With the elections now just two weeks away, most indicators continue to suggest a close race for control of the House.
As is always the case with midterm elections, turnout can be a key. So far, indications suggest that this election will not see an unusually high turnout. Just about a third of Americans say they are giving quite a lot or some thought to the election. That's below the number given at a comparable point in time before the last midterm election in 1998.
There is little difference at this point between Republicans and Democrats in terms of this "thought given to the election" measure. But our "likely voter" model suggests that turnout among Republicans will be slightly higher than among Democrats, and 65% of Republicans say they are extremely or very motivated to get out and vote this year, compared to 55% of Democrats. These turnout estimates could change as we move closer to Nov. 5. Democrats are reportedly making turnout among groups who traditionally vote Democratic a high priority this year.
Election 2002: Issues
Our analyses show there are political differences in the groups that care most about specific issues in this campaign. If these groups become activated and increasingly motivated to turn out during the remaining two weeks of the campaign, it could affect the election outcome.
For example, 37% of Americans mention some aspect of the economy as the top problem facing the country. This makes the economy the nation's No. 1 problem. Our polls and others also show that consumer confidence and optimism about the national economy are at low levels. (These levels of concern about the economy have not changed much over the last several months.)
The fact that Americans are worried about economic conditions is not news to Democrats, who are highlighting the "Bush economy" in their communications to voters. This strategy may work if Democrats can increase turnout among groups who name the economy as the most important issue affecting their vote. That's based on our analysis showing that economically concerned voters tend to be Democratic in orientation (and most likely to rate the current economy negatively).
There has been a resurgence of concern about terrorism this month in the responses to our "most important problem" question. Last month, just 19% of Americans volunteered that terrorism was the most important problem facing the country. This month, that number has jumped to 32%. This could work to the Republicans' favor, because they have an edge among those for whom terrorism is the most important issue in the election. These voters are most likely to feel the Republicans can do the best job of handling terrorism.
Iraq is mentioned by relatively few Americans as the country's most important problem. This is in part, we assume, because many respondents may subsume their concern about Iraq into a more general response that "terrorism" is the most important problem facing the nation.
Although the GOP is in general much better positioned on the issue of Iraq than is the Democratic Party, the Iraqi situation could end up being harmful to Republicans in the election. Why? Because those who name Iraq as the most important issue in the coming elections are generally more likely than average to be opposed to military action there. They also tend to favor the Democrats on the issue.
Furthermore, despite what was considered to be a Bush administration victory when both the House and the Senate voted to allow the administration to authorize military action against Iraq, there has been very little change in basic public opinion on the issue. Fifty-six percent favor military action to remove Saddam Hussein from power, while 37% oppose. These attitudes have held very steady over the last several months.
Republicans have in part been depending on President Bush's high job approval ratings to help sustain their control of the House and to help wrest control of the Senate from the Democrats. Bush's job approval rating, however, has now fallen to 62%, the lowest since Sept. 11, 2001. Bush's previous low point over the last year was 65%. Presidential job approval ratings are quite variable, and Bush's rating may either stabilize or rise again between now and the election. But if it falls into the 50% range, it could signal a more favorable outcome for the Democrats than might have been predicted.
Finally, Bush announced a plan Monday to make generic drugs more available to those who need them. The issue, like most domestic concerns, is important to voters this year, but ranks below foreign policy concerns such as terrorism and the possibility of war with Iraq. It is an issue, however, on which the Democrats have a decided edge over Republicans.
Sniper Attacks
The impact of the serial sniper attacks on the psyche of the American public is difficult to pinpoint. Our latest poll shows that worry about being the victim of a sniper is fairly low overall, though it is a little higher in the East and South.
But the attacks are probably influencing public opinion in other ways. The perception that crime is increasing in the United States has jumped by 21 points compared to last year. And 10% of Americans now say that crime is the top problem facing the country, up from 3% last month.
China
Chinese President Jiang Zemin will visit the United States this week, culminating with a meeting with Bush at his Crawford, Texas ranch on Friday. Our latest data indicate that 44% of Americans have a favorable opinion of China, while 49% have an unfavorable opinion. Positive feelings about China had zoomed in early 1989, but plummeted again after the Tiananmen Square massacre, and have remained generally low since that incident.
Holiday Spending
Our preliminary analysis shows that the sluggish economy may have an impact on holiday spending this year. Early indications suggest that Americans plan on tightening their belts and spending less this holiday season than they have the previous two years.