The Demographics of the 2004 Vote

It's much too early to forecast the eventual outcome of next year's election, but it's never too early to begin analyzing the way the election is shaping up.

George W. Bush has announced that he will run for re-election and is well underway with his major fundraising activities, but his Democratic opponent is ultimately still unknown at this point. There are at least nine Democratic candidates vying for their party's nomination and Gallup's analysis of historical patterns and current trial heat polling suggest that almost any of the Democratic candidates could eventually be nominated next July at the Democratic convention in Boston.

Thus, Gallup's approach so far this year has been to pit George W. Bush against "the Democratic candidate" in its research, a procedure that functions mainly as a generic re-elect measure and allows us to track the president's re-electability.

There has been some movement on the measure, with Bush hitting a high point of a 56% to 31% gap over the Democratic candidate back in October 2002, to a low point of 45% for Bush and 42% for the Democratic candidate on the eve of war in Iraq in March 2003.

The most recent Gallup Poll in which this measure was included was conducted July 25-27, and Bush's margin climbed slightly to 48% to 40% among the total adult population (and a 49% to 40% margin among registered voters).

But the focus of this article is the pattern of support for Bush and for his (as yet unknown) opponent.

It is obvious to all observers that Republicans will vote overwhelmingly for their party's candidate and Democrats for theirs, and that independents will end up being somewhere in the middle. The current partisan alignment in the United States is roughly one-third Republican, one-third independent, and one-third Democrat. Bush's lead comes about because Republicans are slightly stronger in their support for Bush than Democrats are in their opposition and because independents break for Bush rather than the Democrats.

The table below shows the relative ordering of support for Bush over the Democratic candidate within various combinations of the population based on party affiliation and ideology. This table is based on three different Gallup Poll samples*, for a combined total of 3,394 interviews. Across these three polls -- conducted June 12-18, 2003, July 18-20, 2003, and July 25-27, 2003 -- the overall breakout of projected voting for this large combined sample is 49% for Bush and 39% for the Democratic candidate. (Note that these data are among all national adults 18 and older, whether or not they are registered to vote at this point.)

Bush Versus Democratic Candidate
Based on Partisan and Ideological Subgroups
	Bush	Democratic candidate	N=	NET
	%	%
Party and Ideology
White Conservative Republicans	95	2	627	93
White Male Republicans	93	4	477	89
Southern Republicans	92	5	402	87
Midwestern Republicans	91	5	242	86
All White Republicans	91	5	964	86
White Female Republicans	89	6	487	83
Total Republicans	89	6	1,091	83
Eastern Republicans	84	6	229	78
Western Republicans	85	10	218	75
White Moderate/Liberal Republicans	83	10	334	74
White Male Conservatives	81	13	543	68
All White Conservatives	76	17	1,078	59
White Female Conservatives	70	21	535	49
Total Conservatives	68	24	1,343	44
White Male Independents	53	29	474	24
Southern Independents	50	27	349	23
White Male Moderates	53	33	455	20
All White Independents	48	31	950	17
All White Moderates	50	36	977	14
Total Independents	44	34	1,245	10
White Female Independents	44	34	476	10
White Female Moderates	47	38	523	9
Western Independents	42	35	293	8
Midwestern Independents	42	35	316	7
Total Moderates	44	41	1,312	3
Eastern Independents	41	41	287	0
White Male Liberals	26	61	220	-35
All White Liberals	23	66	513	-43
Total Liberals	21	67	704	-46
White Female Liberals	21	69	293	-48
White Conservative Democrats	19	71	165	-52
White Male Democrats	17	75	277	-58
Southern Democrats	14	79	333	-65
Western Democrats	14	79	230	-65
All White Democrats	14	79	671	-65
Total Democrats	13	80	1,053	-67
Eastern Democrats	12	80	258	-68
White Moderate/Liberal Democrats	12	82	501	-70
White Female Democrats	11	82	394	-71
Midwestern Democrats	10	83	229	-73

It is intriguing to look beyond party identification, and identify the patterns of support for Bush versus the Democratic candidate based on demographic and geographic characteristics of the electorate.

The table below ignores partisan and ideological variables, leaving the list of voting intentions broken out by major demographic and geographic subgroups based on age, gender, education, income, race, religious behavior, and region of the country.

