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The Demographics of the 2004 Vote

by Frank Newport and Joseph Carroll

It's much too early to forecast the eventual outcome of next year's election, but it's never too early to begin analyzing the way the election is shaping up.

George W. Bush has announced that he will run for re-election and is well underway with his major fundraising activities, but his Democratic opponent is ultimately still unknown at this point. There are at least nine Democratic candidates vying for their party's nomination and Gallup's analysis of historical patterns and current trial heat polling suggest that almost any of the Democratic candidates could eventually be nominated next July at the Democratic convention in Boston.

Thus, Gallup's approach so far this year has been to pit George W. Bush against "the Democratic candidate" in its research, a procedure that functions mainly as a generic re-elect measure and allows us to track the president's re-electability.

There has been some movement on the measure, with Bush hitting a high point of a 56% to 31% gap over the Democratic candidate back in October 2002, to a low point of 45% for Bush and 42% for the Democratic candidate on the eve of war in Iraq in March 2003.

The most recent Gallup Poll in which this measure was included was conducted July 25-27, and Bush's margin climbed slightly to 48% to 40% among the total adult population (and a 49% to 40% margin among registered voters).

But the focus of this article is the pattern of support for Bush and for his (as yet unknown) opponent.

It is obvious to all observers that Republicans will vote overwhelmingly for their party's candidate and Democrats for theirs, and that independents will end up being somewhere in the middle. The current partisan alignment in the United States is roughly one-third Republican, one-third independent, and one-third Democrat. Bush's lead comes about because Republicans are slightly stronger in their support for Bush than Democrats are in their opposition and because independents break for Bush rather than the Democrats.

The table below shows the relative ordering of support for Bush over the Democratic candidate within various combinations of the population based on party affiliation and ideology. This table is based on three different Gallup Poll samples*, for a combined total of 3,394 interviews. Across these three polls -- conducted June 12-18, 2003, July 18-20, 2003, and July 25-27, 2003 -- the overall breakout of projected voting for this large combined sample is 49% for Bush and 39% for the Democratic candidate. (Note that these data are among all national adults 18 and older, whether or not they are registered to vote at this point.)

Bush Versus Democratic Candidate

Based on Partisan and Ideological Subgroups

Bush

Democratic candidate

N=

NET

%

%

Party and Ideology

White Conservative Republicans

95

2

627

93

White Male Republicans

93

4

477

89

Southern Republicans

92

5

402

87

Midwestern Republicans

91

5

242

86

All White Republicans

91

5

964

86

White Female Republicans

89

6

487

83

Total Republicans

89

6

1,091

83

Eastern Republicans

84

6

229

78

Western Republicans

85

10

218

75

White Moderate/Liberal Republicans

83

10

334

74

White Male Conservatives

81

13

543

68

All White Conservatives

76

17

1,078

59

White Female Conservatives

70

21

535

49

Total Conservatives

68

24

1,343

44

White Male Independents

53

29

474

24

Southern Independents

50

27

349

23

White Male Moderates

53

33

455

20

All White Independents

48

31

950

17

All White Moderates

50

36

977

14

Total Independents

44

34

1,245

10

White Female Independents

44

34

476

10

White Female Moderates

47

38

523

9

Western Independents

42

35

293

8

Midwestern Independents

42

35

316

7

Total Moderates

44

41

1,312

3

Eastern Independents

41

41

287

0

White Male Liberals

26

61

220

-35

All White Liberals

23

66

513

-43

Total Liberals

21

67

704

-46

White Female Liberals

21

69

293

-48

White Conservative Democrats

19

71

165

-52

White Male Democrats

17

75

277

-58

Southern Democrats

14

79

333

-65

Western Democrats

14

79

230

-65

All White Democrats

14

79

671

-65

Total Democrats

13

80

1,053

-67

Eastern Democrats

12

80

258

-68

White Moderate/Liberal Democrats

12

82

501

-70

White Female Democrats

11

82

394

-71

Midwestern Democrats

10

83

229

-73

It is intriguing to look beyond party identification, and identify the patterns of support for Bush versus the Democratic candidate based on demographic and geographic characteristics of the electorate.

The table below ignores partisan and ideological variables, leaving the list of voting intentions broken out by major demographic and geographic subgroups based on age, gender, education, income, race, religious behavior, and region of the country.

