favorable rating of Thompson, the former Tennessee senator and current Law & Order actor , shows 24% of Americans viewing him positively, 11% negatively, and 65% not able to rate him. Romney also is a relative unknown, but unlike Thompson, Americans familiar with Romney are about as likely to view him negatively as positively. 

Favorable Ratings of Leading Republican Presidential Contenders,
Among All U.S. Adults

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,008 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 2-5, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 430 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

38. Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

BASED ON 430 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

39. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party who named a candidate they support for the Republican nomination in 2008) Who would be your second choice? 

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.38-39): FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES

BASED ON 430 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

40. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) S uppose the choice for the Republican presidential nomination narrows down to former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Arizona Senator John McCain .  Which one would you prefer the Republican Party nominate for president -- [ROTATED: Rudy Giuliani (or) John McCain]?

BASED ON 430 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS