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Bush Second-Year Approval Rating One of Best Ever

Bush Second-Year Approval Rating One of Best Ever

Post-Sept. 11 decline evident in latest quarterly ratings

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Jan. 19 marks the conclusion of President George W. Bush's second year in office. For Bush, the news is a mixture of good and bad. On the plus side, his average job approval rating for his second year in office places as the eighth best of any president since Gallup began regularly tracking this measure around 1945. However, his approval rating continued to decline from its post-Sept. 11 record high as the year progressed and is just slightly better now than it was immediately prior to the terrorist attacks. While all of Bush's approval ratings in specific issue areas show declines, he still gets very positive ratings from the public on a wide range of personal characteristics. Roughly two in five Americans can be categorized as not having made up their minds on Bush, given that they are uncertain about how he is currently performing as president or how he will continue to perform in the future.

Bush Posts Eighth-Best Yearly Average

For his second full year in office, from Jan. 20, 2002 through Jan. 19, 2003, Bush averaged a job approval rating of 71.4%, topping his first-year average of 67.1%.

Across the nearly 60 years Gallup has been tracking presidential approval with the current question wording, Bush's 2002-2003 average ranks eighth on the list of annual averages. It is roughly six points below the top reading, earned by President Harry Truman in his first year in office after succeeding Franklin D. Roosevelt. The only other presidents to exceed Bush on this list are Dwight Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, and Lyndon Johnson. Bush's rating is just slightly higher than what his father earned in 1991, including and following the Gulf War that earned him widespread, if temporal, public support. Several presidents never had a year with public approval strong enough to put them in the list of top 15 job approval ratings. In Bill Clinton's best year, commencing in January 1998, he received an average approval rating of 63.8%, ranking 17th on the full list of 60 ratings. Ronald Reagan's top annual approval score was just 60.4% in 1985-86, which ranks 24th.

Top 15 Yearly Average Presidential Approval Ratings, 1945-2002

Top 15 Years

Dates

Year in Presidency

Average

Cases

1

Truman

Apr 12, 1945-
Jan 19, 1946

1

77.3%

3

2

Kennedy

Jan 20, 1961-
Jan 19, 1962

1

76.4%

15

3

Johnson

Nov 22, 1963-
Jan 19, 1964

1

76.3%

3

4

Johnson

Jan 20, 1964-
Jan 19, 1965

2

73.4%

14

5

Eisenhower

Jan 20, 1955-
Jan 19, 1956

3

72.1%

15

6

Kennedy

Jan 20, 1962-
Jan 19, 1963

2

72.1%

13

7

Eisenhower

Jan 20, 1956-
Jan 19, 1957

4

71.9%

13

8

George W. Bush

Jan 20, 2002-
Jan 19, 2003

2

71.4%

46

9

George Bush

Jan 20, 1991-
Jan 19, 1992

3

69.5%

40

10

Eisenhower

Jan 20, 1953-
Jan 19, 1954

1

68.8%

14

11

George W. Bush

Jan 20, 2001-
Jan 19, 2002

1

67.1%

33

12

George Bush

Jan 20, 1990-
Jan 19, 1991

2

66.8%

32

13

George Bush

Jan 20, 1989-
Jan 19, 1990

1

65.9%

13

14

Eisenhower

Jan 20, 1954-
Jan 19, 1955

2

65.5%

16

15

Johnson

Jan 20, 1965-
Jan 19, 1966

3

65.4%

18

Bush's second-year average compares very favorably to what other presidents averaged in their second year in office. Only Johnson and Kennedy had higher second-year averages than Bush (Johnson had a 73.4% average approval rating in 1964-65 and Kennedy had a 72.1% rating in 1962-63). In fact, among recent presidents, only the elder George Bush (66.8%) had an average approval rating above 50% in his second year in office. Bill Clinton averaged 46.0% approval in 1994-95, Ronald Reagan 43.3% in 1982-83, Jimmy Carter 45.2% in 1978-79 and Gerald Ford 44.1% in 1975-76.

George W. Bush's term average approval rating of 69.3% so far has been exceeded only by John Kennedy's 70.1% for his brief tenure as president.

And in the most recent quarter (between Oct. 20, 2002 and Jan. 19, 2003), the eighth quarter of his presidency, Bush's average job approval rating was 63.5%. Among all presidential quarters dating back to 1945, this ranks in the top 30%. However, a graph of Bush's quarterly averages shows the unmistakable decline, and the most recent average is the lowest it has been for Bush since his second quarter as president.

George W. Bush's Quarterly
Job Approval Ratings

% "Approve"

How Does the Public View Bush Now?

Bush's job approval rating, from a Jan. 10-12 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, is 58% (although the most recent number out today has him at 61%). In the Jan. 10-12 poll, respondents were also asked if they thought Bush would continue to do a good (or a bad) job, or if they were unsure. Combining the results of that question with the approval question yields five groups. The largest group, 44% of Americans, says it currently approves of the job Bush is doing and expects him to continue to do a good job as president. About one in five, 18%, disapprove of Bush and expect him to continue to do a poor job. That leaves about two in five Americans who are not certain about Bush's future actions: 14% who currently approve but are unsure if he will continue to do a good job, 19% who disapprove but are unsure if he will continue to perform poorly, and 5% who do not have an opinion on Bush's performance thus far.

Evaluation of Bush in Present and Future
Jan. 10-12, 2003

Americans are also divided as to whether they will support Bush in the 2004 election. Thirty-four percent say they will definitely vote for Bush if he runs for re-election, 32% say they will definitely vote against him, and 32% say they might vote for or against him.

The same poll delved into Americans' views of the way Bush is handling specific issues. Among the eight issues tested, Bush gets his highest marks for his handling of national defense (63% approve) and education (57%).

Bush Job Approval on Issues

2003 Jan 10-12


Approve


Disapprove

%

%

National defense

63

32

Education

57

30

Foreign affairs

53

42

Taxes

49

45

The economy

48

47

The federal budget

43

47

Healthcare policy

41

44

Abortion

39

32

Fifty-three percent of the public currently approves of his handling of foreign affairs, but this reflects a sharp drop of 7 percentage points between the Jan. 3-5 and Jan. 10-12 polls. Americans are divided on his handling of the economy, with 48% approving and 47% disapproving. The disapproval scores on the economy (47%) and foreign affairs (42%) are the highest of Bush's presidency to date, and both approval ratings show rather dramatic declines from where they were shortly after Sept. 11.

George W. Bush's Job of Handling
the Economy and Foreign Affairs

% "Approve"

Fifty-nine percent believe Bush is paying the right amount of attention to the war on terrorism, but 55% say he is not paying enough attention to the economy. Both of these measures represent significantly less positive views than those expressed last July.

Ratings of Bush's personal characteristics -- especially his leadership qualities -- are much more positive than his approval ratings. Eighty-three percent of Americans say Bush is willing to make hard decisions and 76% say he is a strong and decisive leader. Additionally, 7 in 10 Americans believe Bush is honest and trustworthy, and roughly two-thirds say he has a vision for the country's future (68%), has brought dignity back to the White House (67%), can manage the government effectively (67%), inspires confidence (65%), and works well with both parties to get things done in Washington (64%).

Ratings of George W. Bush on
Personal Qualities and Characteristics

2003 Jan 10-12


Applies

Doesn't apply

%

%

Is willing to make hard decisions

83

15

Is a strong and decisive leader

76

23

Is honest and trustworthy

70

27

Has a vision for the country's future

68

29

Brought dignity back to the White House

67

30

Can manage the government effectively

67

31

Inspires confidence

65

34

Works well with both parties to get things done in Washington

64

31

Cares about the needs of people like you

56

41

Shares your values

54

43

One negative characteristic that many Americans associate with George W. Bush is that he is out of touch. When asked if Bush is "in touch or out of touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives," 50% say in touch and 48% say out of touch. A majority says he favors the rich (56%) rather than the middle class (24%) or the poor (2%). And more Americans say Bush got to be president "mainly because of his family's wealth and influence" (47%) than say he got there "on his own merits" (40%).

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,002 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Jan. 10-12, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2003

2003 Jan 10-12

58

37

5

2003 Jan 3-5

63

32

5

2002

2002 Dec 19-22

61

32

7

2002 Dec 16-17

63

33

4

2002 Dec 9-10

63

32

5

2002 Dec 5-8

64

29

7

2002 Nov 22-24

65

28

7

2002 Nov 11-14

66

26

8

2002 Nov 8-10

68

27

5

2002 Oct 31-Nov 3

63

29

8

2002 Oct 21-22

67

28

5

2002 Oct 14-17

62

31

7

2002 Oct 3-6

67

28

5

2002 Sep 23-26

68

26

6

2002 Sep 20-22

66

30

4

2002 Sep 13-16

70

26

4

2002 Sep 5-8

66

30

4

2002 Sep 2-4

66

29

5

2002 Aug 19-21

65

28

7

2002 Aug 5-8

68

26

6

2002 Jul 29-31

71

23

6

2002 Jul 26-28

69

26

5

2002 Jul 22-24

69

24

7

2002 Jul 9-11

73

21

6

2002 Jul 5-8

76

18

6

2002 Jun 28-30

76

19

5

2002 Jun 21-23

73

21

6

2002 Jun 17-19

74

20

6

2002 Jun 7-8

74

18

8

2002 Jun 3-6

70

23

7

2002 May 28-29

77

17

6

2002 May 20-22

76

17

7

2002 May 6-9

76

19

5

2002 Apr 29-May 1

77

20

3

2002 Apr 22-24

77

17

6

2002 Apr 8-11

75

20

5

2002 Apr 5-7

76

19

5

2002 Mar 22-24

79

17

4

2002 Mar 18-20

79

16

5

2002 Mar 8-9

80

14

6

2002 Mar 4-7

77

18

5

2002 Mar 1-3

81

14

5

2002 Feb 8-10

82

14

4

2002 Feb 4-6

82

14

4

2002 Jan 25-27

84

13

3

2002 Jan 11-14

83

13

4

2002 Jan 7-9

84

12

4


Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

2001

%

%

%

2001 Dec 14-16

86

11

3

2001 Dec 6-9

86

10

4

2001 Nov 26-27

87

8

5

2001 Nov 8-11

87

9

4

2001 Nov 2-4

87

9

4

2001 Oct 19-21

88

9

3

2001 Oct 11-14

89

8

3

2001 Oct 5-6

87

10

3

2001 Sep 21-22

90

6

4

2001 Sep 14-15

86

10

4

2001 Sep 7-10

51

39

10

2001 Aug 24-26

55

36

9

2001 Aug 16-19

57

34

9

2001 Aug 10-12

57

35

8

2001 Aug 3-5

55

35

10

2001 Jul 19-22

56

33

11

2001 Jul 10-11

57

35

8

2001 Jun 28-Jul 1

52

34

14

2001 Jun 11-17

55

33

12

2001 Jun 8-10

55

35

10

2001 May 18-20

56

36

8

2001 May 10-14

56

31

13

2001 May 7-9

53

33

14

2001 Apr 20-22

62

29

9

2001 Apr 6-8

59

30

11

2001 Mar 26-28

53

29

18

2001 Mar 9-11

58

29

13

2001 Mar 5-7

63

22

15

2001 Feb 19-21

62

21

17

2001 Feb 9-11

57

25

18

2001 Feb 1-4

57

25

18

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

Do you think George W. Bush will continue to do a good job as president, or are you unsure about that?

Do you think George W. Bush will continue to do a bad job as president, or are you unsure about that?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.1-3)

Approve, continue to do good job


Approve, unsure


Disapprove, unsure

Disapprove, continue to do bad job


No
opinion

2003 Jan 10-12

44%

14

19

18

5

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. The economy


Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

%

%

%

2003

2003 Jan 10-12

48

47

5

2003 Jan 3-5

49

47

4

2002

2002 Dec 9-10

49

47

4

2002 Nov 8-10

55

39

6

2002 Oct 21-22

49

44

7

2002 Jul 26-28

52

43

5

2002 Jul 5-8

58

36

6

2002 Jun 28-30

63

33

4

2002 May 20-22

61

29

10

2002 Apr 5-7 ^

60

33

7

2002 Mar 22-24

65

29

6

2002 Mar 1-3

64

31

5

2002 Feb 4-6

66

30

4

2002 Jan 25-27

64

30

6

2001

2001 Nov 2-4 ^

71

24

5

2001 Oct 5-6

72

23

5

2001 Jul 10-11

54

36

10

2001 May 18-20

51

41

8

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

55

38

7

2001 Mar 9-11

55

32

13

2001 Feb 1-4

53

27

20

^ Asked of half sample.

