Gore And Bush Still Front-Runners For 2000 Election

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, N.J. -- Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush continue to be the early favorites for the Democratic and Republican nominations for the year 2000 Presidential election, even though history shows that the shape of the race can change radically before the primary season begins in earnest more than one and a half years from now. A new Gallup poll also shows that Gore and Bush would be running neck and neck if the general election were held today.

Only Gore and Jackson Well-known Among Democrats
Gore and the Reverend Jesse Jackson are the only two Democrats tested in the May 8-10 Gallup poll who have near universal name recognition among Democrats. Gore's image is strongly positive, with 73% of Democrats saying they have a favorable opinion of the Vice President, compared to only 20% who have a negative opinion. The more controversial Jackson has an image that splits roughly half favorable and half unfavorable.

The other six potential Democratic candidates tested in the poll – former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt, and Senators Bob Kerrey, John Kerry, and Paul Wellstone – all have much weaker name ID's, with 40% or more of Democrats saying they have never heard of them or don't know enough about them to have an opinion.

This name identification disparity helps explain why Gore wins so overwhelmingly when Democrats are asked to indicate their first choice for the Democratic nomination in 2000. He gets 51% of their votes, compared to 12% for Jesse Jackson. Bradley and Gephardt receive 8% and 7% respectively.

Republican Candidates Generate More Extreme Reactions
There are a number of well-known Republicans who are potential candidates in 2000, although several have strongly negative images. About 8 out of 10 Republicans know enough about six Republicans to have an opinion of them: former Vice President Dan Quayle, House Speaker Newt Gingrich, George W. Bush, Elizabeth Dole, Pat Buchanan, and former vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp. Of these, three -- Bush, Dole and Kemp -- have generally positive images, particularly Bush and Dole.

The other three – Quayle, Gingrich and Buchanan -- have much more negative images, particularly former Presidential candidate and current political commentator Pat Buchanan, who is viewed unfavorably by 47% of Republicans, compared with just 33% who have a favorable opinion. Speaker Gingrich has a 47% favorable, 43% unfavorable image among Republicans, while Dan Quayle's image is similarly split at 50% favorable, 42% unfavorable.

The other potential Republican candidates tested in the poll are less well known. Magazine publisher and 1996 candidate Steve Forbes is known by about 70% of Republicans (his image tilts favorable), but five other potential candidates – former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, Missouri Senator John Ashcroft, Chairman of the Family Research Council Gary Bauer, Ohio Congressman John Kasich, and Arizona Senator John McCain, are known by less than half of the Republicans in the poll. Alexander's low name recognition comes despite the fact that he was a well-publicized candidate in the 1996 campaign, and McCain's despite the fact that the Vietnam veteran has been one of the more visible senators in Washington over the last several years.

Out of all of these possible candidates, George W. Bush wins the Republican trial heat with 30% of the vote, followed by Red Cross President Elizabeth Dole with 14%. Kemp and Quayle are next with 9% each. Elizabeth Dole, however, essentially ties Bush among Republican women, a perhaps important finding given the degree to which Bill Clinton utilized his favorable standing among women to win the 1992 and 1996 elections.

In a head to head match-up between Gore and Bush, Bush wins by a 50% to 46% margin. If Newt Gingrich were the Republican nominee, however, Gore would win overwhelmingly by a 62% to 32% margin.

Importance of Polls Two Years Before the Election
Handicapping the Presidential field so far before an election often has little relationship to what eventually happens. In some years the front-runners are well-established this far out, while in others the eventual winners of the nominations are not even well-known enough to be included in these types of trial heat polls.

In 1994, two years before the 1996 election, Bob Dole had already become the front-runner for the Republican nomination in Gallup polling. In March 1990, on the other hand, Democrats had a hard time coming up with a favorite for the 1992 election. In an open-ended question, Bill Clinton essentially did not show up at all, and when a list of possible candidates was prepared by Gallup, Clinton was not well-known enough to be included on the list. (Mario Cuomo, 1988 nominee Michael Dukakis, and Jesse Jackson were the top vote getters at that point – none of whom was seriously in the race for the nomination by the time 1992 came around).

Similarly, in 1986, the eventual 1988 Democratic nominee, Michael Dukakis, was also not well-known enough to be included in a Democratic trial heat poll. Gary Hart was the runaway leader at that point in time, followed by Mario Cuomo, businessman Lee Iacocca and Jesse Jackson. On the Republican side, however, then Vice President George Bush was already established as the front runner for that party's nomination.

In early 1982, Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy was leading former Vice President Walter Mondale and Ohio Senator John Glenn as the favorite among Democrats for the 1984 nomination. By late 1982, however, Mondale – the eventual nominee – had become the front-runner.

METHODOLOGY
The current results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,005 adults, conducted May 8-10, 1998. For results based on a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects could be plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

(Asked of Democrats and those leaning Democratic, 487 respondents, ±5%)Now suppose that each of the people whose names Ijustmentioned were running for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2000. Which of those candidates would you be most likely to support?

(Asked of Republicans and those leaning Republican, 420 respondents, ±5%)Now suppose that each of the people whose names Ijustmentioned were running for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2000. Which of those candidates would you be most likely to support?