GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
This year's closely watched midterm congressional elections are now less than three weeks away – and there is not yet a clear picture of what their results are most likely to be. In most off-year elections, the president's party loses seats, which this year suggests history is on the side of the Republicans. And, President Clinton's yearlong crisis in the White House initially led many observers to the assumption that the Republicans would do even better this year against the party of a wounded president. Recent Gallup polling, however, provides mixed signals on the election, and given the late-breaking time frame for this year's serious campaigning, it is likely that much can change between now and November 3.
In terms of the straightforward ballot question asking Americans for whom they are going to vote for Congress in their district, the latest Gallup poll shows that the two parties are essentially tied among those who are most likely to vote on Election Day. This is an increase for Republicans compared to Gallup's previous poll conducted in late September, but is similar to earlier polls last month.
If this 50-50 split were to hold through Election Day, it would represent a positive scenario for Democrats. Gallup analysis suggests that Republicans need to take a majority of the national two-party vote to maintain or expand their number of seats in the House.
Turnout is a Key
Turnout is the key to mid-year elections and in low-interest
contests, Republicans are usually disproportionately represented at
the polls. If turnout is low this year the Republicans would have
the advantage. If Democrats generate a high level of interest and
vote in higher than usual numbers, it could spell a Democratic
victory, or at the least a situation in which Republicans gain no
seats.
A question designed to measure enthusiasm for voting this year suggests an apparent edge to Republicans. A higher percentage of Republicans indicated in Gallup's most recent poll that they were "more enthusiastic about the election" this year than indicated that they were "less enthusiastic." Democrats, on the other hand, had the opposite pattern. When this same question was asked in 1994, Republicans also indicated more enthusiasm than Democrats, although that year voters from both parties were less likely to be enthusiastic. A relatively higher turnout among Republican voters in 1994 is often credited with helping them make the historic gains that produced their majority in the House.
Other Evidence
Several other indicators in the data provide evidence of the
possibility of a positive outcome for Republicans this November.
The percentage of Americans who say that their U.S. Representative
deserves re-election is at 68%, an all-time high for this measure
and significantly higher than that measured before the 1994
elections. The results for the same question asked about "most
members" of the House are also as high as they have ever been
– at 58% – and this too is considerably higher than it
was in 1994. These signs of contentment with Congress as it is now
constituted may suggest that the Republican-controlled House has a
good chance of maintaining the status quo.
On the other hand, Democrats hold the perceptual edge among Americans on many of the key issues that are most likely to drive this election. The top six issues, ranked by the public in terms of their priority, are education, the economy, crime, social security, taxes and health care policy. Americans were asked to indicate whether the Democrats or the Republicans could do a better job of handling each – and the Democrats have the edge for all but crime. Democrats do particularly well on education, social security, and health care policy.
The only issues other than taxes on which Republicans are close to the Democrats are foreign affairs (a tie) and the impeachment proceedings, on which Republicans have a 3 point advantage. (This impeachment advantage exists despite the fact that on a different question Republicans in Congress are given a slightly lower approval rating for their handling of the Clinton investigation than are their Democratic counterparts.)
When asked who they want to have more influence over the direction the nation takes in the next year – 53% of the public chooses Bill Clinton compared to 39% who choose the "Republicans in Congress."
Survey Methods
The results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 1,004 adults, 18 years and older,
conducted October 9-12, 1998. For results based on samples of this
size, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the error
attributable to sampling and other random effects could be plus or
minus 3 percentage points. Polls, such as this one, conducted
entirely in one day are subject to additional error or bias not
found in polls conducted over several days.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
1998 GENERIC POLL TREND
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's
candidate would you vote for in your Congressional
district"
| Democratic Candidate | Republican Candidate | Democratic Advantage/Disadvantage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 Oct 9-12 (semi final) |
47% | 46% | 6% |
| 98 Sep 23-24 | 51 | 45 | 4 |
| 98 Sep 14-15 | 48 | 47 | 5 |
| 98 Sep 11-12 | 47 | 46 | 7 |
| 98 Aug 21-23 | 44 | 48 | 8 |
| 98 Jul 7-8 | 46 | 46 | 8 |
| 98 Apr 17-19 | 44 | 50 | 6 |
| Based on Likely
Voters (^) (^) Likely voter estimate assumes 39% turnout among the voting age population (equivalent to 1994 midterm election turnout) |
|||
Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following political officeholders deserves to be re-elected.
a. The U.S. representative in your Congressional District
| Yes, deserves re-elect | No, does not deserve re-elect | No Opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 Oct 9-12 (semi final) |
68 | 16 | 16 |
| 98 Apr 17-19 | 64 | 19 | 17 |
| 97 Oct 27-29 | 62 | 18 | 20 |
| 97 Aug 22-25 | 63 | 21 | 16 |
| 96 Oct 27-28 | 62 | 19 | 19 |
| 96 May 9-12 | 65 | 22 | 13 |
| 96 Jan 12-15 | 62 | 21 | 17 |
| 94 Nov 2-6 | 53 | 29 | 18 |
| 94 Oct 22-25 | 54 | 30 | 16 |
| 94 Oct 18-19 | 57 | 29 | 14 |
| 94 Oct 7-9 | 54 | 29 | 17 |
| 94 Jul 15-17 | 60 | 27 | 13 |
| 94 Mar 25-27 | 60 | 23 | 17 |
| 94 Feb 26-28 | 59 | 28 | 13 |
| 93 Dec 17-19 | 59 | 26 | 15 |
| 93 Nov 2-4 | 62 | 19 | 19 |
| 93 Jul 19-21 | 58 | 25 | 17 |
| 92 Oct 23-25 | 48 | 30 | 22 |
| 92 Sep 11-15 | 54 | 25 | 51 |
| 92 Jul 31-Aug 2 | 61 | 25 | 14 |
| 92 Apr 20-22 | 50 | 31 | 19 |
| 92 Apr 9-12 | 58 | 29 | 13 |
| 92 Mar 20-22 | 56 | 30 | 14 |
| 92 Jan 31-Feb 2 | 64 | 24 | 12 |
| 92 Jan 3-9 | 61 | 25 | 17 |
| 91 Nov | 58 | 25 | 14 |
b. Most members of the U.S. House of Representatives
| Yes, deserves re-elect | No, does not deserve re-elect | No Opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 Oct 9-12 (semi final) |
58% | 26% | 16% |
| 98 Apr 17-19 | 56 | 28 | 16 |
| 97 Oct 27-29 | 50 | 29 | 21 |
| 97 Aug 22-25 | 56 | 27 | 17 |
| 96 Oct 27-28 | 55 | 26 | 19 |
| 96 May 9-12 | 50 | 35 | 15 |
| 96 Jan 12-15 | 47 | 38 | 15 |
| 94 Nov 2-6 | 39 | 45 | 16 |
| 94 Oct 22-25 | 43 | 44 | 13 |
| 94 Oct 18-19 | 44 | 42 | 14 |
| 94 Oct 7-9 | 37 | 48 | 15 |
| 94 Jul 15-17 | 41 | 43 | 16 |
| 94 Mar 25-27 | 46 | 38 | 16 |
| 94 Feb 26-28 | 42 | 44 | 14 |
| 93 Dec 17-19 | 38 | 47 | 15 |
| 93 Jul 19-21 | 39 | 46 | 15 |
| 92 Oct 23-25 | 29 | 50 | 21 |
| 92 Sep 11-15 | 32 | 46 | 22 |
| 92 Jul 31-Aug 2 | 40 | 46 | 14 |
| 92 Apr 20-22 | 33 | 50 | 17 |
| 92 Apr 9-12 | 32 | 53 | 15 |
| 92 Mar 20-22 | 31 | 58 | 11 |
| 92 Jan 31-Feb 2 | 43 | 43 | 14 |
| 92 Jan 3-9 | 43 | 42 | 15 |
| 91 Nov | 38 | 48 | 14 |