Bush Versus Demographic Candidate

Based on Demographic Subgroups

Bush

Democratic candidate

N=

NET

%

%

White Males Who Attend Church Weekly

71

20

283

51

All White Weekly Churchgoers

67

24

696

43

White Males Who Earn $50,000-$74,999

66

23

288

43

White Male College Graduates

67

24

181

43

White Males Who Attend Church Almost Weekly

68

25

126

43

White Males Who Attend Church Monthly

64

22

140

42

White Male Southerners

66

24

378

42

All White Southerners

65

26

779

39

White Males Aged 18 to 29

65

26

224

39

White Females Who Attend Church Weekly

64

26

412

39

All Whites Earning $50,000-$74,999

64

28

523

36

White Female Southerners

63

27

401

36

White Males With High School Education or Less

63

28

467

35

White Males Aged 50 to 64

62

29

324

33

All Whites Who Attend Church Almost Weekly

61

28

304

33

White Males Aged 30 to 49

61

28

504

33

White Males Who Earn $30,000-$49,999

63

31

314

32

White Males With Some College Education

60

28

401

32

All White Men

60

30

1,227

30

All White 18- to 29-Year-Olds

60

30

422

29

White Male Midwesterners

59

30

316

29

All Whites With Some College Education

59

30

842

29

White Males Who Earn $75,000 or more

59

31

347

28

All White College Graduates

59

31

373

28

White Females Who Earn $50,000-$74,999

60

33

235

27

All White 30- to 49-Year-Olds

58

32

1,027

26

While Male Easterners

59

33

275

26

White Females With Some College Education

58

32

440

26

White Females Who Attend Church Almost Weekly

56

30

178

26

White Males Who Earn $20,000-$29,999

57

32

115

25

All Whites Earning $75,000 or More

58

34

609

24

All Whites Who Attend Church Monthly

56

33

307

23

All Whites With High School Education or Less

55

32

1,002

23

All White Adults

55

34

2,585

21

All White 50- to 64-Year-Olds

55

34

653

21

White Males Who Seldom Attend Church

56

35

410

21

All Whites $30,000-$49,999

56

35

659

21

White Male Westerners

55

35

258

20

White Females Aged 30 to 49

55

35

522

20

White Females Aged 18 to 29

54

35

197

19

White Females Who Earn $75,000 or more

57

37

262

20

All Whites Earning $20, 000-$29,999

50

32

307

18

White Females Who Earn $20,000-$29,999

47

32

191

15

All White Midwesterners

51

37

673

14

White Females College Graduates

52

38

190

14

All White Easterners

51

37

608

14

All White Women

50

38

1,357

12

White Females With High School Education or Less

48

36

535

12

White Males Who Never Attend Church

50

38

257

12

All White Westerners

50

39

525

12

All Whites Who Seldom Attend Church

50

40

749

10

White Females Who Earn $30,000-$49,999

49

39

345

10

White Males Aged 65+

50

40

169

10

SAMPLE AVERAGE

49

39

10

White Females Aged 50 to 64

49

40

329

9

White Males Who Earn Less Than $20,000

50

41

105

9

White Males With Postgraduate Education

49

42

177

7

White Female Easterners

45

41

332

4

All Whites Aged 65 and Older

45

42

467

3

White Females Who Attend Church Monthly

41

41

169

0

White Females Who Seldom Attend Church

46

46

338

0

White Females Who Never Attend Church

49

49

248

0

White Female Midwesterners

43

43

355

0

White Female Westerners

42

42

267

0

White Females Aged 65+

43

43

297

0

All White Who Never Attend Church

42

44

505

-2

All Whites Earning Less Than $20,000

43

45

353

-2

All Hispanic Adults

42

47

207

-5

All Whites With Postgraduate Education

43

49

362

-6

White Females Who Earn Less Than $20,000

40

47

248

-7

White Females With Postgraduate Education

37

57

186

-20

Black Men

10

70

155

-60

All Black Adults

10

74

360

-64

Black Women

11

77

205

-66

Here are the key points:

  • Race is highly significant. Blacks are overwhelmingly likely to say they will vote for the Democratic candidate for president and whites say they will vote for Bush. This is not surprising. Only about 9% of blacks were estimated to have voted for George W. Bush in the 2000 election, and the results suggest a continuation of the same pattern.

    Hispanics at this point are also leaning toward the Democratic candidate by 47% to 42% -- a five-point margin over Bush -- although this is nowhere near the same level as found among blacks.

  • Gender is also a highly significant variable in relationship to vote intention, although it is mediated by other characteristics such as age, education, and religious behavior.

    White women favor Bush over the Democratic candidate by 50% to 38%, while white men favor Bush by 60% to 30%. The gender gap, then, is 18 points -- comparing Bush's margin of 30 points among white men to his margin of 12 points among white women.

    There is virtually no difference in the voting preferences of black men and black women. Both groups overwhelmingly support the Democratic candidate.

  • The major difference in vote intention by education comes between white voters who have postgraduate educations and those who do not. Both white men and white women who have education beyond the college level are significantly above average in their support for the Democratic candidate for president.

    White women with postgraduate degrees favor the Democratic candidate over Bush by a 20-percentage-point margin, while men with postgraduate education favor Bush by only a slim six-point margin. More generally, whites with postgraduate educations (regardless of gender) favor the Democratic candidate over Bush by seven points. In sharp contrast, whites who have graduated from college but have no postgraduate degree favor Bush by a 28-point margin.

  • Church attendance is significantly related to vote choice, with those white Americans who attend church regularly much more likely to support Bush than those who attend church less frequently.

    The most extreme example of this tendency comes from a comparison of those whites who attend church every week with those who say they never attend church. Bush wins among the former by a 44-point margin, 67% to 24%, while he loses among the latter by a one-point margin.

    The group identified in this research with the highest level of support of all for Bush is white males who attend church weekly -- coming in with a 71% to 20% preference for Bush over the Democratic candidate.

  • There are regional differences in white support for Bush. His strongest support comes among white Southerners, among whom he wins by a margin of 39 points. His weakest geographic region of the county is the West, where he wins by only a 12-point margin among whites.
  • Bush has weak support among whites with the lowest incomes.

*The results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 3,394 adults, aged 18 and older, compiled from polls conducted June 12-18, 2003; July 18-20, 2003; and July 25-27, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±2 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/8989/demographics-2004-vote.aspx
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