B. Foreign affairs


Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

%

%

%

2003

2003 Jan 10-12

53

42

5

2003 Jan 3-5

60

35

5

2002

2002 Dec 9-10

59

35

6

2002 Nov 8-10

59

36

5

2002 Oct 21-22

58

35

7

2002 Jul 26-28

63

30

7

2002 Jul 5-8

71

25

4

2002 Jun 28-30

66

27

7

2002 May 20-22

70

23

7

2002 Apr 5-7 ^

70

24

6

2002 Mar 22-24

71

22

7

2002 Mar 1-3

78

17

5

2002 Feb 4-6

79

16

5

2002 Jan 25-27

83

14

3

2001

2001 Oct 5-6

81

14

5

2001 Jul 10-11

54

33

13

2001 May 18-20

55

35

10

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

56

31

13

2001 Mar 9-11

52

27

21

2001 Feb 1-4

46

21

33

^ Asked of half sample.

C. Healthcare policy

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12

41

44

15

2002 Jul 26-28

47

40

13

2002 Mar 22-24 ^

52

37

11

^ Asked of half sample.

D. Education

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12

57

30

13

2002 Jul 26-28

62

27

11

2002 Mar 22-24 ^

63

26

11

2001 Jul 10-11

63

25

12

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

62

28

10

2001 Mar 9-11

65

22

13

^ Asked of half sample.

E. The federal budget

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12

43

47

10

2002 Mar 22-24 ^

51

37

12

2001 Apr 20-22

52

37

11

^ Asked of half sample.

F. Taxes

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12

49

45

6

2002 Mar 22-24 ^

64

29

7

2001 Jul 10-11

60

33

7

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

54

39

7

2001 Mar 9-11

56

35

9

^ Asked of half sample.

G. Abortion

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12

39

32

29

2002 Mar 22-24 ^

49

29

22

2001 Apr 20-22

43

37

20

^ Asked of half sample.

H. National Defense

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12

63

32

5

2002 Mar 22-24 ^

80

15

5

2001 May 18-20

59

32

9

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

66

23

11

^ Asked of half sample.

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to George W. Bush. How about -- [ROTATED]?

ITEMS A-E: BASED ON -- 483 -- NATIONAL ADULTS

ITEM F: BASED -- 1,002 -- NATIONAL ADULTS

ITEMS G-J: BASED ON -- 519 -- NATIONAL ADULTS

A. Works well with both parties to get things done in Washington

Applies

Doesn't apply

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12 ^

64

31

5

2002 Jul 26-28

65

30

5

2002 Apr 29-May 1

73

23

4

2000 Feb 25-27

55

37

8

^

Asked of a half sample.

B. Cares about the needs of people like you

Applies

Doesn't apply

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12 ^

56

41

3

2002 Nov 8-10

60

38

2

2002 Jul 26-28

60

36

4

2002 Apr 29-May 1

66

31

3

2001 Oct 5-6

69

29

2

2001 Jul 10-11

57

40

3

2001 Apr 20-22

59

39

2

2001 Feb 9-11

56

39

5

2000 Mar 10-12

51

42

7

2000 Jan 17-19

56

33

11

1999 Sep 10-14

59

32

9

1999 Mar 12-14

59

32

9

^

Asked of a half sample.

C. Is a strong and decisive leader

Applies

Doesn't apply

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12 ^

76

23

1

2002 Jul 26-28

70

27

3

2002 Apr 29-May 1

77

21

2

2001 Oct 5-6

75

23

2

2001 Aug 10-12

55

43

2

2001 Jul 10-11

57

40

3

2001 Apr 20-22

60

37

3

2001 Feb 9-11

61

34

5

2000 Mar 10-12

63

30

7

2000 Feb 25-27

61

32

7

2000 Feb 20-21

58

33

9

2000 Feb 4-6

62

30

8

2000 Jan 17-19

66

24

10

1999 Mar 4

60

14

26

^

Asked of a half sample.

D. Can manage the government effectively

Applies

Doesn't apply

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12 ^

67

31

2

2002 Jul 26-28

66

30

4

2002 Apr 29-May 1

75

21

4

2001 Oct 5-6

79

19

2

2001 Feb 9-11

61

31

8

2000 Mar 10-12

64

28

8

2000 Jan 17-19

66

22

12

1999 Sep 10-14

72

19

9

1999 Mar 12-14

77

15

8

^

Asked of a half sample.

