GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
When Bill Bradley, former New Jersey senator and New York Knicks basketball star, announced last year that he was considering a run for the presidency, his name barely registered among Democrats. In a May, 1998, poll, for example, just 8% said they preferred him as the Party's nominee for president in the year 2000, with 51% choosing Vice President Al Gore, 12% Jesse Jackson, 7% Dick Gephardt, and less than 5% each choosing Bob Kerrey, John Kerry, and Paul Wellstone. Since then, all the other candidates but Gore have decided against making a bid for the presidency, a development that has clearly helped Bradley in his contest with Gore. According to the latest Gallup poll, conducted April 13-14, 34% of Democrats now say they would support Bradley for the nomination, while about the same number of Democrats as last year--54%--prefer Gore.
This increased support for Bradley has come at the same time that Gore has been slipping badly in a hypothetical race with the Republican front-runner, Texas Governor George Bush. Currently, Bush leads Gore by 21 points, 59% to 38%. In two March polls, Bush led by 15 points, and last January, the two candidates were effectively tied, with Bush enjoying a one-point lead of 48% to 47%.
In the current poll, Bradley does almost as well as Gore in a national race, losing to Bush by 27 points, 61% to 34%. Among Republican and independent voters, Bradley actually does as well against Bush as does Gore. In the hypothetical race between Bush and Bradley, the latter gets 9% of the Republican vote and 24% of the independent vote, in each case one percentage point more than Gore receives when he is pitted against Bush. Gore has a slight advantage over Bradley among Democratic voters in that hypothetical race against Bush: Bradley gets 59% of the Democratic vote, while Gore gets 67%.
This relatively good showing by Bradley in the national contest is somewhat surprising, since more than four in ten Americans are not familiar enough with the former New Jersey senator to rate him either positively or negatively. Of those who do know him, his image is strongly positive. Overall, 46% of Americans giving him a favorable rating, compared to just 10% who give him an unfavorable rating. By contrast, only 7% of Americans could not rate Gore. Among those who could, the ratio of positive to negative feelings is much worse for Gore than for Bradley. Overall, 54% give Gore a favorable rating, just a few points more than for Bradley, while 39% give Gore an unfavorable rating, almost four times as many as give Bradley an unfavorable rating.
What Defines the Bradley Democrats
Democrats who prefer Bradley over Gore for the Party's presidential
nomination tend to have higher incomes, be middle-aged, and
identify themselves as moderates rather than as conservatives or
liberals. They are also more likely to be independents who "lean"
to the Democratic Party. And blacks are more likely to support
Bradley than are whites.
In all of these subgroups of voters, Gore still enjoys a substantial lead over Bradley, but the lead varies greatly. Among conservative Democrats, for example, Gore leads by 24 points, and among liberals by 19 points, but among moderates by just 10 points. Similarly, among blacks, Gore enjoys just a 2-point lead, while among whites the lead is 24 points. Among Democrats with household incomes of more than $50,000 a year, Gore leads by just 7 percentage points, but by 20 points among middle-income Democrats, and by 29 points among Democrats earning less than $20,000 a year.
Bradley's support does not seem to be due primarily to a backlash against President Clinton. Among Democrats who approve of the president's job performance, Gore leads Bradley by 21 points, while among those who disapprove, Gore leads by almost the same amount--17 points.
For results based on the sample of national adults (N=1,069) surveyed April 13-14, 1999, the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2000? [ROTATE]
| National Adults | Repubicans | Democrats | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Former New Jersey Senator, Bill Bradley | 43% | 55% | 34% |
| Vice President, Al Gore | 40 | 26 | 54 |
| OTHER (vol.) | * | 1 | 1 |
| NONE/DON'T PLAN TO VOTE (vol.) | 11 | 16 | 3 |
| No opinion | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| 100% | 100% | 100% |
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or), George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or), George W. Bush, the Republican]?
| Al Gore | George W. Bush | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (NA) 99 Apr 13-14 | 38% | 59% | 3% |
| (NA) 99 Mar 12-14 | 41 | 56 | 3 |
| (NA) 99 Mar 5-7 | 41 | 56 | 3 |
| (NA) 99 Feb 19-21 | 43 | 54 | 3 |
| (NA) 99 Jan 8-10 | 47 | 48 | 5 |
| (NA) 98 May 8-10 | 46 | 50 | 4 |
If former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Bill Bradley, the Democrat (or), George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Bill Bradley, the Democrat (or), George W. Bush, the Republican]?
| Bill Bradley | George W. Bush | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (NA) 99 Apr 13-14 | 34% | 61% | 5% |
Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, ... How about... [READ A; THEN ROTATE B-U]
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Never Heard Of | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Al Gore | ||||
| (NA) 99 Apr 13-14 | 54 | 39 | 1 | 6 |
| (NA) 99 Feb 19-21 | 59 | 33 | 1 | 7 |
| (NA) 99 Feb 4-8 | 61 | 31 | * | 8 |
| (NA) 98 Dec 28-29 | 57 | 28 | 1 | 14 |
| (NA) 98 Sep 14-15 | 56 | 32 | 2 | 10 |
| (NA) 98 Feb 13-15 | 57 | 33 | 2 | 8 |
| (NA) 98 Jan 30-Feb 1 | 62 | 31 | 1 | 6 |
| (NA) 98 Jan 24-25 | 56 | 32 | 1 | 11 |
| (NA) 98 Jan 23-24 | 55 | 33 | 1 | 11 |
| G. Former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley | ||||
| (NA) 99 Apr 13-14 | 46 | 10 | 20 | 24 |
| (NA) 99 Feb 19-21 | 38 | 9 | 33 | 20 |
(NA) National Adults
(vol.) volunteered response