GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Six months ago, George W. Bush registered the highest presidential job approval rating in Gallup's polling history, at 90%. Since that time, his approval rating has fallen only slightly, to 80%. Bush's 10-percentage-point drop six months after his high point compares favorably to the average six-month approval declines of other recent presidents. Looking at Gallup's presidential approval archives back to Dwight Eisenhower, the average decline in job approval at the six-month mark following the date of each president's high score is 16 points. In three cases (John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon), the decline was less than 10 points.
Ten-Point Decline in Six Months
The following table shows each president's high score and where their job approval rating stood six months after they achieved it:
Presidential Job Approval Ratings, High Scores and Decline Over Six Months
|
High |
Six Months Later |
Differ- |
|||
|
President |
Score |
Date |
Score |
Date |
|
|
Eisenhower |
79% |
Dec 14-19 '56 |
63% |
Jun 27-Jul 2 '57 |
16 |
|
Kennedy |
83 |
Apr 28-May 3 '61 |
79 |
Nov 17-22 '61 |
4 |
|
Johnson |
79 |
Feb 28-Mar 4 '64 |
70 |
Nov 20-25 '64 |
9 |
|
Nixon |
67 |
Nov 12-17 '69 |
59 |
May 21-26 '70 |
8 |
|
Ford |
71 |
Aug 16-19 '74 |
39 |
Feb 28-Mar 2 '75 |
32 |
|
Carter |
75 |
Mar 18-21 '77 |
59 |
Sept 30-Oct 3 '77 |
16 |
|
Reagan I |
68 |
May 8-11 '81 |
49 |
Nov 13-16 '81 |
19 |
|
Reagan II |
68 |
May 16-19 '86 |
47 |
Dec 4-5 '86 |
21 |
|
Bush |
89 |
Feb 28-Mar 3 '91 |
70 |
Sep 5-8 '91 |
19 |
|
Clinton |
73 |
Dec 19-20 '98 |
57 |
Jun 25-27 '99 |
16 |
|
Bush |
90 |
Sep 21-22 '01 |
80 |
Mar 8-9 '02 |
10 |
The range of decline in approval ratings six months after a president's highest score is as little as 4 percentage points for Kennedy and as much as 32 points for Gerald Ford, and averages 16 points. Ford's ratings actually declined much earlier than six months, as they plummeted once he pardoned Nixon in September 1974, barely a month after he reached his high of 71% approval. Compared with George W. Bush's approval-score drop, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton had the next-smallest drops among the most recent presidents, at 16%.
In addition to Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon also had relatively minor decays in their approval ratings once they received their high ratings. Johnson showed only a 9-point decline six months after receiving a 79% approval rating, and Nixon's rating declined only 8 points, albeit from a relatively low high point of 67%.
Possibly the fairest comparison to the current president is with his father, George H.W. Bush, who previously had the historical best rating of 89%. Six months after he registered that rating, the elder Bush's approval had fallen to 70%, a decline of 19 percentage points.
The current president's scores are remarkable given his 90% high point, which leaves him much more room to fall than other presidents. Since achieving that 90%, Bush's approval rating did dip below 80% just once, to 77% in a Mar. 4-7 Gallup poll. So far in 2002, his approval rating has averaged 82%.
Bush Stays Ahead of the Curve
In late December 2001 and early January 2002, roughly three months after his highest approval rating, Bush's job approval was 84%, representing just a 6-point decline. Only Johnson showed a smaller three-month decline than Bush (5 points) and the average drop for presidents three months after their high score is 12 points. After both the three-month and six-month mileposts, Bush is running ahead of previous presidents. Looking ahead, the average decline is 18 points after nine months and 20 points after one year.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2002 Mar 8-9 |
80 |
14 |
6 |
|
2002 Mar 4-7 |
77 |
18 |
5 |
|
2002 Mar 1-3 |
81 |
14 |
5 |
|
2002 Feb 8-10 |
82 |
14 |
4 |
|
2002 Feb 4-6 |
82 |
14 |
4 |
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
84 |
13 |
3 |
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
83 |
13 |
4 |
|
2002 Jan 7-9 |
84 |
12 |
4 |
|
2001 Dec 14-16 |
86 |
11 |
3 |
|
2001 Dec 6-9 |
86 |
10 |
4 |
|
2001 Nov 26-27 |
87 |
8 |
5 |
|
2001 Nov 8-11 |
87 |
9 |
4 |
|
2001 Nov 2-4 |
87 |
9 |
4 |
|
2001 Oct 19-21 |
88 |
9 |
3 |
|
2001 Oct 11-14 |
89 |
8 |
3 |
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
87 |
10 |
3 |
|
2001 Sep 21-22 |
90 |
6 |
4 |
|
2001 Sep 14-15 |
86 |
10 |
4 |
|
2001 Sep 7-10 |
51 |
39 |
10 |
|
2001 Aug 24-26 |
55 |
36 |
9 |
|
2001 Aug 16-19 |
57 |
34 |
9 |
|
2001 Aug 10-12 |
57 |
35 |
8 |
|
2001 Aug 3-5 |
55 |
35 |
10 |
|
2001 Jul 19-22 |
56 |
33 |
11 |
|
2001 Jul 10-11 |
57 |
35 |
8 |
|
2001 Jun 28-Jul 1 |
52 |
34 |
14 |
|
2001 Jun 11-17 |
55 |
33 |
12 |
|
2001 Jun 8-10 |
55 |
35 |
10 |
|
2001 May 18-20 |
56 |
36 |
8 |
|
2001 May 10-14 |
56 |
31 |
13 |
|
2001 May 7-9 |
53 |
33 |
14 |
|
2001 Apr 20-22 |
62 |
29 |
9 |
|
2001 Apr 6-8 |
59 |
30 |
11 |
|
2001 Mar 26-28 |
53 |
29 |
18 |
|
2001 Mar 9-11 |
58 |
29 |
13 |
|
2001 Mar 5-7 |
63 |
22 |
15 |
|
2001 Feb 19-21 |
62 |
21 |
17 |
|
2001 Feb 9-11 |
57 |
25 |
18 |
|
2001 Feb 1-4 |
57 |
25 |
18 |
