Pessimism Evident in Latest Poll on Iraq War

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- An update on Americans' views toward the war in Iraq finds some of the more pessimistic views Gallup has measured since the war began. A majority of Americans continue to say the war was a mistake and say that they oppose the war. Fewer than one in three Americans say the United States is winning, the lowest percentage Gallup has measured on that question to date.

The Feb. 9-12 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds 55% of Americans saying the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, while 42% disagree. On only one other occasion -- last September following Hurricane Katrina -- did more Americans, 59%, say the war was a mistake.

Gallup has asked this question about other wars involving the United States, and only the Vietnam War engendered more public opposition than the current Iraq War.

A question worded somewhat differently finds very similar results. Just 40% of Americans say they favor the war, while 56% are opposed to it. On this and the "mistake" question, most Republicans support the war and most Democrats oppose it.

Public Believes United States Not Winning the War

When asked to assess the progress of the war, only 31% say the United States and its allies are winning the war - the lowest Gallup has measured to date. A majority of Americans, 55%, say neither side is winning the war, while just 10% say the insurgents in Iraq are winning. Since the question was first asked in 2004, more than a year after the war started, the highest percentage saying the United States and its allies are winning the war was 44%, considerably less than a majority. The percentage that believes the insurgents are winning has ranged from 7% to 14%.

Republicans are much more optimistic about the United States' progress in the war than independents or Democrats. A majority of Republicans, 58%, say the United States is winning, while 4% say the insurgents and 35% say neither side. In contrast, just 12% of Democrats say the United States is winning -- fewer than say the insurgents are winning (17%). Two in three Democrats believe that neither side is currently winning.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,000 adults, aged 18 years and older, conducted Feb. 9-12, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. For results based on the 492 national adults in the Form A half-sample and 508 national adults in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Next, we'd like to ask you some questions about Iraq. First,

Q.11-12 SPLIT SAMPLED

11. In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?

12. Do you favor or oppose the U.S. war with Iraq?

BASED ON 508 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

13. Who do you think is currently winning the war in Iraq -- the U.S. and its allies, the insurgents in Iraq, or neither side?