With less than a month to go before Judge Samuel Alito's Supreme
Court confirmation hearings begin, pro- and anti-Alito camps are
stepping up their rhetoric. A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup
poll* finds Americans continue to generally support Alito's
confirmation to the high court, but this support is becoming
slightly more polarized along party lines.
The poll, conducted Dec. 9-11, finds that 49% of Americans say they
would like to see the Senate vote in favor of Alito serving on the
Supreme Court, while 29% say they would not, and 22% have no
opinion. Gallup first asked about Alito's confirmation in November,
and opinion has not changed substantially since. In early November,
50% were in favor of the Senate confirming Alito, 25% were opposed,
and 25% had no opinion.
Public Support for Alito vs. Miers and Roberts
Public support for Alito's confirmation to the court is slightly higher than it was for Harriet Miers, who withdrew her nomination after mounting criticism over her qualifications to serve on the Supreme Court. Alito's current level of support is about the same as John Roberts' about a month after he was nominated, though Roberts' support reached as high as 60% prior to his confirmation.
Forty-four percent of Americans supported Miers' confirmation just after Bush nominated her, while 36% were opposed. Shortly before Miers withdrew her nomination, Gallup found Americans evenly divided: 42% were in favor and 43% were opposed to her serving on the Supreme Court.
Across five polls conducted from the time Bush first nominated Roberts to the time when his Senate confirmation hearings first began, Gallup found that 56% of Americans, on average, supported Roberts' confirmation, while 26% opposed it and 18% offered no opinion. Support for Roberts began at 59% right after he was nominated, but dropped to 51% in early August and stayed at 52% in late August. In September, as Bush nominated Roberts to the chief justice position and his confirmation hearings began, support for Roberts serving on the court grew to 58% and then 60%.
Republicans More Likely Than Democrats to Support Alito Confirmation
Republicans and Democrats vary significantly in their overall level of support for Alito. More than 7 in 10 Republicans (73%) say the Senate should vote to confirm him, while just 12% say it should not. Democrats are much more likely to oppose (45%) than to support (29%) Alito's confirmation.
Since Gallup first asked this question about Alito in November, Democrats have grown slightly more negative about Alito's confirmation. In early November, 35% of Democrats said the Senate should confirm Alito, while 40% opposed it. Support for Alito among Republicans shows no change since November.
There were similar partisan gaps in Americans' support of both Roberts and Miers.
Bottom Line
Do the poll numbers reflect a nominee's chances to get confirmed to the Supreme Court? Gallup has polled the American public about its overall level of support for five recent Supreme Court nominees. The current 49% support level for Alito aligns him more closely with three individuals who were eventually confirmed -- Clarence Thomas in 1991 (an average of 52% support), Ruth Bader Ginsburg (53%), and Roberts (56%). Alito's support is higher than it was for two nominees who were not confirmed: Robert Bork averaged just 35% support in 1987 and Miers averaged 43% earlier this year.
*Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 9-11, 2005. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