E. Is honest and trustworthy

Applies

Doesn't apply

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12 ^

70

27

3

2002 Jul 26-28

69

26

5

2002 Apr 29-May 1

77

20

3

2001 Jul 10-11

66

31

3

2001 Apr 20-22

67

29

4

2001 Feb 9-11

64

29

7

2000 Mar 10-12

64

28

8

1999 Sep 10-12

62

29

9

^

Asked of a half sample.

F. Shares your values

Applies

Doesn't apply

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12

54

43

3

2002 Nov 8-10

66

31

3

2002 Jul 26-28

60

36

4

2002 Apr 29-May 1

67

30

3

2001 Aug 10-12

56

41

3

2001 Jul 10-11

56

40

4

2001 Apr 20-22

58

39

3

2001 Feb 9-11

57

39

4

2000 Mar 10-12

52

41

7

2000 Jan 17-19

55

32

13

1999 Sep 10-14

56

34

10

1999 Mar 12-14

58

31

11

G. Inspires confidence

Applies

Doesn't apply

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12 ^

65

34

1

2002 Jul 26-28

66

31

3

2001 Oct 5-6

75

24

1

2001 Apr 20-22

55

42

3

2001 Feb 9-11

57

39

4

2000 Mar 10-12

56

37

7

2000 Jan 17-19

60

29

11

^

Asked of a half sample.

H. Has a vision for the country's future

Applies

Doesn't apply

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12 ^

68

29

3

2001 Apr 20-22

74

23

3

2000 Mar 10-12

68

27

5

2000 Feb 20-21

61

31

8

2000 Jan 17-19

71

20

9

^

Asked of a half sample.

I. Is willing to make hard decisions

Applies

Doesn't apply

No opinion

2003 Jan 10-12 ^

83%

15

2

^

Asked of a half sample.

J. Brought dignity back to the White House

Applies

Doesn't apply

No opinion

2003 Jan 10-12 ^

67%

30

3

^

Asked of a half sample.

If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, would you say you will -- [ROTATED: definitely vote for him, might vote for or against him, or will you definitely vote against him]?


Definitely vote for

Might vote for or against


Definitely vote against


OTHER
(vol.)


No
opinion

National Adults

2003 Jan 10-12

34%

32

32

1

1

Registered Voters

2003 Jan 10-12

36%

31

32

*

1

(Vol.) Volunteered response

* Less than 5%

Would you say President Bush is in touch or out of touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives?

In touch

Out of touch

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12

50

48

2

2002 Apr 29-May 1

62

36

2

2001 Jul 10-11

47

50

3

Do you think President Bush is paying -- [ROTATED: too much attention, about the right amount of attention, or not enough attention] -- to the war on terrorism?

BASED ON -- 483 -- NATIONAL ADULTS

Too much

Right amount

Not enough

No opinion

%

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12

25

59

14

2

2002 Jul 26-28 ^

14

70

15

1

2002 Jan 11-14 ^

7

84

8

1

^

Asked of a full sample and rotated with Q.9. Trend results show when question was asked first in rotation.

Do you think President Bush is paying -- [ROTATED: too much attention, about the right amount of attention, or not enough attention] -- to the economy?

BASED ON -- 519 -- NATIONAL ADULTS

Too much

Right amount

Not enough

No opinion

%

%

%

%

2003 Jan 10-12

2

41

55

2

2002 Jul 26-28 ^

1

53

43

3

2002 Jan 11-14 ^

2

64

31

3

^

Asked of a full sample and rotated with Q.8. Trend results show when question was asked first in rotation.

Do you think George W. Bush got to be president mainly -- [ROTATED: based on his own merits, (or mainly) because of his family's wealth and influence]?


Own
merits

Family's influence/ wealth

BOTH EQUALLY (vol.)

NEITHER (vol.)

No
opinion

2003 Jan 10-12

40%

47

7

3

3

(vol.) Volunteered response

Thinking in general, do you think George W. Bush generally favors the rich, favors the middle class or favors the poor?

BASED ON -- 483 -- NATIONAL ADULTS


Favors
rich

Favors
middle
class

Favors
poor

FAVORS NONE/ ALL EQUALLY (vol.)

No
opinion

2003 Jan 10-12

56%

24

2

13

5

(vol.) Volunteered response


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