Bush Second-Year Approval Rating One of Best Ever

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Jan. 19 marks the conclusion of President George W. Bush's second year in office. For Bush, the news is a mixture of good and bad. On the plus side, his average job approval rating for his second year in office places as the eighth best of any president since Gallup began regularly tracking this measure around 1945. However, his approval rating continued to decline from its post-Sept. 11 record high as the year progressed and is just slightly better now than it was immediately prior to the terrorist attacks. While all of Bush's approval ratings in specific issue areas show declines, he still gets very positive ratings from the public on a wide range of personal characteristics. Roughly two in five Americans can be categorized as not having made up their minds on Bush, given that they are uncertain about how he is currently performing as president or how he will continue to perform in the future.

Bush Posts Eighth-Best Yearly Average

For his second full year in office, from Jan. 20, 2002 through Jan. 19, 2003, Bush averaged a job approval rating of 71.4%, topping his first-year average of 67.1%.

Across the nearly 60 years Gallup has been tracking presidential approval with the current question wording, Bush's 2002-2003 average ranks eighth on the list of annual averages. It is roughly six points below the top reading, earned by President Harry Truman in his first year in office after succeeding Franklin D. Roosevelt. The only other presidents to exceed Bush on this list are Dwight Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, and Lyndon Johnson. Bush's rating is just slightly higher than what his father earned in 1991, including and following the Gulf War that earned him widespread, if temporal, public support. Several presidents never had a year with public approval strong enough to put them in the list of top 15 job approval ratings. In Bill Clinton's best year, commencing in January 1998, he received an average approval rating of 63.8%, ranking 17th on the full list of 60 ratings. Ronald Reagan's top annual approval score was just 60.4% in 1985-86, which ranks 24th.

Top 15 Yearly Average Presidential Approval Ratings, 1945-2002

Bush's second-year average compares very favorably to what other presidents averaged in their second year in office. Only Johnson and Kennedy had higher second-year averages than Bush (Johnson had a 73.4% average approval rating in 1964-65 and Kennedy had a 72.1% rating in 1962-63). In fact, among recent presidents, only the elder George Bush (66.8%) had an average approval rating above 50% in his second year in office. Bill Clinton averaged 46.0% approval in 1994-95, Ronald Reagan 43.3% in 1982-83, Jimmy Carter 45.2% in 1978-79 and Gerald Ford 44.1% in 1975-76.

George W. Bush's term average approval rating of 69.3% so far has been exceeded only by John Kennedy's 70.1% for his brief tenure as president.

And in the most recent quarter (between Oct. 20, 2002 and Jan. 19, 2003), the eighth quarter of his presidency, Bush's average job approval rating was 63.5%. Among all presidential quarters dating back to 1945, this ranks in the top 30%. However, a graph of Bush's quarterly averages shows the unmistakable decline, and the most recent average is the lowest it has been for Bush since his second quarter as president.

George W. Bush's Quarterly Job Approval Ratings % "Approve"

How Does the Public View Bush Now?

Bush's job approval rating, from a Jan. 10-12 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, is 58% (although the most recent number out today has him at 61%). In the Jan. 10-12 poll, respondents were also asked if they thought Bush would continue to do a good (or a bad) job, or if they were unsure. Combining the results of that question with the approval question yields five groups. The largest group, 44% of Americans, says it currently approves of the job Bush is doing and expects him to continue to do a good job as president. About one in five, 18%, disapprove of Bush and expect him to continue to do a poor job. That leaves about two in five Americans who are not certain about Bush's future actions: 14% who currently approve but are unsure if he will continue to do a good job, 19% who disapprove but are unsure if he will continue to perform poorly, and 5% who do not have an opinion on Bush's performance thus far.

Evaluation of Bush in Present and Future

Jan. 10-12, 2003

Americans are also divided as to whether they will support Bush in the 2004 election. Thirty-four percent say they will definitely vote for Bush if he runs for re-election, 32% say they will definitely vote against him, and 32% say they might vote for or against him.

The same poll delved into Americans' views of the way Bush is handling specific issues. Among the eight issues tested, Bush gets his highest marks for his handling of national defense (63% approve) and education (57%).

Bush Job Approval on Issues

Fifty-three percent of the public currently approves of his handling of foreign affairs, but this reflects a sharp drop of 7 percentage points between the Jan. 3-5 and Jan. 10-12 polls. Americans are divided on his handling of the economy, with 48% approving and 47% disapproving. The disapproval scores on the economy (47%) and foreign affairs (42%) are the highest of Bush's presidency to date, and both approval ratings show rather dramatic declines from where they were shortly after Sept. 11.

George W. Bush's Job of Handling the Economy and Foreign Affairs % "Approve"

Fifty-nine percent believe Bush is paying the right amount of attention to the war on terrorism, but 55% say he is not paying enough attention to the economy. Both of these measures represent significantly less positive views than those expressed last July.

Ratings of Bush's personal characteristics -- especially his leadership qualities -- are much more positive than his approval ratings. Eighty-three percent of Americans say Bush is willing to make hard decisions and 76% say he is a strong and decisive leader. Additionally, 7 in 10 Americans believe Bush is honest and trustworthy, and roughly two-thirds say he has a vision for the country's future (68%), has brought dignity back to the White House (67%), can manage the government effectively (67%), inspires confidence (65%), and works well with both parties to get things done in Washington (64%).

Ratings of George W. Bush on
Personal Qualities and Characteristics

One negative characteristic that many Americans associate with George W. Bush is that he is out of touch. When asked if Bush is "in touch or out of touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives," 50% say in touch and 48% say out of touch. A majority says he favors the rich (56%) rather than the middle class (24%) or the poor (2%). And more Americans say Bush got to be president "mainly because of his family's wealth and influence" (47%) than say he got there "on his own merits" (40%).

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,002 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Jan. 10-12, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

Do you think George W. Bush will continue to do a good job as president, or are you unsure about that?

Do you think George W. Bush will continue to do a bad job as president, or are you unsure about that?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.1-3)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. The economy

B. Foreign affairs

C. Healthcare policy

D. Education

E. The federal budget

F. Taxes

G. Abortion

H. National Defense

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to George W. Bush. How about -- [ROTATED]?

ITEMS A-E: BASED ON -- 483 -- NATIONAL ADULTS

ITEM F: BASED -- 1,002 -- NATIONAL ADULTS

ITEMS G-J: BASED ON -- 519 -- NATIONAL ADULTS

A. Works well with both parties to get things done in Washington

B. Cares about the needs of people like you

C. Is a strong and decisive leader

D. Can manage the government effectively

E. Is honest and trustworthy

F. Shares your values

G. Inspires confidence

H. Has a vision for the country's future

I. Is willing to make hard decisions

J. Brought dignity back to the White House

If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, would you say you will -- [ROTATED: definitely vote for him, might vote for or against him, or will you definitely vote against him]?

Would you say President Bush is in touch or out of touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives?

Do you think President Bush is paying -- [ROTATED: too much attention, about the right amount of attention, or not enough attention] -- to the war on terrorism?

BASED ON -- 483 -- NATIONAL ADULTS

Do you think President Bush is paying -- [ROTATED: too much attention, about the right amount of attention, or not enough attention] -- to the economy?

BASED ON -- 519 -- NATIONAL ADULTS

Do you think George W. Bush got to be president mainly -- [ROTATED: based on his own merits, (or mainly) because of his family's wealth and influence]?

Thinking in general, do you think George W. Bush generally favors the rich, favors the middle class or favors the poor?

BASED ON -- 483 -- NATIONAL ADULTS