The Metrics That Matter for Election 2020

The percentage of Americans who approve of the job the incumbent president is doing at any given time. Incumbent job approval has been a strong predictor of reelection, historically.

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The percentage of Americans who are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. U.S. satisfaction gives an indication of Americans’ desire for change in the upcoming election.

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Gallup's Economic Confidence Index (ECI) is the average of two components: Americans' ratings of current economic conditions and their views of whether the economy is getting better or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100, if all Americans believe the economy is excellent or good and getting better. The theoretical minimum is -100, achieved if all Americans say the economy is poor and getting worse. From George H.W. Bush through Barack Obama, ECI scores were closely aligned with job approval: Positive ECI was typically associated with 50% or greater presidential job approval and therefore incumbent reelection.

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An open-ended measure of what Americans believe to be the most important problem facing the U.S. The percentage of Americans citing economic issues is a good indicator of the importance of the U.S. economy as an election issue.

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The percentage of Americans identifying their party as Democratic (or who lean Democratic) minus the percentage identifying as Republican, or leaning Republican. Since 1992, Democrats have averaged a six-percentage-point advantage in party identification and leaning in presidential election years, ranging from a low of three points to a high of 12 points. The size of the Democratic advantage offers a view of potential voting patterns for presidential elections.

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The percentage of Americans who have a favorable view of the incumbent president and, separately, the opposition candidate for the presidency. Typically, the more favorably rated candidate has won presidential elections.

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The percentage of Americans saying they have given "quite a lot" thought to the upcoming presidential election when asked using a Gallup question wording instituted in 1952. The amount of thought given to an election is an important indicator of voter engagement and relates to voter turnout in national elections. Higher percentages of Americans giving "quite a lot" of thought to the election have corresponded with higher levels of voter turnout.

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The percentage of Americans who say they are "more enthusiastic than usual" about voting in the election rather than "less enthusiastic." While not strongly related to voter turnout, per se, the relative enthusiasm of Republicans and Democrats has often provided an indication of which party’s candidate will win.

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