GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds Hillary Clinton solidifying her lead over Barack Obama and the rest of the field for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, while Rudy Giuliani continues to lead among Republicans. This is the first poll conducted after each party held televised debates on cable television. Aside from a slightly better showing for Clinton, preferences for both parties' nominations have changed little from the prior poll in mid-April. Notably, Clinton's favorable rating among all Americans is back to 50% after being below that mark since late March.
Democratic Nomination
The May 4-6, 2007, poll finds 38% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents saying they are most likely to support Clinton for the party's 2008 presidential nomination. Barack Obama is a clear second at 23%, followed by Al Gore (14%), and John Edwards (12%). All other candidates receive 2% or less support.
Clinton's lead is back in double digits after the prior poll showed her with a smaller 31% to 26% advantage over Obama. The 38% support for Clinton in the current poll is more in line with what she has gotten this year.
Three other measures underscore Clinton's status as a solid frontrunner.
- She leads Obama by a 45% to 27% margin if Gore's supporters are re-allocated to the announced candidates. Gore has said he has no plans to run, but has not ruled out a bid.
- Clinton leads Obama 56% to 37% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. Clinton has routinely led Obama on this measure throughout the year, by no less than 12 percentage points.
- Sixty percent of Democrats say Clinton is either their first or second choice for the nomination. All other candidates are below 50% on this measure, with Obama the closest to it at 46%.
The poll also shows a bit of a recovery in Clinton's image among the general public. In three Gallup polls conducted from late March through mid-April, Clinton's favorable rating among all Americans was below 50%. That included a 45% rating in mid-April -- one of the lowest Gallup has ever recorded for Clinton. Now, in the current poll, her favorable rating is back to 50%. That, however, is still down from 58% as recently as February.
The other leading Democrats -- Obama (50%), Edwards (49%), and Gore (49%) -- all have similar favorable ratings to Clinton, but the lesser known Obama (24%) and Edwards (31%) have much lower unfavorable ratings than Clinton (47%) and Gore (43%). Meanwhile, Giuliani remains more popular than any of the leading Democrats with a solid 61% favorable rating.
Republican Nomination
The latest poll finds little change in Republicans' nomination preferences. Giuliani has held a significant lead over McCain in each poll since February. In the current poll, 34% of Republicans and independent-leaning Republicans name Giuliani as their top choice for the party's 2008 presidential nomination, while 20% choose McCain. Fred Thompson -- the actor and former Tennessee senator who said he is considering a candidacy -- is chosen by 13% of Republicans. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has also hinted at a possible candidacy, gets 8% support, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney gets 7%. All other candidates score at 2% or lower.
Giuliani also maintains a solid lead over McCain, 56% to 38%, in a hypothetical head-to-head match up. Those numbers have been quite stable in the last several polls.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,010 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 4-6, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 491 Democrats and Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 427 Republicans and Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
4. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. [ROTATED: Kansas Senator, Sam Brownback; Former Virginia Governor, Jim Gilmore; Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich; Former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani; Nebraska Senator, Chuck Hagel; Former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee; California Congressman, Duncan Hunter; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Former New York Governor, George Pataki; Former Massachusetts Governor, MittRomney; Colorado Congressman, Tom Tancredo; Former Wisconsin Governor, Tommy Thompson; Former Tennessee Senator, Fred Thompson; Texas Congressman, Ron Paul]
BASED ON 427 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
Jan
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
34 |
35 |
38 |
31 |
44 |
40 |
31 |
|
John McCain |
20 |
22 |
16 |
22 |
20 |
24 |
27 |
|
Fred Thompson |
13 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Newt Gingrich |
8 |
7 |
10 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
|
Mitt Romney |
7 |
9 |
6 |
3 |
8 |
5 |
7 |
|
Tommy Thompson |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
George Pataki |
1 |
2 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
Chuck Hagel |
1 |
-- |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
Sam Brownback |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
* |
2 |
1 |
|
Duncan Hunter |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
|
Jim Gilmore |
1 |
2 |
* |
* |
* |
2 |
2 |
|
Tom Tancredo |
1 |
* |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
N/A |
|
Ron Paul |
* |
2 |
2 |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
* |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
|
None |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
All/any |
-- |
-- |
* |
1 |
* |
-- |
-- |
|
No opinion |
7 |
3 |
4 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
10 |
|
* = Less than 0.5% |
|||||||
|
N/A = Not asked |
|||||||
|
Contact Gallup for full trend. |
|||||||
Republican Presidential Nomination Preference (Without Newt Gingrich):
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
36 |
38 |
42 |
34 |
49 |
42 |
|
John McCain |
21 |
24 |
18 |
22 |
21 |
25 |
|
Fred Thompson |
14 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Mitt Romney |
9 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
10 |
6 |
|
Tommy Thompson |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
George Pataki |
1 |
2 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
Chuck Hagel |
1 |
-- |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
|
Sam Brownback |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
|
Duncan Hunter |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Jim Gilmore |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
* |
2 |
|
Tom Tancredo |
1 |
* |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Ron Paul |
* |
2 |
2 |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
None |
3 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
|
All/any |
-- |
-- |
* |
1 |
* |
-- |
|
No opinion |
8 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
|
* = Less than 0.5% |
||||||
|
N/A = Not asked |
||||||
|
Contact Gallup for full trend. |
||||||
|
Note: Ballot recalculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for their Gingrich vote |
||||||
5. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party who named a candidate they support for the Republican nomination in 2008) Who would be your second choice?
COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.4-5): FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES
BASED ON 427 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
55 |
61 |
62 |
57 |
64 |
62 |
|
John McCain |
37 |
41 |
39 |
38 |
42 |
47 |
|
Fred Thompson |
21 |
19 |
16 |
16 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Mitt Romney |
20 |
15 |
12 |
9 |
14 |
11 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
16 |
16 |
19 |
15 |
21 |
18 |
|
Tommy Thompson |
5 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
|
George Pataki |
2 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
2 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
Sam Brownback |
2 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
|
Chuck Hagel |
2 |
* |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Ron Paul |
1 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Jim Gilmore |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Duncan Hunter |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
|
Tom Tancredo |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
|
None |
9 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
|
All/any |
* |
-- |
* |
1 |
-- |
-- |
|
No opinion |
7 |
3 |
4 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* = Less than 0.5% |
||||||
|
N/A = Not asked |
||||||
|
Note: Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses. |
||||||
6. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Suppose the choice for the Republican presidential nomination narrows down to former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Senator John McCain. Which one would you prefer the Republican Party nominate for president -- [ROTATED: Rudy Giuliani (or) John McCain]?
BASED ON 427 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
|
Giuliani |
McCain |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2007 May 4-6 |
56 |
38 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 Apr 13-15 |
57 |
39 |
4 |
|
2007 Apr 2-5 |
57 |
38 |
6 |
|
2007 Mar 23-25 |
54 |
39 |
7 |
|
2007 Mar 2-4 |
58 |
34 |
8 |
|
2007 Feb 9-11 |
57 |
39 |
4 |
|
2007 Jan 5-7 |
50 |
42 |
8 |
7. (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. [ROTATED: Delaware Senator, Joe Biden; Retired General, Wesley Clark; New York Senator, Hillary Clinton; Connecticut Senator, Christopher Dodd; Former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards; Former Vice President, Al Gore; Former Alaska Senator, Mike Gravel; Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich; Illinois Senator, Barack Obama; New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson; The Reverend, Al Sharpton]
BASED ON 491 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
Jan
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
38 |
31 |
38 |
35 |
36 |
40 |
29 |
|
Barack Obama |
23 |
26 |
19 |
22 |
22 |
21 |
18 |
|
Al Gore |
14 |
15 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
14 |
11 |
|
John Edwards |
12 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
9 |
13 |
13 |
|
Joe Biden |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
|
Bill Richardson |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
* |
* |
-- |
* |
* |
|
Wesley Clark |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
Christopher Dodd |
* |
1 |
* |
-- |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
Mike Gravel |
* |
1 |
1 |
-- |
1 |
* |
N/A |
|
Al Sharpton |
-- |
2 |
* |
-- |
* |
-- |
1 |
|
Tom Vilsack |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
* |
* |
|
John Kerry |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
1 |
* |
2 |
* |
1 |
* |
2 |
|
None |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
All/any |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
* |
-- |
* |
|
No opinion |
4 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
|
* = Less than 0.5% |
|||||||
|
N/A = Not asked |
|||||||
|
Contact Gallup for full trend. |
|||||||
Democratic Presidential Nomination Preference (Without Al Gore):
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
45 |
37 |
43 |
42 |
44 |
48 |
|
Barack Obama |
27 |
29 |
19 |
24 |
27 |
23 |
|
John Edwards |
14 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
10 |
14 |
|
Bill Richardson |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
|
Joe Biden |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
Wesley Clark |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
* |
|
Christopher Dodd |
* |
1 |
* |
-- |
* |
1 |
|
Al Sharpton |
* |
2 |
* |
-- |
1 |
-- |
|
Mike Gravel |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
|
Tom Vilsack |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
* |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
2 |
1 |
|
None |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
All/any |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
* |
-- |
|
No opinion |
4 |
3 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
|
* = Less than 0.5% |
||||||
|
M/A = Not asked |
||||||
|
Note: Ballot recalculated by substituting Gore supporters' second choice for their Gore vote. |
||||||
8. (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party who named a candidate they support for the Democratic nomination in 2008) Who would be your second choice?
COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.7-8): FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES
BASED ON 491 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
60 |
58 |
58 |
57 |
59 |
67 |
|
Barack Obama |
46 |
46 |
36 |
42 |
43 |
42 |
|
Al Gore |
31 |
28 |
29 |
32 |
34 |
26 |
|
John Edwards |
29 |
32 |
32 |
30 |
21 |
26 |
|
Bill Richardson |
5 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
|
Joe Biden |
4 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Wesley Clark |
2 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Christopher Dodd |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Mike Gravel |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
Tom Vilsack |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
2 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
None |
3 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
|
All/any |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
-- |
|
No opinion |
4 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
7 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* = Less than 0.5% |
||||||
|
N/A = Not asked |
||||||
|
Note: Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses. |
||||||
9. (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Suppose the choice for the Democratic presidential nomination narrows down to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Which one would you prefer the Democratic Party nominate for president -- [ROTATED: Hillary Clinton (or) Barack Obama]?
BASED ON 491 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
Clinton |
Obama |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2007 May 4-6 |
56 |
37 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 Apr 13-15 |
53 |
41 |
6 |
|
2007 Apr 2-5 |
61 |
33 |
6 |
|
2007 Mar 23-25 |
56 |
37 |
6 |
|
2007 Mar 2-4 |
56 |
36 |
8 |
|
2007 Feb 9-11 |
62 |
33 |
5 |
|
2007 Jan 12-14 |
53 |
39 |
8 |