Hillary Clinton's Gender Advantage

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has a substantially more favorable image among women than among men -- a gender advantage that persists even among Republicans and independents. This suggests that Clinton has the potential to draw the votes of women who might ordinarily not consider voting for a Democratic candidate in the 2008 presidential election. Clinton also has a more positive image among younger voters, but has a less positive image among both men and women who are married.

Background

Clinton, at this early stage, is the front-runner for the Democratic nomination for president in 2008. That status has been confirmed by a number of polls of Democrats, including two CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls conducted since the November 2004 presidential election. In the first such poll, Clinton was included along with Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, and was the top voter getter among Democrats. The second such poll, conducted Feb. 4-6, 2005, yielded similar results:

Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2008 -- [ROTATED: New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry]  --or would you support someone else?

BASED ON 423 DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
BASED ON 383 DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE

It is of course very early to use current poll results as an accurate predictive gauge of what will happen as the presidential primaries get underway in January 2008, less than three years from now. A review of Gallup Polls conducted in the two or three years before past presidential elections shows that the early indications often bear little relationship to what actually happened in those elections. In some years the early front-runner for the Democratic candidate was out of the running by the time the primaries began, while in other years the eventual nominee wasn't well known enough to be included in early polls -- if the person was included, they registered hardly any support (Jimmy Carter prior to 1976, Michael Dukakis prior to 1988, and Bill Clinton prior to 1992).

Furthermore, as Sen. Clinton herself points out frequently, she has the difficult challenge of facing the voters of New York in the 2006 Senate race, putting her in the awkward position of having to explain her future presidential plans while running to represent New York State in the Senate.

Still, Sen. Clinton is a universally known politician, and a person who has generated extraordinary attention since she first entered the national spotlight 13 years ago. These facts make a focus on her presidential potential both relevant and interesting, even at this early stage in the process.

Sen. Clinton's possible presidential candidacy generates even more interest because she would become the first woman to be a major party's presidential candidate, and of course, if elected president, she would become the first female president in the nation's history.

This raises a few questions: Would Sen. Clinton have an advantage in a general election in 2008 because she is a woman? Would female voters ordinarily inclined to vote for the Republican candidate have a greater tendency to vote for Sen. Clinton because of the opportunity to be a part of electing the first female president? Additionally, is there an age or marital factor in Sen. Clinton's appeal?

We gain some insights into the answers to these questions by analyzing Sen. Clinton's image among various demographic groups using a combined dataset of 4,001 interviews based on five separate surveys from 2003-2004 in which the public was asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her. Although having a favorable opinion of a politician is not necessarily the same thing as voting for him or her, at this juncture these favorability ratings can reasonably stand as surrogates for potential voting behavior.

The basic results show a significant gender gap in the public's opinions of Sen. Clinton:

Women are more likely than men to have a favorable opinion of Sen. Clinton, by a 10-point margin. But could this gender gap in favorable opinions of Sen. Clinton be caused, at least in part, by the fact that women tend to be more Democratic in their politics in general than are men?

To answer this question, the table below looks at the difference in the public's opinions of Sen. Clinton by gender within groups of Americans who identify themselves as Republicans, independents, and Democrats.

It is clear that the gender gap in the public's opinions of Sen. Clinton operates to some degree even within political categories:

• Republican women are 9 points higher in their favorable rating and 11 points lower in their unfavorable rating of Sen. Clinton than are Republican men.
  
• Women who are Independents are 12 points higher in their favorable rating and 12 points lower in their unfavorable rating of Sen. Clinton than are Independents who are men.
  
• There is fairly little gender distinction in favorable ratings of Sen. Clinton among Democrats, among whom both men and women are very positive.

While these are not huge differences, they do support the basic hypothesis that Sen. Clinton could bring to the table an advantage among Republican and independent women, an advantage that could make a difference in a close election. Of particular importance is the big difference between her image among independent men, which essentially breaks even, and her image among independent women, where her favorable ratings outweigh her unfavorable ratings by almost a 30-point margin.

The Age Factor

Sen. Clinton has a decidedly more positive image among Americans under age 30 than she does among those who are older:

The origins of this younger skew in appeal for Sen. Clinton are not immediately apparent (She is now 57 years old, and will be 61 at the time of the 2008 election). The ultimate value in a presidential election of having strong appeal to younger voters is also unclear. As was seen in this past year's election, having a strong appeal to the youngest group of voters does not automatically transfer into real votes, given the historic fact that the younger the voter, the less likely he or she is to actually turn out and vote.

There is an interesting gender and age interaction in the public's opinions of Sen. Clinton:

There is a significant gender gap in the public's opinions of Sen. Clinton among those aged 18 to 29 and among those aged 30 to 49, much less of a gap among 50- to 64-year-olds, and no gap among those 65 and older. In short, Sen. Clinton's strongest constituency would appear to be among women under age 50.

Does this age gap persist even when the partisan orientation of the respondent is controlled? To answer this question, we can look at the public's opinions of Sen. Clinton within age groups and within party orientation. In order to keep sample sizes as large as possible, in this chart those who are politically independent but who lean toward the Republican Party have been included with Republicans, and those who are independent and lean Democratic have been included with Democrats.

Here we see the persistence of the age gap in the public's favorable opinions of Sen. Clinton even within party groups. Clinton has a 40% favorable rating among 18- to 29-year-old Republicans, declining to 30% among Republicans aged 30 to 49, and then down to 22% and 20% among those aged 50 to 64 and 65 and older, respectively.

On the other hand, there is little difference in the public's opinions of Sen. Clinton among Democrats by age. About 8 in 10 Democrats have a favorable opinion of her regardless of age.

A Marriage Gap?

The data show a basic and substantial marriage gap in Sen. Clinton's appeal:

Americans who are not married have a significantly more favorable view of Sen. Clinton than those who are married.

Again, the basic nature of politics in America today holds possible explanations for these patterns. Married voters in general are more likely to be Republicans, while those who are not married are more likely to be Democrats.

The table examines the relationship between marital status and the public's opinions of Sen. Clinton within political groups:

The gap by marriage in the public's opinions of Sen. Clinton is evident among Republicans and independents, but much less so among Democrats. In other words, Sen. Clinton's image suffers among Republicans and independents who are married.

The marriage gap is evident among both genders, and is slightly larger among women.

Although the sample sizes involved here are small, the data suggest that the marriage gap persists among Republican women (with those who are married having a less favorable opinion of Sen. Clinton than those who are not married), and among Democratic men (with those married having a less favorable opinion).

Summary

Sen. Clinton appears to bring to the table a specific advantage among women and younger voters, and has more difficulty among married Americans, regardless of gender.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted in five separate surveys in 2003 and 2004, with national adults, aged 18 and older. The maximum margin of error for the data varies based on the sample sizes noted in the tables above. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.