skip to main content

2024 U.S. Presidential Election Center

Essential Public Opinion Indicators for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Investigate Gallup's trends on American public sentiment related to the 2024 presidential election.

timeline of presidents
timeline of presidents

01 Incumbent Presidential Job Approval

Metric Overview: This indicator shows the percentage of Americans approving of the incumbent president's job performance.

Why This Matters: Job approval ratings close to Election Day are highly predictive of whether incumbent presidents are reelected.

quotes
Survey Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of the way [current president] is handling his job as president?

02 U.S. Satisfaction

Metric Overview: This indicator shows the percentage of Americans satisfied with the country's current direction. U.S. satisfaction is a key measure of the public's desire for change in an upcoming election.

Why This Matters: Low satisfaction levels may signal a public desire for changes in leadership.

quotes
Survey Question:
In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

03 Economic Confidence

Metric Overview: This measure combines Americans' views on current economic conditions and their view of the economy's direction to produce an index value ranging from +100 (optimal confidence) to -100 (complete pessimism).

Why This Matters: Voters often look to the economy when assessing how the nation is doing and how well elected leaders are performing their jobs. The economy is usually one of the top election issues.

quotes
Survey Question:
1. How would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- as excellent, good, only fair or poor?
2. Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?

04 Economic Concern

Metric Overview: This tracks Americans' mentions of the economy when asked to name, in their own words, the most important problem facing the country.

Why This Matters: The percentage of Americans citing economic issues as the most important problem is a good indicator of the importance of the U.S. economy as an election issue.

quotes
Survey Question:
What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?(Open-ended)

05 Party Affiliation

Metric Overview: This indicator shows the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as or leaning Democratic minus the percentage identifying as or leaning Republican. These party trends date back to 1992 when Gallup began routinely asking independents the "leaner" question.

Why This Matters: The size of the Democratic advantage offers a view of potential voting patterns in presidential elections.

quotes
Survey Question:
In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent? (If independent)Do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

Subscribe to the Front Page newsletter for weekly insights on the world's most pressing topics.

(*) Required

 

Our Experts

Gallup experts can provide commentary and analysis on a variety of U.S. and global topics.

Request to speak with a Gallup expert.

Mohamed Younis
Mohamed Younis
Editor-in-Chief
Areas of Expertise: U.S. Polling & Research, Global Polling & Research

Full Bio of Mohamed Younis

Lydia Saad
Lydia Saad
Director of U.S. Social Research
Areas of Expertise: U.S. Polling & Research

Full Bio of Lydia Saad

Jeffrey Jones, Ph.D.
Jeffrey Jones, Ph.D.
Senior Editor
Areas of Expertise: U.S. Polling & Research

Full Bio of Jeffrey Jones, Ph.D.

Megan Brenan
Megan Brenan
Research Consultant
Areas of Expertise: U.S. Polling & Research

Full Bio of Megan Brenan