Nationally: Two-Candidate Race for Democratic Nomination?

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- In less than a week, the voters in Iowa will have indicated their preferences for the Democratic Party's nominee for president, setting the stage for a substantial realignment in the rank order of candidates among Democratic voters nationally.

Polls in Iowa show that former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt are in a competitive race for first, while Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards are hoping to produce a strong showing.

Nationally, the picture looks quite different. A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey finds that the contest for the Democratic nomination right now is becoming more of a two-man race between Dean and retired Gen. Wesley Clark -- who declined to run in the Iowa caucuses, citing his late entry into the presidential contest.

The poll shows Dean receiving 26% of the vote among registered Democrats nationally, closely followed by Clark with 20%. No other candidate reaches double-digits.

The gap between the two front-runners and the rest of the pack is made even more clear by the rank order of the candidates as either the first or second choice of Democratic voters.

PERCENT WHO MENTION EACH CANDIDATE AS ONE OF TOP TWO CHOICES

Two months ago, the Nov. 10-12 poll showed essentially a five-way tie among the candidates, with each one named by at least 20% of voters as one of their top two choices. But the current results show 45% of voters naming Dean among the top two choices, compared with 34% for Clark. Gephardt, Kerry, and Lieberman each receive about half the support that Clark does, with Edwards receiving only a third of Clark's support. Only Clark and Dean have made gains on this measure since the last measurement in November.

It is quite possible that these national numbers will change after the Iowa caucuses. If Gephardt makes a stronger than expected showing, either by beating Dean or coming in a very close second, that could affect both candidates' standings in New Hampshire. Similarly, if Edwards or Kerry come in a strong third place, that showing could energize their support in New Hampshire -- where recent polls show Dean leading by a substantial margin, and Kerry and Clark vying for second place.

General Election

At this point in the race, none of the major Democratic candidates does better in a hypothetical match-up with Bush than any of the others. Bush leads each of four Democrats by essentially the same 12- to 15-percentage-point margin.

If [Democratic candidate named] were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? As of today, do you lean more toward --

It is clearly too early to use these numbers as predictions of the November election, though they do provide insights as to the current electoral strength of the candidates.

• Bush is in a good position at this time. With the capture of Saddam Hussein, and improvements in the economy, his job approval rating -- currently at 59% -- and his electoral strength against possible Democratic candidates have improved.

• Although the results presented here are for "likely" voters, the poll shows little difference between the preferences of likely voters (representing about half the adult population) and the preferences of the larger population of "registered" voters.

• Bush's advantage over Dean among registered voters has been as low as 3 percentage points (last September), and as high as 23 points (in mid-December).

• Shortly after Clark announced his candidacy, he enjoyed a 3-point margin among registered voters over Bush (in a Sept. 19-21 poll), but in mid-December, Bush's advantage was 16 points.

• While some political observers, as well as Democratic candidates, have suggested that Dean is less electable than other Democrats, the poll provides no corroborating evidence. At this point of the campaign, each of the major candidates appears about as strong as the other.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 9-11, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 793 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 900 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 455 Democrats and Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 410 Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

3. Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004. [ROTATED:Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Missouri Congressman, Dick Gephardt, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich, Former Illinois Senator, Carol Moseley Braun, Retired General, Wesley Clark]

BASED ON 410 DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE

BASED ON 455 DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Q.3 (DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION BALLOT) CONTINUED

4. Who would be your second choice?

BASED ON 410 DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE

BASED ON 455 DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.3-4); percentages total more than 100% due to multiple responses

Next, we'd like you to think about the general election for President to be held this year, that is in November 2004.

Q5-5A -- Q.8-8A ROTATED

5. If retired General Wesley Clark were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Wesley Clark, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?

5A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Clark, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?

6. If former Vermont Governor Howard Dean were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Howard Dean, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?

6A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Dean, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?

7. If Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Dick Gephardt, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?

7A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Gephardt, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?

8. If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?

8A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?