GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- With Vice President Al Gore and Senator John McCain still leading their respective rivals through the last day of campaigning in New Hampshire, a special statistical analysis of the results of the weekend's Gallup tracking poll shows that the issue of personal trust is the principal consideration of voters in both primaries. At the beginning of the week, the two major issues among Republicans were taxes and trust, but the issue of taxes has given way to the more ephemeral characteristic of having a vision for the country's future and the very practical consideration of who can best keep the economy strong. On the Democratic side, trust and health care dominated the voters' concerns at the beginning of the week, but as the candidates changed their focus, so did the voters. Now, along with trust, vision and keeping the economy strong have risen to the top of the agenda, with health care and education not far back.
Independents in Each Party Favor Underdog
While Texas Governor George W. Bush leads McCain nationally by more
than 40 percentage points, in New Hampshire, Bush and McCain are
essentially tied among party regulars at 36%-37%, while McCain
enjoys a 30-point lead among independents, 53% to 23%. Among voters
in the Democratic primary, a similar divergence is found -- except
that independents are evenly divided between Bradley and Gore at
48%, while party regulars favor Gore by 10 percentage points, 53%
to 43%.
In both primaries, independents constitute about a third of the electorate, but they are very different types of independents. In the Republican primary, independents tend to be conservative and moderate, with almost no liberals, while independents in the Democratic Primary tend to be mostly moderate and liberal, with few conservatives.
Despite some speculation that Bradley and McCain are competing for the same independents, the poll shows that the vast majority of independents are unwavering in their choice of primary in which they intend to vote. Only about one in six independents say they are not sure which primary they will choose, while over eight in ten express a clear choice. Since independents represent only about a third of each primary's electorate, the wavering independents represent less than 7% of the actual vote in either primary. Clearly, for independents as well as party regulars, the real competition is found among candidates within each primary, not between Bradley and McCain.
Party Regulars and Independents Differ on Most Important
Factors in Their Vote
Not only do independents tend to vote differently from party
regulars, the factors that correlate with their vote preferences
are different as well. Among Republican Party regulars, the most
important consideration in their vote is which candidate has a
better vision for the country's future, followed very closely by
the question of trust. Another major consideration is who can best
keep the economy strong. Among independents in the Republican
primary, however, the major concern overwhelmingly is trust, with
other factors of far lesser importance.
In the Democratic primary, the differences between independents and party regulars are not as great. The most important consideration for party regulars in their vote choice is who can they trust more, but additional important considerations are who can best handle the economy and who has the better vision for the future. However, among independents, the "vision" characteristic is of far less importance, with trust and the economy clearly at the top of the list.
Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews
conducted January 29-30, with 911 likely Republican primary voters,
and 716 likely Democratic primary voters. For results based on the
Republican sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the
maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is
plus or minus 3 percentage points, while the margin of error for
the Democratic sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. In
addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into
the findings of public opinion polls.
Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one, please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to (read and rotate 1-5). How about … (Random order)
| Bauer | Bush | Forbes | Keyes | McCain | No opinion | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | ||
| Can get things done in Washington | |||||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | * | 42 | 8 | 3 | 38 | 9 | |
| 2000 Jan 28-29 | * | 40 | 9 | 3 | 41 | 8 | |
| Has the best chance of beating the Democratic candidate in November | |||||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 0 | 68 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 6 | |
| 2000 Jan 28-29 | 0 | 66 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 6 | |
| Has a vision for the country's future | |||||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | * | 27 | 14 | 9 | 39 | 11 | |
| 2000 Jan 28-29 | * | 29 | 14 | 9 | 37 | 11 | |
| Will keep the economy strong | |||||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | * | 35 | 22 | 3 | 29 | 11 | |
| 2000 Jan 28-29 | * | 34 | 24 | 3 | 29 | 10 | |
| Is in touch with the average American | |||||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 9 | 45 | 11 | |
| 2000 Jan 28-29 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 43 | 9 | |
| Is someone you can trust | |||||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 1 | 24 | 13 | 10 | 39 | 13 | |
| 2000 Jan 28-29 | 1 | 26 | 12 | 12 | 38 | 11 | |
| Has the best plan for cutting taxes | |||||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | * | 27 | 33 | 5 | 23 | 12 | |
| 2000 Jan 28-29 | * | 28 | 34 | 5 | 22 | 11 | |
| Would do the best job improving moral standards in this country | |||||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 3 | 21 | 9 | 24 | 34 | 9 | |
| 2000 Jan 28-29 | 4 | 21 | 10 | 23 | 33 | 9 | |
Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one, please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to [ROTATE Al Gore or Bill Bradley]. How about … (RANDOM ORDER)
| Gore | Bradley | SAME (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| Can get things done in Washington | ||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 59 | 26 | 10 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 58 | 27 | 10 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 62 | 25 | 9 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 65 | 22 | 9 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 60 | 25 | 10 | 5 |
| Has the better chance of beating the Republican candidate in November | ||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 74 | 18 | 4 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 72 | 20 | 4 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 76 | 18 | 2 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 66 | 26 | 4 | 4 |
| Has a vision for the country's future | ||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 41 | 41 | 17 | 1 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 41 | 41 | 17 | 1 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 43 | 39 | 16 | 2 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 46 | 35 | 16 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 39 | 38 | 20 | 3 |
| Will keep the economy strong | ||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 55 | 28 | 12 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 54 | 28 | 13 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 56 | 25 | 14 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 57 | 24 | 13 | 6 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 54 | 25 | 13 | 8 |
| Is in touch with the average American | ||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 34 | 50 | 12 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 33 | 51 | 11 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 34 | 50 | 12 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 36 | 47 | 13 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 34 | 49 | 13 | 4 |
| Is someone you can trust | ||||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 33 | 41 | 20 | 6 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 34 | 47 | 16 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 36 | 43 | 18 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 38 | 38 | 19 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 34 | 39 | 23 | 4 |