Bush Versus Demographic Candidate
Based on Demographic Subgroups
	Bush	Democratic candidate	N=	NET
	%	%
White Males Who Attend Church Weekly	71	20	283	51
All White Weekly Churchgoers	67	24	696	43
White Males Who Earn $50,000-$74,999	66	23	288	43
White Male College Graduates	67	24	181	43
White Males Who Attend Church Almost Weekly	68	25	126	43
White Males Who Attend Church Monthly	64	22	140	42
White Male Southerners	66	24	378	42
All White Southerners	65	26	779	39
White Males Aged 18 to 29	65	26	224	39
White Females Who Attend Church Weekly	64	26	412	39
All Whites Earning $50,000-$74,999	64	28	523	36
White Female Southerners	63	27	401	36
White Males With High School Education or Less	63	28	467	35
White Males Aged 50 to 64	62	29	324	33
All Whites Who Attend Church Almost Weekly	61	28	304	33
White Males Aged 30 to 49	61	28	504	33
White Males Who Earn $30,000-$49,999	63	31	314	32
White Males With Some College Education	60	28	401	32
All White Men	60	30	1,227	30
All White 18- to 29-Year-Olds	60	30	422	29
White Male Midwesterners	59	30	316	29
All Whites With Some College Education	59	30	842	29
White Males Who Earn $75,000 or more	59	31	347	28
All White College Graduates	59	31	373	28
White Females Who Earn $50,000-$74,999	60	33	235	27
All White 30- to 49-Year-Olds	58	32	1,027	26
While Male Easterners	59	33	275	26
White Females With Some College Education	58	32	440	26
White Females Who Attend Church Almost Weekly	56	30	178	26
White Males Who Earn $20,000-$29,999	57	32	115	25
All Whites Earning $75,000 or More	58	34	609	24
All Whites Who Attend Church Monthly	56	33	307	23
All Whites With High School Education or Less	55	32	1,002	23
All White Adults	55	34	2,585	21
All White 50- to 64-Year-Olds	55	34	653	21
White Males Who Seldom Attend Church	56	35	410	21
All Whites $30,000-$49,999	56	35	659	21
White Male Westerners	55	35	258	20
White Females Aged 30 to 49	55	35	522	20
White Females Aged 18 to 29	54	35	197	19
White Females Who Earn $75,000 or more	57	37	262	20
All Whites Earning $20, 000-$29,999	50	32	307	18
White Females Who Earn $20,000-$29,999	47	32	191	15
All White Midwesterners	51	37	673	14
White Females College Graduates	52	38	190	14
All White Easterners	51	37	608	14
All White Women	50	38	1,357	12
White Females With High School Education or Less	48	36	535	12
White Males Who Never Attend Church	50	38	257	12
All White Westerners	50	39	525	12
All Whites Who Seldom Attend Church	50	40	749	10
White Females Who Earn $30,000-$49,999	49	39	345	10
White Males Aged 65+	50	40	169	10
SAMPLE AVERAGE	49	39		10
White Females Aged 50 to 64	49	40	329	9
White Males Who Earn Less Than $20,000	50	41	105	9
White Males With Postgraduate Education	49	42	177	7
White Female Easterners	45	41	332	4
All Whites Aged 65 and Older	45	42	467	3
White Females Who Attend Church Monthly	41	41	169	0
White Females Who Seldom Attend Church	46	46	338	0
White Females Who Never Attend Church	49	49	248	0
White Female Midwesterners	43	43	355	0
White Female Westerners	42	42	267	0
White Females Aged 65+	43	43	297	0
All White Who Never Attend Church	42	44	505	-2
All Whites Earning Less Than $20,000	43	45	353	-2
All Hispanic Adults	42	47	207	-5
All Whites With Postgraduate Education	43	49	362	-6
White Females Who Earn Less Than $20,000	40	47	248	-7
White Females With Postgraduate Education	37	57	186	-20
Black Men	10	70	155	-60
All Black Adults	10	74	360	-64
Black Women	11	77	205	-66

Here are the key points:

• Race is highly significant. Blacks are overwhelmingly likely to say they will vote for the Democratic candidate for president and whites say they will vote for Bush. This is not surprising. Only about 9% of blacks were estimated to have voted for George W. Bush in the 2000 election, and the results suggest a continuation of the same pattern.
  
  Hispanics at this point are also leaning toward the Democratic candidate by 47% to 42% -- a five-point margin over Bush -- although this is nowhere near the same level as found among blacks.
  
  
• Gender is also a highly significant variable in relationship to vote intention, although it is mediated by other characteristics such as age, education, and religious behavior.
  
  White women favor Bush over the Democratic candidate by 50% to 38%, while white men favor Bush by 60% to 30%. The gender gap, then, is 18 points -- comparing Bush's margin of 30 points among white men to his margin of 12 points among white women.
  
  There is virtually no difference in the voting preferences of black men and black women. Both groups overwhelmingly support the Democratic candidate.
  
  
• The major difference in vote intention by education comes between white voters who have postgraduate educations and those who do not. Both white men and white women who have education beyond the college level are significantly above average in their support for the Democratic candidate for president.
  
  White women with postgraduate degrees favor the Democratic candidate over Bush by a 20-percentage-point margin, while men with postgraduate education favor Bush by only a slim six-point margin. More generally, whites with postgraduate educations (regardless of gender) favor the Democratic candidate over Bush by seven points. In sharp contrast, whites who have graduated from college but have no postgraduate degree favor Bush by a 28-point margin.
  
  
• Church attendance is significantly related to vote choice, with those white Americans who attend church regularly much more likely to support Bush than those who attend church less frequently.
  
  The most extreme example of this tendency comes from a comparison of those whites who attend church every week with those who say they never attend church. Bush wins among the former by a 44-point margin, 67% to 24%, while he loses among the latter by a one-point margin.
  
  The group identified in this research with the highest level of support of all for Bush is white males who attend church weekly -- coming in with a 71% to 20% preference for Bush over the Democratic candidate.
  
  
• There are regional differences in white support for Bush. His strongest support comes among white Southerners, among whom he wins by a margin of 39 points. His weakest geographic region of the county is the West, where he wins by only a 12-point margin among whites.

• Bush has weak support among whites with the lowest incomes.

*The results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 3,394 adults, aged 18 and older, compiled from polls conducted June 12-18, 2003; July 18-20, 2003; and July 25-27, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±2 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.